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Ice drift verification for 2006

Statistics for all months of 2006 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
607 1 0.380 0.686 0.650 70.7 4.2
603 2 0.409 0.769 0.773 65.8 7.5
600 3 0.388 0.802 0.746 62.9 10.1
591 4 0.380 0.835 0.735 63.4 12.9
557 5 0.386 0.842 0.737 58.9 14.7
558 6 0.342 0.787 0.704 58.9 17.0
559 7 0.362 0.806 0.710 57.9 18.6
563 8 0.324 0.726 0.695 60.9 21.5
566 9 0.313 0.696 0.663 62.1 24.0
570 10 0.300 0.650 0.676 63.9 27.0
571 11 0.291 0.606 0.708 65.5 29.7
574 12 0.289 0.574 0.696 66.2 31.7
576 13 0.292 0.553 0.696 67.5 32.9
574 14 0.290 0.534 0.684 70.5 34.3
574 15 0.296 0.519 0.703 71.8 34.9
535 16 0.276 0.489 0.684 73.7 36.9

Forecasts at all lead times, scored by month for year 2006

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
768 1 0.542 0.416 0.651 64.1 14.1
699 2 0.235 0.417 0.182 74.9 15.6
1202 3 0.659 1.072 0.904 55.7 18.7
556 4 0.467 0.272 0.700 47.0 13.1
1045 5 0.637 0.616 1.844 72.6 22.3
572 6 0.313 0.203 0.671 80.4 15.3
958 7 0.311 0.680 0.566 51.4 16.2
772 8 0.558 0.371 0.890 66.6 23.6
1366 9 0.542 0.594 1.330 60.0 33.5
687 10 0.587 0.567 1.182 63.3 22.9
219 11 0.646 0.843 2.120 76.1 56.2
338 12 0.484 0.192 1.348 93.0 34.3

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Lead Observations Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
50 1 4 0.907 1.708 2.739 72.2 8.4
50 2 5 -0.554 1.011 -0.756 91.9 14.9
50 3 5 -0.914 0.972 -5.784 99.7 24.8
50 4 5 -0.346 1.034 -3.647 104.4 28.4
50 5 5 -0.018 0.877 -0.178 81.4 25.9
50 6 5 0.028 0.549 0.364 65.7 36.1
50 7 5 0.578 0.934 7.777 56.8 51.9
50 8 5 0.420 1.292 4.233 53.6 71.4
50 9 5 0.500 1.216 2.779 57.9 82.2
50 10 5 0.624 0.826 2.257 63.1 81.9
50 11 5 0.869 1.340 1.993 63.7 84.9
50 12 5 0.602 1.514 1.138 62.8 92.4
50 13 5 -0.379 1.223 -0.411 63.1 95.2
50 14 5 -0.397 1.061 -0.263 63.6 97.9
50 15 5 0.564 1.460 0.313 65.7 95.3
50 16 5 0.613 1.001 0.251 67.6 87.4
66 1 59 0.291 0.457 0.561 72.0 3.9
66 2 58 0.543 0.788 0.916 71.3 5.1
66 3 57 0.643 0.851 0.924 65.3 6.0
66 4 56 0.620 0.884 0.711 70.4 7.8
66 5 56 0.574 0.890 0.594 57.9 9.7
66 6 56 0.565 0.939 0.543 58.5 11.1
66 7 56 0.462 0.961 0.462 59.5 12.2
66 8 56 0.427 0.926 0.421 68.1 13.3
66 9 57 0.467 0.870 0.416 74.8 13.9
66 10 58 0.219 0.664 0.244 77.9 18.1
66 11 59 0.304 0.590 0.382 83.7 21.0
66 12 59 0.238 0.510 0.327 81.2 24.7
