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Ice drift verification for 2007

Statistics for all months of 2007 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
Count fday r VCC B1 rms d,
1258 1 0.274 0.506 0.537 74.1 4.7
1246 2 0.332 0.620 0.662 71.3 9.0
1242 3 0.394 0.700 0.767 70.6 12.8
1246 4 0.397 0.718 0.780 70.7 16.2
1234 5 0.396 0.699 0.781 71.4 18.9
1223 6 0.397 0.662 0.778 73.8 21.1
1220 7 0.418 0.651 0.805 75.5 23.1
1208 8 0.409 0.617 0.786 77.2 25.1
1205 9 0.408 0.593 0.795 77.1 27.4
1201 10 0.414 0.607 0.797 77.5 29.7
1196 11 0.407 0.594 0.789 78.2 31.9
1193 12 0.386 0.547 0.729 78.9 33.5
1194 13 0.378 0.524 0.730 79.5 35.4
1190 14 0.362 0.480 0.698 80.2 36.6
1184 15 0.336 0.513 0.632 80.7 38.7
1181 16 0.335 0.513 0.614 80.8 40.7

Forecasts at all lead times, scored by month for year 2007

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
186 1 0.965 1.101 2.043 28.3 67.7
667 2 0.414 0.377 0.370 81.5 8.9
2107 3 0.346 0.250 0.574 73.4 14.7
2646 4 0.690 0.482 0.846 73.7 14.7
223 5 0.588 0.401 0.743 99.5 9.7
2861 6 0.591 0.346 0.435 68.3 20.1
1059 7 0.659 1.279 0.850 68.9 18.0
1878 8 0.680 0.560 1.570 77.4 34.8
3340 9 0.357 0.444 0.809 75.0 37.0
1788 10 0.709 0.679 1.396 82.2 30.9
1977 11 0.641 0.698 1.061 88.7 25.5
693 12 0.722 0.510 2.407 76.3 36.3

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Lead Observations Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
48 1 9 0.832 1.020 1.109 86.8 1.1
48 2 7 0.811 0.904 1.128 71.3 1.8
48 3 7 0.825 0.978 0.947 72.7 2.3
48 4 6 0.739 1.156 1.182 68.2 3.4
48 5 5 0.789 1.592 1.110 65.8 4.5
48 6 4 0.830 1.026 1.067 70.8 5.1
50 5 5 -0.529 0.405 -1.527 21.7 213.8
50 6 5 0.065 0.311 0.097 38.8 199.7
50 7 5 0.700 0.883 2.001 84.7 231.4
50 8 5 0.344 1.178 1.321 48.7 204.9
50 9 5 0.065 1.190 0.182 63.8 169.2
50 10 5 -0.174 1.346 -0.411 70.9 157.8
50 11 5 -0.445 1.496 -0.907 73.4 180.1
50 12 5 -0.715 1.485 -2.765 78.4 212.9
50 13 5 -0.728 1.613 -4.279 83.4 213.9
50 14 5 -0.737 1.237 -4.075 82.6 210.6
50 15 5 -0.382 1.018 -1.778 81.6 217.2
50 16 5 -0.321 1.053 -1.793 74.6 283.0
59 1 4 0.075 1.327 0.191 10.1 22.3
59 2 4 0.401 1.633 1.344 13.7 44.5
59 3 4 0.709 1.923 4.197 22.5 63.6
59 4 4 0.895 1.144 2.125 23.2 85.8
59 5 4 -0.081 1.000 -0.539 24.1 102.6
59 6 4 -0.469 1.094 -8.276 38.0 99.2
59 7 4 0.672 1.000 4.568 56.0 78.1
59 8 4 0.692 1.072 4.240 74.7 83.1
59 9 4 0.367 1.036 1.912 84.0 107.5
59 10 4 -0.279 1.445 -0.814 87.3 122.4
59 11 4 -0.350 1.271 -0.752 83.6 106.8
59 12 4 0.177 1.001 0.781 95.5 88.5
59 13 4 0.828 1.001 18.936 91.3 80.9
59 14 4 -0.928 1.110 -10.631 86.2 77.0
59 15 4 -0.986 1.024 -9.705 88.3 113.4
59 16 4 -0.971 1.161 -3.769 97.6 135.4
66 1 63 0.242 0.529 0.341 73.6 3.9
66 2 64 0.273 0.633 0.373 67.3 7.8
66 3 64 0.319 0.775 0.418 67.9 11.5
66 4 63 0.352 0.900 0.442 50.5 14.5
66 5 64 0.387 0.936 0.491 51.0 16.5
66 6 63 0.363 0.856 0.454 41.7 20.0
66 7 63 0.353 0.810 0.452 34.5 23.4
66 8 64 0.342 0.714 0.464 28.7 27.1
66 9 64 0.360 0.646 0.486 26.5 28.8
66 10 64 0.381 0.543 0.518 26.0 31.2
66 11 64 0.370 0.357 0.506 28.9 33.6
66 12 64 0.347 0.269 0.483 30.9 35.3
66 13 64 0.328 0.223 0.467 31.7 36.3
66 14 64 0.291 0.173 0.419 34.7 38.4
66 15 64 0.261 0.133 0.384 36.7 40.6
66 16 64 0.222 0.115 0.323 37.7 43.1
67 1 254 0.314 0.736 0.417 73.2 3.4
67 2 251 0.396 0.985 0.436 67.2 6.0
67 3 253 0.419 1.085 0.427 61.0 7.8
67 4 257 0.339 0.880 0.441 61.7 9.8
67 5 255 0.450 1.117 0.374 61.4 10.8
67 6 255 0.367 0.961 0.364 64.9 12.4
67 7 258 0.377 0.946 0.362 68.3 12.8
67 8 256 0.386 0.902 0.359 70.4 12.7
67 9 256 0.334 0.837 0.315 72.9 13.3
67 10 254 0.343 0.845 0.324 76.1 14.3
