MMAB Sea Ice Drift Guidance Verification Statistics

Statistical evaluation tables and figures are given below.  The verification data are the observed drifts of buoys from the International Arctic Buoy Program.  For each forecast point , the scorer looks to see if any buoy is within a specified radius --  55 km (0.5 degree latitude equivalent)  is now the standard -- and if so, the observed drift is compared to the forecast.

Statistics are given for all forecasts and points which could be verified from:

• 14 April 1993 through May 1998 (110 km radius, 6 day lead limit, geostrophic winds).
• May 1998 through May 2007 (55 km radius, 16 day lead, geostrophic winds)
• May 2007 through December 2010 (55 km radius, 16 day lead, 10 meter winds)
• 11 Sep 2014 to present (55 km radius, 16 day lead, ensemble)

• 1993
• 1994
• 1995
• 1996
• 1997
• 1998
• 1999
• 2000
• 2001
• 2002
• 2003
• 2004
• 2005
• 2006
• 2007
• 2008
• 2009
• 2010
• 2011
• 2012
• 2013
• 2014
• 2015
• 2016
• 2017