66 13 59 0.220 0.481 0.281 79.5 22.9
66 14 59 0.213 0.466 0.252 84.1 20.4
66 15 58 0.161 0.459 0.161 84.9 20.8
66 16 55 0.117 0.479 0.113 86.5 17.5
67 1 58 0.314 1.083 0.417 83.5 4.8
67 2 57 0.276 1.189 0.345 68.4 8.6
67 3 56 0.180 1.235 0.223 58.6 12.4
67 4 55 0.129 1.261 0.147 60.4 15.6
67 5 54 0.082 1.200 0.097 58.1 16.0
67 6 54 0.183 1.233 0.231 61.1 16.9
67 7 55 0.254 1.184 0.360 60.0 17.5
67 8 55 0.306 1.176 0.482 62.6 17.7
67 9 55 0.291 1.115 0.475 63.8 19.8
67 10 55 0.231 1.038 0.367 64.9 19.6
67 11 55 0.117 0.892 0.167 64.0 18.4
67 12 54 0.081 0.849 0.105 60.9 20.3
67 13 53 0.011 0.704 0.013 64.5 23.3
67 14 51 0.007 0.603 0.007 73.0 23.9
67 15 50 -0.021 0.505 -0.019 75.5 21.2
67 16 50 -0.034 0.410 -0.029 81.3 22.7
70 1 35 0.091 0.124 0.099 93.4 5.0
70 2 41 -0.018 0.098 -0.011 90.7 7.7
70 3 44 0.101 0.121 0.045 87.1 12.8
70 4 43 0.217 0.179 0.080 89.0 16.1
70 5 13 -0.052 0.864 -0.023 60.0 23.6
70 6 14 0.008 1.055 0.003 70.6 25.3
70 7 16 -0.023 0.849 -0.008 82.2 27.2
70 8 17 0.105 0.725 0.036 95.2 29.8
70 9 17 0.242 0.748 0.095 94.2 29.9
70 10 19 0.086 0.373 0.045 98.7 30.8
70 11 20 -0.052 0.326 -0.034 99.4 31.4
70 12 20 -0.191 0.217 -0.134 91.4 32.2
70 13 21 -0.168 0.189 -0.118 89.0 30.4
70 14 23 -0.156 0.157 -0.111 92.1 29.2
70 15 25 -0.216 0.137 -0.168 92.9 29.7
70 16 27 -0.289 0.250 -0.235 97.1 32.9
82 1 8 0.513 0.892 0.689 58.9 7.4
82 2 8 0.410 1.116 0.436 63.3 10.0
82 3 8 0.663 1.068 0.510 57.9 9.3
82 4 8 0.875 1.637 0.539 48.8 12.1
82 5 8 0.961 1.799 0.710 47.0 15.6
82 6 8 0.865 1.527 0.630 46.8 22.3
82 7 8 0.839 1.347 0.497 51.5 30.3
82 8 8 0.754 1.042 0.413 56.2 32.0
82 9 8 0.557 0.946 0.305 61.6 30.4
82 10 8 0.027 0.628 0.015 63.4 36.8
82 11 8 -0.319 0.432 -0.181 66.3 40.0
82 12 8 -0.473 0.535 -0.311 68.3 41.6
82 13 8 -0.474 0.955 -0.316 68.2 48.2
82 14 8 0.003 1.003 0.002 67.6 58.6
82 15 8 0.674 1.303 0.368 64.2 71.0
82 16 8 0.888 1.465 0.389 62.9 80.4
83 1 23 0.620 1.041 1.062 90.2 4.6
83 2 23 0.657 1.208 1.167 81.0 6.9
83 3 23 0.738 1.471 1.341 79.7 9.4
83 4 23 0.672 1.592 1.243 69.7 11.9
83 5 22 0.616 1.504 0.990 68.8 12.5
83 6 23 0.509 1.395 0.760 60.9 15.7
83 7 23 0.586 1.268 0.822 57.5 15.8
83 8 23 0.707 1.185 0.991 67.0 18.4
83 9 23 0.796 1.112 1.071 67.8 19.8
83 10 23 0.786 0.998 1.018 78.9 21.1
83 11 23 0.659 0.879 0.797 79.7 22.0
83 12 23 0.513 0.751 0.587 72.5 22.7
83 13 23 0.555 0.774 0.618 65.9 21.9