67 11 253 0.344 0.823 0.325 78.2 14.4
67 12 255 0.372 0.731 0.363 82.1 14.6
67 13 256 0.396 0.653 0.398 87.0 14.9
67 14 257 0.392 0.567 0.411 88.8 16.5
67 15 252 0.398 0.533 0.454 89.9 18.7
67 16 251 0.398 0.513 0.463 88.2 17.9
68 1 24 0.127 0.754 0.235 78.4 3.4
68 2 23 0.114 0.759 0.160 87.3 4.9
68 3 21 0.036 0.681 0.033 87.1 5.6
68 4 19 -0.023 0.467 -0.014 82.2 6.3
68 5 17 0.019 0.234 0.009 84.4 7.0
68 6 15 0.235 0.574 0.075 88.3 5.8
68 7 15 0.539 0.872 0.331 101.8 5.3
68 8 16 0.807 0.835 0.626 108.7 5.7
68 9 16 0.850 1.003 0.662 110.8 6.6
68 10 16 0.770 1.199 0.604 111.9 6.1
68 11 16 0.599 1.024 0.451 105.5 6.3
68 12 16 0.483 0.492 0.368 101.7 7.2
68 13 16 0.403 0.384 0.298 100.0 8.4
68 14 16 0.283 0.404 0.196 98.5 13.3
68 15 16 0.264 0.796 0.166 97.8 16.2
68 16 16 0.233 0.810 0.135 99.6 17.2
69 1 25 0.523 0.722 0.565 63.9 3.4
69 2 19 0.493 0.895 0.544 61.4 6.3
69 3 16 0.200 1.295 0.220 44.9 7.8
69 4 18 -0.342 0.863 -0.366 70.3 11.8
69 5 10 -0.386 0.884 -0.306 47.3 7.2
69 6 8 -0.332 1.025 -0.242 69.7 6.0
69 7 6 -0.573 0.913 -0.429 98.9 4.6
69 8 5 -0.615 1.010 -0.511 102.6 5.7
69 15 4 -0.159 1.102 -0.024 45.7 47.8
69 16 4 -0.014 1.588 -0.002 46.3 50.8
70 1 15 0.487 0.893 1.490 30.3 6.9
70 2 14 0.311 0.933 0.971 24.7 14.5
70 3 15 0.369 0.948 1.451 27.8 19.8
70 4 14 0.288 0.967 1.183 24.0 25.8
70 5 13 0.252 1.026 0.911 18.3 32.7
70 6 12 0.209 1.289 0.638 16.7 38.9
70 7 11 0.516 0.981 1.763 17.5 45.6
70 8 10 0.774 1.086 2.358 19.8 56.4
70 9 9 0.776 1.194 1.714 25.3 65.5
70 10 8 0.596 0.644 0.967 29.3 71.7
70 11 8 0.464 0.783 0.637 30.7 73.2
70 12 8 0.372 0.607 0.388 29.5 80.8
70 13 8 0.381 0.261 0.322 29.8 88.2
70 14 8 0.559 0.650 0.357 31.7 93.8
70 15 8 0.738 0.790 0.422 35.3 95.2
70 16 7 0.596 0.529 0.411 28.5 106.3
73 1 8 -0.704 0.679 -1.951 14.4 24.2
73 2 8 -0.082 0.990 -0.194 18.2 41.2
73 3 9 0.087 0.792 0.154 15.8 60.0
73 4 10 0.362 0.615 0.803 18.2 82.5
73 5 11 0.306 0.650 0.613 21.1 105.3
73 6 11 0.445 0.395 0.882 26.3 115.3
73 7 11 0.550 0.743 1.190 25.3 116.2
73 8 11 0.711 0.685 1.672 27.0 120.6
73 9 11 0.738 0.917 1.848 23.4 143.7
73 10 11 0.745 0.632 1.682 23.5 170.9
73 11 10 0.830 0.785 1.804 20.0 199.1
73 12 7 0.909 1.078 2.465 16.0 212.8
73 13 5 0.932 1.243 2.640 11.8 225.8
82 1 200 0.240 0.837 0.302 45.0 3.8
82 2 199 0.237 1.056 0.286 47.2 7.9
82 3 198 0.275 1.064 0.311 48.6 10.5
82 4 196 0.320 1.006 0.324 54.4 12.5
82 5 194 0.351 0.890 0.343 60.1 13.9
82 6 193 0.398 0.811 0.388 66.4 14.8
82 7 192 0.450 0.752 0.430 73.8 17.1
82 8 188 0.495 0.707 0.450 76.5 18.3
82 9 190 0.515 0.651 0.475 81.9 20.1
82 10 190 0.525 0.619 0.492 82.3 20.6
82 11 189 0.501 0.598 0.459 83.8 22.1
82 12 186 0.390 0.459 0.347 83.9 24.1
82 13 184 0.282 0.309 0.245 81.9 24.5
82 14 182 0.219 0.214 0.184 80.8 26.1
82 15 180 0.202 0.135 0.163 78.9 26.7
82 16 179 0.204 0.111 0.155 77.3 28.3
83 1 91 0.316 0.652 0.642 84.5 5.1
83 2 90 0.335 0.760 0.649 82.8 9.3
83 3 90 0.345 0.852 0.650 82.4 14.4
83 4 92 0.373 0.926 0.639 83.1 18.5
83 5 91 0.425 0.978 0.644 85.2 21.8
83 6 92 0.358 0.976 0.481 86.1 24.2
83 7 94 0.367 1.008 0.432 78.6 24.6
83 8 94 0.387 0.943 0.410 78.6 27.3
83 9 94 0.409 0.859 0.404 77.2 31.5
83 10 94 0.419 0.785 0.407 77.1 34.5
83 11 95 0.443 0.688 0.442 77.1 35.2
83 12 95 0.464 0.599 0.486 76.0 37.7
83 13 95 0.428 0.536 0.477 74.5 40.8
83 14 95 0.411 0.478 0.498 75.2 40.6
83 15 95 0.391 0.471 0.485 75.4 40.6
83 16 95 0.345 0.471 0.426 74.1 41.4
84 1 97 0.071 0.491 0.111 85.6 4.7
84 2 99 0.032 0.630 0.043 73.9 8.3
84 3 100 -0.044 0.646 -0.055 71.4 11.8
84 4 100 -0.092 0.654 -0.105 75.0 14.8
84 5 102 -0.092 0.595 -0.103 81.0 15.7
