Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves, A. Chawla, H.L. Tolman, D.J. Schwab, G.
|Title:||The Operational Implementation of a Great Lakes Wave Forecasting System at NOAA/NCEP
|Additional Bibliographic Information:||http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00049.1
|MMAB Contribution Number:||317
|Keywords:||Great Lakes wave forecasting
|Abstract:||The development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAAâs National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) is described. The system is an implementation of the WAVEWATCH III model,
forced with atmospheric data from NCEPâs regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (the
North American Mesoscale Model,NAM)and the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Reviews are
made of previous Great Lakes wave modeling efforts. The development history of NCEPâs Great Lakes wave
forecasting system is presented. A performance assessment is made of model wind speeds, as well as wave
heights and periods, relative to National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) measurements. Performance comparisons
are made relative to NOAAâs Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) wave
prediction system. Results show that 1- and 2-day forecasts from NCEP have good skill in predicting wave
heights and periods. NCEPâs system provides a better representation of measured wave periods, relative to
the GLERLmodel in most conditions. Wave heights during storms, however, are consistently underestimated
by NCEPâs current operational system, whereas the GLERL model provides close agreement with observations.
Research efforts to develop new wave-growth parameterizations and overcome this limitation, have
led to upgrades to theWAVEWATCHIII model, scheduled to become operational at NCEP in 2013. Results
are presented from numerical experiments made with the new wave-model physics, showing significant improvements
to the skill of NCEPâs Great Lakes wave forecasting system in predicting storm wave heights.
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