83 14 23 0.604 0.835 0.717 62.4 22.8
83 15 23 0.571 0.832 0.688 52.6 22.8
83 16 23 0.545 0.776 0.639 65.3 24.2
84 1 160 0.417 0.682 0.465 72.2 2.6
84 2 158 0.500 0.832 0.582 66.3 4.8
84 3 161 0.511 0.911 0.629 64.9 6.2
84 4 160 0.486 0.964 0.616 60.6 7.6
84 5 161 0.433 0.959 0.563 59.2 8.9
84 6 160 0.348 0.932 0.439 58.3 10.0
84 7 159 0.264 0.890 0.313 56.4 11.0
84 8 161 0.174 0.849 0.199 55.8 12.7
84 9 161 0.135 0.797 0.153 57.3 13.9
84 10 161 0.043 0.750 0.048 56.7 16.0
84 11 161 -0.024 0.690 -0.027 57.9 16.8
84 12 161 -0.003 0.642 -0.003 60.6 17.9
84 13 161 0.013 0.574 0.014 64.7 18.3
84 14 159 0.009 0.511 0.009 70.7 19.5
84 15 160 0.049 0.482 0.050 73.6 20.4
84 16 153 0.069 0.446 0.073 72.3 20.0
85 1 14 0.820 1.361 1.068 28.3 3.0
85 2 14 0.828 1.623 1.078 22.3 7.3
85 3 14 0.709 1.575 0.961 21.7 12.2
85 4 14 0.740 1.392 1.099 35.5 15.8
85 5 14 0.667 0.737 1.281 31.5 18.3
85 6 14 0.611 0.591 1.278 36.0 20.7
85 7 14 0.396 0.364 0.826 30.7 25.0
85 8 14 0.048 0.221 0.116 41.9 28.2
85 9 14 -0.022 0.278 -0.050 33.6 29.0
85 10 14 0.126 0.347 0.267 33.4 30.8
85 11 14 0.101 0.262 0.186 38.2 36.1
85 12 14 -0.028 0.177 -0.046 40.4 41.9
85 13 14 -0.073 0.094 -0.114 41.8 47.8
85 14 14 -0.082 0.088 -0.104 43.1 51.8
85 15 14 -0.049 0.108 -0.048 44.5 54.8
85 16 14 -0.052 0.106 -0.040 45.6 61.8
86 1 31 0.292 0.627 0.289 73.9 3.5
86 2 28 0.243 0.644 0.240 65.7 5.2
86 3 25 0.209 0.633 0.187 68.6 6.2
86 4 22 0.138 0.827 0.128 66.0 6.9
86 5 21 0.315 1.222 0.314 67.1 8.4
86 6 20 0.436 1.229 0.467 61.9 9.1
86 7 19 0.446 1.119 0.646 71.2 8.5
86 8 17 0.374 1.136 0.576 80.5 10.6
86 9 17 0.040 0.824 0.068 73.1 13.9
86 10 16 0.061 0.733 0.127 74.8 17.6
86 11 16 0.199 1.003 0.342 73.3 15.3
86 12 18 0.275 0.930 0.356 61.3 15.0
86 13 20 0.440 0.890 0.405 61.8 16.2
86 14 22 0.338 0.621 0.276 61.3 17.6
86 15 24 0.426 0.625 0.329 61.3 15.9
86 16 15 0.189 0.359 0.069 70.3 11.9
87 1 9 0.224 0.140 0.274 26.4 5.4
87 2 9 0.258 0.491 0.330 23.0 10.1
87 3 9 0.360 0.841 0.514 22.6 15.0
87 4 9 0.343 1.069 0.671 26.0 18.5
87 5 9 0.104 0.968 0.172 27.0 24.0
87 6 9 0.038 0.986 0.062 27.7 28.5
87 7 9 0.122 0.999 0.206 33.4 29.3
87 8 9 0.057 0.948 0.099 36.6 29.9
87 9 9 0.132 0.945 0.209 38.3 31.2
87 10 9 0.141 0.953 0.224 42.7 34.0
87 11 9 0.324 1.054 0.464 45.3 38.7
87 12 9 0.356 1.072 0.446 43.4 43.5
87 13 9 0.354 1.074 0.400 40.7 49.2
87 14 9 0.410 1.055 0.453 40.0 54.8
87 15 9 0.365 0.959 0.403 43.8 58.7