84 6 103 -0.108 0.525 -0.118 80.7 16.5
84 7 103 -0.089 0.476 -0.097 84.3 16.3
84 8 102 -0.100 0.363 -0.112 87.6 16.8
84 9 101 -0.093 0.262 -0.104 88.3 16.5
84 10 101 -0.098 0.205 -0.107 90.8 16.8
84 11 101 -0.063 0.201 -0.068 91.9 16.6
84 12 100 -0.022 0.219 -0.023 93.1 19.9
84 13 100 0.025 0.235 0.027 94.7 21.1
84 14 100 0.050 0.238 0.055 96.3 21.2
84 15 101 0.063 0.247 0.070 97.6 21.6
84 16 100 0.020 0.247 0.022 100.5 22.8
85 1 65 0.470 0.572 0.600 68.2 2.9
85 2 65 0.639 0.804 0.991 66.6 4.8
85 3 67 0.665 0.821 1.041 63.0 7.0
85 4 68 0.692 0.797 1.106 61.1 8.9
85 5 66 0.587 0.706 0.868 53.1 11.1
85 6 66 0.566 0.645 0.815 58.8 12.1
85 7 64 0.527 0.555 0.759 63.2 13.0
85 8 64 0.490 0.467 0.680 64.1 14.5
85 9 65 0.450 0.423 0.607 62.6 15.6
85 10 65 0.391 0.417 0.514 64.8 16.6
85 11 65 0.405 0.435 0.517 67.1 16.9
85 12 66 0.335 0.418 0.443 67.8 18.1
85 13 67 0.215 0.369 0.289 72.8 20.2
85 14 66 0.179 0.320 0.232 76.0 21.7
85 15 66 0.196 0.278 0.245 74.9 23.1
85 16 67 0.172 0.252 0.209 74.3 24.9
86 1 9 0.679 0.969 1.307 43.3 3.4
86 2 10 0.781 1.224 1.010 40.4 5.8
86 3 10 0.781 1.084 0.863 36.7 9.5
86 4 10 0.786 0.859 0.745 41.1 12.7
86 5 9 0.871 0.865 0.745 30.8 15.4
86 6 8 0.814 0.761 0.661 31.9 19.0
86 7 7 0.249 1.093 0.084 31.4 23.8
86 8 6 0.112 0.952 0.033 22.8 27.8
86 9 6 -0.714 1.237 -0.452 27.5 29.5
86 10 6 -0.692 0.811 -0.486 26.9 31.4
86 11 6 -0.551 0.762 -0.386 20.5 34.1
86 12 6 -0.457 0.849 -0.317 24.9 34.7
86 13 6 -0.466 0.897 -0.260 32.9 35.8
86 14 6 -0.547 0.993 -0.256 29.7 39.8
86 15 5 -0.348 1.128 -0.104 33.1 43.1
86 16 4 -0.524 1.002 -0.157 38.6 49.2
87 1 9 0.369 0.937 0.824 64.0 4.9
87 2 9 0.100 0.791 0.243 54.8 10.2
87 3 9 0.367 0.891 0.852 59.1 12.3
87 4 9 0.388 0.624 0.775 48.9 16.7
87 5 9 0.494 0.614 1.043 39.3 22.7
87 6 9 0.540 0.581 1.014 37.7 28.1
87 7 9 0.561 0.664 1.224 38.3 32.8
87 8 9 0.435 0.782 0.768 40.7 36.2
87 9 9 -0.393 0.827 -0.494 41.6 43.0
87 10 9 -0.833 0.874 -1.377 40.2 57.1
87 11 9 -0.701 1.060 -1.425 41.0 68.7
87 12 9 -0.464 0.984 -0.982 43.4 78.0
87 13 9 -0.430 0.842 -0.722 44.5 90.3
87 14 9 -0.459 1.125 -0.650 46.7 102.0
87 15 9 -0.396 1.107 -0.453 49.9 114.0
87 16 9 -0.002 1.004 -0.001 52.0 128.8
89 1 11 0.507 0.839 0.922 10.6 36.7
89 2 11 0.579 1.173 1.868 11.9 67.5
89 3 12 0.921 1.619 1.890 28.0 83.9
89 4 12 0.723 1.251 1.241 21.9 94.9
89 5 11 0.655 1.091 0.758 25.9 92.5
89 6 11 0.509 1.039 0.435 14.2 102.6
89 7 11 0.278 1.332 0.206 8.1 108.6
89 8 11 -0.090 1.855 -0.051 7.6 122.3
89 9 11 -0.045 1.383 -0.017 6.4 138.0
89 10 12 -0.116 0.933 -0.033 6.0 156.8
89 11 12 -0.507 0.994 -0.181 6.2 179.6
89 12 12 -0.528 1.083 -0.191 5.8 198.1
89 13 12 -0.244 1.017 -0.122 5.1 208.1
89 14 12 0.119 1.239 0.077 4.2 221.3
89 15 10 0.398 1.563 0.302 3.9 246.4
89 16 10 0.607 1.669 0.491 4.0 280.1
99 1 12 0.272 0.932 0.776 95.5 3.6
99 2 12 0.220 1.088 0.568 94.6 7.6
99 3 12 0.291 1.091 0.868 90.0 12.7
99 4 12 0.391 0.945 1.365 83.6 19.4
99 5 12 0.346 1.073 1.058 74.8 24.3
99 6 12 0.066 1.177 0.196 71.5 31.4
99 7 12 -0.210 1.174 -0.569 70.8 35.7
99 8 12 -0.255 1.028 -0.753 73.7 39.3
99 9 12 -0.245 1.016 -0.781 73.6 49.4
99 10 12 -0.079 1.036 -0.244 73.9 57.4
99 11 12 -0.078 1.057 -0.236 78.6 64.0
99 12 12 -0.077 0.944 -0.219 83.4 73.4
99 13 12 -0.037 0.819 -0.100 87.2 82.2
99 14 12 -0.108 0.806 -0.291 88.1 86.9
99 15 12 -0.124 0.904 -0.343 90.6 94.1
99 16 12 -0.131 1.078 -0.375 94.9 95.8
100 1 41 0.389 0.876 0.749 64.5 4.3
100 2 38 0.479 0.957 0.930 61.6 8.5
100 3 39 0.491 0.876 1.064 47.0 12.1
100 4 39 0.523 0.828 1.259 49.5 15.1
100 5 39 0.581 0.789 1.347 46.2 17.3
100 6 38 0.745 0.899 1.859 43.1 19.8
