Environmental Modeling Center Environmental Modeling Center Environmental Modeling Center United States Department of Commerce

Combined NCEP/FNMOC Wave Ensembles Product

The content provided on this page supports model development. These are not official NWS products and should not be relied upon for operational purposes. This web site is not subject to 24/7 support, and thus may be unavailable during system outages.

Operationally generated graphics of the wave fields (no spectra or source terms) are available from Model Analyses and Guidance.

Bulletin files are available from the Production FTP/HTTPS server. Look for gfs.YYYYMMDD/CC/wave/station/bulls.tCCz/gfswave.stationID.bull

The Combined NCEP/FNMOC Wave Ensembles (NFCENS) Product consists of a combination of significant wave height (Hs) data from the NCEP wave ensemble system, and from the wave ensembles run by the US Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Ocenographic Center (FNMOC). The product combines outputs from a total of 41 wave ensemble members. A detailed description is provided in Alves et al. (2013)

Forecasts extend from 0h to 240h, and are provided for a global domains in a spherical grid with 0.1 x 0.1 degree resolution. Forecasts are run 4x daily at the 00, 06, 12 and 18Z run cycles.

Products from the NCEP wave ensemble alone, which also include in addition to wave heights, peak period and wind speed/direction data are at the GEOWAFS page.

Forecast products provided below consist of global maps of statistical parameters derived from the 41 combined NCEP/FNMOC wave ensemble members, as follows:

Product Description
Mean & Spread Means and Spreads in the ensemble
Spaghetti Maps of all ensemble members
Probability Ensemble probabilities

The viewer controls allow you to select from the last 5 days at the run times of 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z. Spaghetti and Probability maps include a control to select a threshold value for the selected parameter.