100 7 36 0.805 0.892 1.945 53.7 22.2
100 8 35 0.779 0.812 1.709 63.6 25.2
100 9 36 0.794 0.805 1.895 59.4 27.6
100 10 36 0.776 0.760 1.895 63.0 29.9
100 11 35 0.753 0.785 1.918 58.4 33.8
100 12 35 0.737 0.848 1.939 59.6 36.4
100 13 35 0.738 0.862 1.959 50.4 38.1
100 14 36 0.715 0.861 2.016 46.5 40.9
100 15 37 0.576 0.694 1.479 47.7 37.6
100 16 36 0.627 0.699 1.554 48.3 38.1
101 1 7 -0.528 0.852 -0.702 63.4 4.5
101 2 7 -0.699 1.129 -0.771 62.5 9.5
101 3 7 -0.773 1.094 -0.938 62.2 15.1
101 4 7 -0.812 0.991 -1.125 66.2 21.9
101 5 7 -0.826 1.041 -1.466 60.9 28.5
101 6 7 -0.817 1.261 -1.817 67.3 29.4
101 7 7 -0.856 1.441 -2.181 77.0 28.8
101 8 7 -0.633 1.708 -1.755 78.7 31.5
101 9 7 -0.247 1.093 -0.459 84.0 32.5
101 10 7 0.004 1.379 0.004 88.3 34.3
101 11 7 0.091 1.427 0.033 88.9 33.2
101 12 7 -0.271 1.121 -0.047 87.4 35.2
101 13 7 -0.307 0.920 -0.037 82.2 31.7
101 14 7 -0.056 0.960 -0.006 74.6 33.5
101 15 7 0.057 0.931 0.009 69.0 35.7
101 16 7 0.038 0.968 0.008 66.5 37.0
102 1 83 0.383 0.328 0.466 101.7 4.0
102 2 87 0.362 0.483 0.423 99.0 6.4
102 3 85 0.338 0.573 0.394 103.0 9.3
102 4 87 0.330 0.697 0.426 108.0 11.6
102 5 87 0.363 0.734 0.490 110.1 13.7
102 6 85 0.407 0.778 0.561 120.2 14.3
102 7 87 0.392 0.775 0.522 125.4 17.2
102 8 86 0.374 0.742 0.446 130.8 19.0
102 9 84 0.324 0.712 0.388 127.0 19.4
102 10 84 0.328 0.624 0.392 124.2 19.0
102 11 84 0.294 0.493 0.341 123.7 19.9
102 12 84 0.202 0.389 0.229 119.8 22.1
102 13 84 0.161 0.262 0.187 119.0 23.5
102 14 84 0.153 0.231 0.182 121.1 25.3
102 15 84 0.105 0.238 0.114 125.3 28.8
102 16 84 0.107 0.279 0.111 131.3 32.9
103 1 104 0.331 -nan 0.692 80.0 4.9
103 2 104 0.532 -nan 1.054 81.9 8.6
103 3 103 0.642 -nan 1.237 79.7 11.8
103 4 102 0.724 -nan 1.428 78.0 14.5
103 5 101 0.755 -nan 1.496 75.8 18.2
103 6 100 0.763 -nan 1.517 71.8 21.8
103 7 99 0.753 -nan 1.471 69.6 23.8
103 8 98 0.759 -nan 1.498 66.8 25.7
103 9 98 0.726 -nan 1.492 63.0 28.1
103 10 99 0.653 -nan 1.404 58.2 33.8
103 11 100 0.558 -nan 1.228 53.8 39.7
103 12 101 0.462 -nan 1.008 51.7 44.6
103 13 102 0.379 -nan 0.825 49.5 50.0
103 14 103 0.325 -nan 0.690 48.1 54.5
103 15 104 0.269 -nan 0.555 46.9 60.1
103 16 105 0.241 -nan 0.486 45.8 65.0
105 1 6 0.227 1.153 2.049 75.8 9.1
105 2 5 0.039 1.758 0.410 74.7 11.2
105 3 4 0.683 1.001 10.971 97.5 18.8
105 7 4 -0.157 1.218 -0.709 60.4 16.3
120 1 73 -0.321 0.373 -1.209 97.4 2.7
120 2 73 0.327 0.406 1.060 97.1 10.0
120 3 73 0.592 0.641 1.420 105.5 16.3
120 4 74 0.668 0.757 1.402 96.1 19.3
120 5 74 0.734 0.833 1.384 96.7 21.8
120 6 73 0.774 0.940 1.360 97.9 25.0
120 7 72 0.836 0.944 1.383 81.6 27.0
120 8 72 0.760 0.788 1.276 74.8 31.4
120 9 73 0.551 0.587 0.896 68.5 36.3
120 10 74 0.540 0.674 0.808 63.3 41.1
120 11 74 0.450 0.679 0.652 63.7 44.4
120 12 74 0.087 0.213 0.130 68.2 48.7
120 13 74 -0.106 0.107 -0.147 70.0 52.0
120 14 74 -0.174 0.113 -0.241 69.8 51.3
120 15 74 -0.211 0.485 -0.256 68.4 54.9
120 16 74 -0.211 0.553 -0.203 68.0 60.0
137 1 6 0.623 0.725 0.431 77.4 1.6
137 2 5 0.621 0.963 0.407 58.6 3.8
137 3 4 0.759 1.291 0.476 51.6 3.6
137 5 7 0.726 0.996 0.512 26.0 8.6
137 6 6 0.747 1.048 0.643 52.2 11.3
137 7 7 0.459 1.247 0.330 60.6 12.8
137 8 7 0.008 1.324 0.009 59.4 13.8
137 9 5 -0.332 1.250 -0.059 47.3 17.8
137 10 4 0.666 1.895 1.036 57.4 20.9
137 12 4 -0.626 1.682 -0.797 53.9 13.9
137 13 6 -0.706 1.054 -1.079 62.2 18.2
137 14 6 -0.631 0.926 -0.968 59.2 21.2
137 15 5 -0.635 1.828 -0.846 56.3 22.3
137 16 4 -0.769 1.781 -1.032 45.0 45.4


Return to main drift statistics page
Last Modified 10 March 2014
Robert Grumbine Ice drift verification for 2007

Statistics for all months of 2007 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
Count fday r VCC B1 rms d,
1258 1 0.274 0.506 0.537 74.1 4.7
1246 2 0.332 0.620 0.662 71.3 9.0
1242 3 0.394 0.700 0.767 70.6 12.8
1246 4 0.397 0.718 0.780 70.7 16.2
1234 5 0.396 0.699 0.781 71.4 18.9
1223 6 0.397 0.662 0.778 73.8 21.1
1220 7 0.418 0.651 0.805 75.5 23.1
1208 8 0.409 0.617 0.786 77.2 25.1
1205 9 0.408 0.593 0.795 77.1 27.4
1201 10 0.414 0.607 0.797 77.5 29.7
1196 11 0.407 0.594 0.789 78.2 31.9
1193 12 0.386 0.547 0.729 78.9 33.5
1194 13 0.378 0.524 0.730 79.5 35.4
1190 14 0.362 0.480 0.698 80.2 36.6
1184 15 0.336 0.513 0.632 80.7 38.7
1181 16 0.335 0.513 0.614 80.8 40.7

Forecasts at all lead times, scored by month for year 2007

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
186 1 0.965 1.101 2.043 28.3 67.7
667 2 0.414 0.377 0.370 81.5 8.9
2107 3 0.346 0.250 0.574 73.4 14.7
2646 4 0.690 0.482 0.846 73.7 14.7
223 5 0.588 0.401 0.743 99.5 9.7
2861 6 0.591 0.346 0.435 68.3 20.1
1059 7 0.659 1.279 0.850 68.9 18.0
1878 8 0.680 0.560 1.570 77.4 34.8
3340 9 0.357 0.444 0.809 75.0 37.0
1788 10 0.709 0.679 1.396 82.2 30.9
1977 11 0.641 0.698 1.061 88.7 25.5
693 12 0.722 0.510 2.407 76.3 36.3

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Lead Observations Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
48 1 9 0.832 1.020 1.109 86.8 1.1
48 2 7 0.811 0.904 1.128 71.3 1.8
48 3 7 0.825 0.978 0.947 72.7 2.3
48 4 6 0.739 1.156 1.182 68.2 3.4
48 5 5 0.789 1.592 1.110 65.8 4.5
48 6 4 0.830 1.026 1.067 70.8 5.1
50 5 5 -0.529 0.405 -1.527 21.7 213.8
50 6 5 0.065 0.311 0.097 38.8 199.7
50 7 5 0.700 0.883 2.001 84.7 231.4
50 8 5 0.344 1.178 1.321 48.7 204.9
50 9 5 0.065 1.190 0.182 63.8 169.2
50 10 5 -0.174 1.346 -0.411 70.9 157.8
50 11 5 -0.445 1.496 -0.907 73.4 180.1
50 12 5 -0.715 1.485 -2.765 78.4 212.9
50 13 5 -0.728 1.613 -4.279 83.4 213.9
50 14 5 -0.737 1.237 -4.075 82.6 210.6
50 15 5 -0.382 1.018 -1.778 81.6 217.2
50 16 5 -0.321 1.053 -1.793 74.6 283.0
59 1 4 0.075 1.327 0.191 10.1 22.3
59 2 4 0.401 1.633 1.344 13.7 44.5
59 3 4 0.709 1.923 4.197 22.5 63.6
59 4 4 0.895 1.144 2.125 23.2 85.8
59 5 4 -0.081 1.000 -0.539 24.1 102.6
59 6 4 -0.469 1.094 -8.276 38.0 99.2
59 7 4 0.672 1.000 4.568 56.0 78.1
59 8 4 0.692 1.072 4.240 74.7 83.1
59 9 4 0.367 1.036 1.912 84.0 107.5
59 10 4 -0.279 1.445 -0.814 87.3 122.4
59 11 4 -0.350 1.271 -0.752 83.6 106.8
59 12 4 0.177 1.001 0.781 95.5 88.5
59 13 4 0.828 1.001 18.936 91.3 80.9
59 14 4 -0.928 1.110 -10.631 86.2 77.0
59 15 4 -0.986 1.024 -9.705 88.3 113.4
59 16 4 -0.971 1.161 -3.769 97.6 135.4
66 1 63 0.242 0.529 0.341 73.6 3.9
66 2 64 0.273 0.633 0.373 67.3 7.8
66 3 64 0.319 0.775 0.418 67.9 11.5
66 4 63 0.352 0.900 0.442 50.5 14.5
66 5 64 0.387 0.936 0.491 51.0 16.5
66 6 63 0.363 0.856 0.454 41.7 20.0
66 7 63 0.353 0.810 0.452 34.5 23.4
66 8 64 0.342 0.714 0.464 28.7 27.1
66 9 64 0.360 0.646 0.486 26.5 28.8
66 10 64 0.381 0.543 0.518 26.0 31.2
66 11 64 0.370 0.357 0.506 28.9 33.6
66 12 64 0.347 0.269 0.483 30.9 35.3
66 13 64 0.328 0.223 0.467 31.7 36.3
66 14 64 0.291 0.173 0.419 34.7 38.4
66 15 64 0.261 0.133 0.384 36.7 40.6
66 16 64 0.222 0.115 0.323 37.7 43.1
67 1 254 0.314 0.736 0.417 73.2 3.4
67 2 251 0.396 0.985 0.436 67.2 6.0
67 3 253 0.419 1.085 0.427 61.0 7.8
67 4 257 0.339 0.880 0.441 61.7 9.8
67 5 255 0.450 1.117 0.374 61.4 10.8
67 6 255 0.367 0.961 0.364 64.9 12.4
67 7 258 0.377 0.946 0.362 68.3 12.8
67 8 256 0.386 0.902 0.359 70.4 12.7
67 9 256 0.334 0.837 0.315 72.9 13.3
67 10 254 0.343 0.845 0.324 76.1 14.3
67 11 253 0.344 0.823 0.325 78.2 14.4
67 12 255 0.372 0.731 0.363 82.1 14.6
67 13 256 0.396 0.653 0.398 87.0 14.9
67 14 257 0.392 0.567 0.411 88.8 16.5
67 15 252 0.398 0.533 0.454 89.9 18.7
67 16 251 0.398 0.513 0.463 88.2 17.9
68 1 24 0.127 0.754 0.235 78.4 3.4
68 2 23 0.114 0.759 0.160 87.3 4.9
68 3 21 0.036 0.681 0.033 87.1 5.6
68 4 19 -0.023 0.467 -0.014 82.2 6.3
68 5 17 0.019 0.234 0.009 84.4 7.0
68 6 15 0.235 0.574 0.075 88.3 5.8
68 7 15 0.539 0.872 0.331 101.8 5.3
68 8 16 0.807 0.835 0.626 108.7 5.7
68 9 16 0.850 1.003 0.662 110.8 6.6
68 10 16 0.770 1.199 0.604 111.9 6.1
68 11 16 0.599 1.024 0.451 105.5 6.3
68 12 16 0.483 0.492 0.368 101.7 7.2
68 13 16 0.403 0.384 0.298 100.0 8.4
68 14 16 0.283 0.404 0.196 98.5 13.3
68 15 16 0.264 0.796 0.166 97.8 16.2
68 16 16 0.233 0.810 0.135 99.6 17.2
69 1 25 0.523 0.722 0.565 63.9 3.4
69 2 19 0.493 0.895 0.544 61.4 6.3
69 3 16 0.200 1.295 0.220 44.9 7.8
69 4 18 -0.342 0.863 -0.366 70.3 11.8
69 5 10 -0.386 0.884 -0.306 47.3 7.2
69 6 8 -0.332 1.025 -0.242 69.7 6.0
69 7 6 -0.573 0.913 -0.429 98.9 4.6
69 8 5 -0.615 1.010 -0.511 102.6 5.7
69 15 4 -0.159 1.102 -0.024 45.7 47.8
69 16 4 -0.014 1.588 -0.002 46.3 50.8
70 1 15 0.487 0.893 1.490 30.3 6.9
70 2 14 0.311 0.933 0.971 24.7 14.5
70 3 15 0.369 0.948 1.451 27.8 19.8
70 4 14 0.288 0.967 1.183 24.0 25.8
70 5 13 0.252 1.026 0.911 18.3 32.7
70 6 12 0.209 1.289 0.638 16.7 38.9
70 7 11 0.516 0.981 1.763 17.5 45.6
70 8 10 0.774 1.086 2.358 19.8 56.4
70 9 9 0.776 1.194 1.714 25.3 65.5
70 10 8 0.596 0.644 0.967 29.3 71.7
70 11 8 0.464 0.783 0.637 30.7 73.2
70 12 8 0.372 0.607 0.388 29.5 80.8
70 13 8 0.381 0.261 0.322 29.8 88.2
70 14 8 0.559 0.650 0.357 31.7 93.8
70 15 8 0.738 0.790 0.422 35.3 95.2
70 16 7 0.596 0.529 0.411 28.5 106.3
73 1 8 -0.704 0.679 -1.951 14.4 24.2
73 2 8 -0.082 0.990 -0.194 18.2 41.2
73 3 9 0.087 0.792 0.154 15.8 60.0
73 4 10 0.362 0.615 0.803 18.2 82.5
73 5 11 0.306 0.650 0.613 21.1 105.3
73 6 11 0.445 0.395 0.882 26.3 115.3
73 7 11 0.550 0.743 1.190 25.3 116.2
73 8 11 0.711 0.685 1.672 27.0 120.6
73 9 11 0.738 0.917 1.848 23.4 143.7
73 10 11 0.745 0.632 1.682 23.5 170.9
73 11 10 0.830 0.785 1.804 20.0 199.1
73 12 7 0.909 1.078 2.465 16.0 212.8
73 13 5 0.932 1.243 2.640 11.8 225.8
82 1 200 0.240 0.837 0.302 45.0 3.8
82 2 199 0.237 1.056 0.286 47.2 7.9
82 3 198 0.275 1.064 0.311 48.6 10.5
82 4 196 0.320 1.006 0.324 54.4 12.5
82 5 194 0.351 0.890 0.343 60.1 13.9
82 6 193 0.398 0.811 0.388 66.4 14.8
82 7 192 0.450 0.752 0.430 73.8 17.1
82 8 188 0.495 0.707 0.450 76.5 18.3
82 9 190 0.515 0.651 0.475 81.9 20.1
82 10 190 0.525 0.619 0.492 82.3 20.6
82 11 189 0.501 0.598 0.459 83.8 22.1
82 12 186 0.390 0.459 0.347 83.9 24.1
82 13 184 0.282 0.309 0.245 81.9 24.5
82 14 182 0.219 0.214 0.184 80.8 26.1
82 15 180 0.202 0.135 0.163 78.9 26.7
82 16 179 0.204 0.111 0.155 77.3 28.3
83 1 91 0.316 0.652 0.642 84.5 5.1
83 2 90 0.335 0.760 0.649 82.8 9.3
83 3 90 0.345 0.852 0.650 82.4 14.4
83 4 92 0.373 0.926 0.639 83.1 18.5
83 5 91 0.425 0.978 0.644 85.2 21.8
83 6 92 0.358 0.976 0.481 86.1 24.2
83 7 94 0.367 1.008 0.432 78.6 24.6
83 8 94 0.387 0.943 0.410 78.6 27.3
83 9 94 0.409 0.859 0.404 77.2 31.5
83 10 94 0.419 0.785 0.407 77.1 34.5
83 11 95 0.443 0.688 0.442 77.1 35.2
83 12 95 0.464 0.599 0.486 76.0 37.7
83 13 95 0.428 0.536 0.477 74.5 40.8
83 14 95 0.411 0.478 0.498 75.2 40.6
83 15 95 0.391 0.471 0.485 75.4 40.6
83 16 95 0.345 0.471 0.426 74.1 41.4
84 1 97 0.071 0.491 0.111 85.6 4.7
84 2 99 0.032 0.630 0.043 73.9 8.3
84 3 100 -0.044 0.646 -0.055 71.4 11.8
84 4 100 -0.092 0.654 -0.105 75.0 14.8
84 5 102 -0.092 0.595 -0.103 81.0 15.7
84 6 103 -0.108 0.525 -0.118 80.7 16.5
84 7 103 -0.089 0.476 -0.097 84.3 16.3
84 8 102 -0.100 0.363 -0.112 87.6 16.8
84 9 101 -0.093 0.262 -0.104 88.3 16.5
84 10 101 -0.098 0.205 -0.107 90.8 16.8
84 11 101 -0.063 0.201 -0.068 91.9 16.6
84 12 100 -0.022 0.219 -0.023 93.1 19.9
84 13 100 0.025 0.235 0.027 94.7 21.1
84 14 100 0.050 0.238 0.055 96.3 21.2
84 15 101 0.063 0.247 0.070 97.6 21.6
84 16 100 0.020 0.247 0.022 100.5 22.8
85 1 65 0.470 0.572 0.600 68.2 2.9
85 2 65 0.639 0.804 0.991 66.6 4.8
85 3 67 0.665 0.821 1.041 63.0 7.0
85 4 68 0.692 0.797 1.106 61.1 8.9
85 5 66 0.587 0.706 0.868 53.1 11.1
85 6 66 0.566 0.645 0.815 58.8 12.1
85 7 64 0.527 0.555 0.759 63.2 13.0
85 8 64 0.490 0.467 0.680 64.1 14.5
85 9 65 0.450 0.423 0.607 62.6 15.6
85 10 65 0.391 0.417 0.514 64.8 16.6
85 11 65 0.405 0.435 0.517 67.1 16.9
85 12 66 0.335 0.418 0.443 67.8 18.1
85 13 67 0.215 0.369 0.289 72.8 20.2
85 14 66 0.179 0.320 0.232 76.0 21.7
85 15 66 0.196 0.278 0.245 74.9 23.1
85 16 67 0.172 0.252 0.209 74.3 24.9
86 1 9 0.679 0.969 1.307 43.3 3.4
86 2 10 0.781 1.224 1.010 40.4 5.8
86 3 10 0.781 1.084 0.863 36.7 9.5
86 4 10 0.786 0.859 0.745 41.1 12.7
86 5 9 0.871 0.865 0.745 30.8 15.4
86 6 8 0.814 0.761 0.661 31.9 19.0
86 7 7 0.249 1.093 0.084 31.4 23.8
86 8 6 0.112 0.952 0.033 22.8 27.8
86 9 6 -0.714 1.237 -0.452 27.5 29.5
86 10 6 -0.692 0.811 -0.486 26.9 31.4
86 11 6 -0.551 0.762 -0.386 20.5 34.1
86 12 6 -0.457 0.849 -0.317 24.9 34.7
86 13 6 -0.466 0.897 -0.260 32.9 35.8
86 14 6 -0.547 0.993 -0.256 29.7 39.8
86 15 5 -0.348 1.128 -0.104 33.1 43.1
86 16 4 -0.524 1.002 -0.157 38.6 49.2
87 1 9 0.369 0.937 0.824 64.0 4.9
87 2 9 0.100 0.791 0.243 54.8 10.2
87 3 9 0.367 0.891 0.852 59.1 12.3
87 4 9 0.388 0.624 0.775 48.9 16.7
87 5 9 0.494 0.614 1.043 39.3 22.7
87 6 9 0.540 0.581 1.014 37.7 28.1
87 7 9 0.561 0.664 1.224 38.3 32.8
87 8 9 0.435 0.782 0.768 40.7 36.2
87 9 9 -0.393 0.827 -0.494 41.6 43.0
87 10 9 -0.833 0.874 -1.377 40.2 57.1
87 11 9 -0.701 1.060 -1.425 41.0 68.7
87 12 9 -0.464 0.984 -0.982 43.4 78.0
87 13 9 -0.430 0.842 -0.722 44.5 90.3
87 14 9 -0.459 1.125 -0.650 46.7 102.0
87 15 9 -0.396 1.107 -0.453 49.9 114.0
87 16 9 -0.002 1.004 -0.001 52.0 128.8
89 1 11 0.507 0.839 0.922 10.6 36.7
89 2 11 0.579 1.173 1.868 11.9 67.5
89 3 12 0.921 1.619 1.890 28.0 83.9
89 4 12 0.723 1.251 1.241 21.9 94.9
89 5 11 0.655 1.091 0.758 25.9 92.5
89 6 11 0.509 1.039 0.435 14.2 102.6
89 7 11 0.278 1.332 0.206 8.1 108.6
89 8 11 -0.090 1.855 -0.051 7.6 122.3
89 9 11 -0.045 1.383 -0.017 6.4 138.0
89 10 12 -0.116 0.933 -0.033 6.0 156.8
89 11 12 -0.507 0.994 -0.181 6.2 179.6
89 12 12 -0.528 1.083 -0.191 5.8 198.1
89 13 12 -0.244 1.017 -0.122 5.1 208.1
89 14 12 0.119 1.239 0.077 4.2 221.3
89 15 10 0.398 1.563 0.302 3.9 246.4
89 16 10 0.607 1.669 0.491 4.0 280.1
99 1 12 0.272 0.932 0.776 95.5 3.6
99 2 12 0.220 1.088 0.568 94.6 7.6
99 3 12 0.291 1.091 0.868 90.0 12.7
99 4 12 0.391 0.945 1.365 83.6 19.4
99 5 12 0.346 1.073 1.058 74.8 24.3
99 6 12 0.066 1.177 0.196 71.5 31.4
99 7 12 -0.210 1.174 -0.569 70.8 35.7
99 8 12 -0.255 1.028 -0.753 73.7 39.3
99 9 12 -0.245 1.016 -0.781 73.6 49.4
99 10 12 -0.079 1.036 -0.244 73.9 57.4
99 11 12 -0.078 1.057 -0.236 78.6 64.0
99 12 12 -0.077 0.944 -0.219 83.4 73.4
99 13 12 -0.037 0.819 -0.100 87.2 82.2
99 14 12 -0.108 0.806 -0.291 88.1 86.9
99 15 12 -0.124 0.904 -0.343 90.6 94.1
99 16 12 -0.131 1.078 -0.375 94.9 95.8
100 1 41 0.389 0.876 0.749 64.5 4.3
100 2 38 0.479 0.957 0.930 61.6 8.5
100 3 39 0.491 0.876 1.064 47.0 12.1
100 4 39 0.523 0.828 1.259 49.5 15.1
100 5 39 0.581 0.789 1.347 46.2 17.3
100 6 38 0.745 0.899 1.859 43.1 19.8
100 7 36 0.805 0.892 1.945 53.7 22.2
100 8 35 0.779 0.812 1.709 63.6 25.2
100 9 36 0.794 0.805 1.895 59.4 27.6
100 10 36 0.776 0.760 1.895 63.0 29.9
100 11 35 0.753 0.785 1.918 58.4 33.8
100 12 35 0.737 0.848 1.939 59.6 36.4
100 13 35 0.738 0.862 1.959 50.4 38.1
100 14 36 0.715 0.861 2.016 46.5 40.9
100 15 37 0.576 0.694 1.479 47.7 37.6
100 16 36 0.627 0.699 1.554 48.3 38.1
101 1 7 -0.528 0.852 -0.702 63.4 4.5
101 2 7 -0.699 1.129 -0.771 62.5 9.5
101 3 7 -0.773 1.094 -0.938 62.2 15.1
101 4 7 -0.812 0.991 -1.125 66.2 21.9
101 5 7 -0.826 1.041 -1.466 60.9 28.5
101 6 7 -0.817 1.261 -1.817 67.3 29.4
101 7 7 -0.856 1.441 -2.181 77.0 28.8
101 8 7 -0.633 1.708 -1.755 78.7 31.5
101 9 7 -0.247 1.093 -0.459 84.0 32.5
101 10 7 0.004 1.379 0.004 88.3 34.3
101 11 7 0.091 1.427 0.033 88.9 33.2
101 12 7 -0.271 1.121 -0.047 87.4 35.2
101 13 7 -0.307 0.920 -0.037 82.2 31.7
101 14 7 -0.056 0.960 -0.006 74.6 33.5
101 15 7 0.057 0.931 0.009 69.0 35.7
101 16 7 0.038 0.968 0.008 66.5 37.0
102 1 83 0.383 0.328 0.466 101.7 4.0
102 2 87 0.362 0.483 0.423 99.0 6.4
102 3 85 0.338 0.573 0.394 103.0 9.3
102 4 87 0.330 0.697 0.426 108.0 11.6
102 5 87 0.363 0.734 0.490 110.1 13.7
102 6 85 0.407 0.778 0.561 120.2 14.3
102 7 87 0.392 0.775 0.522 125.4 17.2
102 8 86 0.374 0.742 0.446 130.8 19.0
102 9 84 0.324 0.712 0.388 127.0 19.4
102 10 84 0.328 0.624 0.392 124.2 19.0
102 11 84 0.294 0.493 0.341 123.7 19.9
102 12 84 0.202 0.389 0.229 119.8 22.1
102 13 84 0.161 0.262 0.187 119.0 23.5
102 14 84 0.153 0.231 0.182 121.1 25.3
102 15 84 0.105 0.238 0.114 125.3 28.8
102 16 84 0.107 0.279 0.111 131.3 32.9
103 1 104 0.331 -nan 0.692 80.0 4.9
103 2 104 0.532 -nan 1.054 81.9 8.6
103 3 103 0.642 -nan 1.237 79.7 11.8
103 4 102 0.724 -nan 1.428 78.0 14.5
103 5 101 0.755 -nan 1.496 75.8 18.2
103 6 100 0.763 -nan 1.517 71.8 21.8
103 7 99 0.753 -nan 1.471 69.6 23.8
103 8 98 0.759 -nan 1.498 66.8 25.7
103 9 98 0.726 -nan 1.492 63.0 28.1
103 10 99 0.653 -nan 1.404 58.2 33.8
103 11 100 0.558 -nan 1.228 53.8 39.7
103 12 101 0.462 -nan 1.008 51.7 44.6
103 13 102 0.379 -nan 0.825 49.5 50.0
103 14 103 0.325 -nan 0.690 48.1 54.5
103 15 104 0.269 -nan 0.555 46.9 60.1
103 16 105 0.241 -nan 0.486 45.8 65.0
105 1 6 0.227 1.153 2.049 75.8 9.1
105 2 5 0.039 1.758 0.410 74.7 11.2
105 3 4 0.683 1.001 10.971 97.5 18.8
105 7 4 -0.157 1.218 -0.709 60.4 16.3
120 1 73 -0.321 0.373 -1.209 97.4 2.7
120 2 73 0.327 0.406 1.060 97.1 10.0
120 3 73 0.592 0.641 1.420 105.5 16.3
120 4 74 0.668 0.757 1.402 96.1 19.3
120 5 74 0.734 0.833 1.384 96.7 21.8
120 6 73 0.774 0.940 1.360 97.9 25.0
120 7 72 0.836 0.944 1.383 81.6 27.0
120 8 72 0.760 0.788 1.276 74.8 31.4
120 9 73 0.551 0.587 0.896 68.5 36.3
120 10 74 0.540 0.674 0.808 63.3 41.1
120 11 74 0.450 0.679 0.652 63.7 44.4
120 12 74 0.087 0.213 0.130 68.2 48.7
120 13 74 -0.106 0.107 -0.147 70.0 52.0
120 14 74 -0.174 0.113 -0.241 69.8 51.3
120 15 74 -0.211 0.485 -0.256 68.4 54.9
120 16 74 -0.211 0.553 -0.203 68.0 60.0
137 1 6 0.623 0.725 0.431 77.4 1.6
137 2 5 0.621 0.963 0.407 58.6 3.8
137 3 4 0.759 1.291 0.476 51.6 3.6
137 5 7 0.726 0.996 0.512 26.0 8.6
137 6 6 0.747 1.048 0.643 52.2 11.3
137 7 7 0.459 1.247 0.330 60.6 12.8
137 8 7 0.008 1.324 0.009 59.4 13.8
137 9 5 -0.332 1.250 -0.059 47.3 17.8
137 10 4 0.666 1.895 1.036 57.4 20.9
137 12 4 -0.626 1.682 -0.797 53.9 13.9
137 13 6 -0.706 1.054 -1.079 62.2 18.2
137 14 6 -0.631 0.926 -0.968 59.2 21.2
137 15 5 -0.635 1.828 -0.846 56.3 22.3
137 16 4 -0.769 1.781 -1.032 45.0 45.4


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Robert Grumbine

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National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Environmental Modeling Center
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