87 16 9 0.269 0.848 0.283 54.7 66.2
89 1 4 -0.260 1.762 -0.676 40.3 12.7
89 9 4 0.752 1.608 0.354 25.3 93.5
89 10 5 0.916 1.275 0.258 19.7 104.7
89 11 5 0.389 1.209 0.108 18.3 121.2
89 12 5 0.141 0.560 0.036 20.2 139.4
89 13 5 0.111 1.030 0.062 19.3 167.0
89 14 5 0.148 0.477 0.133 22.7 188.9
89 15 5 0.149 0.652 0.162 36.0 183.0
89 16 5 0.373 0.986 0.409 37.0 205.4
98 1 5 0.968 1.917 1.876 15.1 3.8
98 2 5 0.928 1.804 1.499 12.1 8.2
98 3 5 0.936 1.946 1.254 11.6 12.1
98 4 5 0.966 1.091 1.102 9.5 16.8
98 5 5 0.977 1.082 0.976 8.9 22.4
98 6 5 0.964 1.004 0.892 9.5 28.7
98 7 5 0.964 1.082 0.892 7.7 33.5
98 8 5 0.926 1.022 0.855 9.8 32.7
98 9 5 0.882 1.319 0.979 14.4 32.7
98 10 5 0.823 1.595 1.146 18.1 28.7
98 11 5 0.916 1.256 1.261 19.5 24.6
98 12 5 0.961 1.154 1.029 23.8 24.0
98 13 5 0.811 0.897 0.887 33.2 19.0
98 14 5 0.850 1.195 1.122 37.4 19.6
98 15 5 0.970 1.806 1.638 44.1 16.1
98 16 5 0.987 1.911 1.732 53.1 12.0
99 1 22 0.248 0.681 0.481 57.5 6.4
99 2 22 0.156 0.731 0.268 61.5 11.5
99 3 22 0.111 0.785 0.166 51.3 15.1
99 4 22 -0.185 0.795 -0.243 45.5 18.2
99 5 22 -0.388 0.807 -0.425 34.8 21.2
99 6 22 -0.446 0.772 -0.469 44.4 26.1
99 7 22 -0.530 0.795 -0.489 32.1 29.8
99 8 22 -0.506 0.795 -0.476 31.8 36.0
99 9 22 -0.511 0.787 -0.502 31.0 42.4
99 10 22 -0.489 0.781 -0.516 33.1 47.6
99 11 22 -0.531 0.760 -0.605 37.3 52.5
99 12 22 -0.533 0.751 -0.646 44.3 53.4
99 13 22 -0.529 0.757 -0.720 48.2 53.5
99 14 21 -0.616 0.724 -0.881 51.1 54.3
99 15 20 -0.597 0.714 -0.876 50.5 55.0
99 16 19 -0.549 0.662 -0.761 50.8 57.5
100 1 77 0.641 1.229 0.864 49.4 3.1
100 2 77 0.613 1.326 0.863 39.2 5.9
100 3 77 0.594 1.322 0.833 33.0 8.3
100 4 77 0.546 1.244 0.785 38.8 11.1
100 5 77 0.514 1.159 0.845 51.0 13.2
100 6 77 0.452 1.131 0.774 51.5 15.8
100 7 77 0.386 1.086 0.701 48.9 18.4
100 8 77 0.342 1.006 0.642 54.3 21.4
100 9 77 0.292 0.857 0.585 58.8 24.5
100 10 78 0.254 0.709 0.552 60.6 26.5
100 11 75 0.218 0.570 0.507 62.5 29.5
100 12 76 0.237 0.471 0.597 68.4 30.7
100 13 75 0.210 0.378 0.555 70.6 32.0
100 14 74 0.191 0.323 0.510 74.3 33.7
100 15 73 0.192 0.281 0.522 76.5 34.5
100 16 57 0.075 0.202 0.236 80.4 41.3
102 1 24 0.445 0.184 0.658 91.5 2.6
102 2 24 0.466 0.144 0.714 100.3 4.9
102 3 24 0.387 0.131 0.609 102.1 7.0
102 4 24 0.186 0.075 0.324 110.3 7.6
102 5 24 0.061 0.055 0.097 104.1 9.9
102 6 24 0.106 0.182 0.134 106.5 10.6
102 7 24 0.219 0.287 0.247 106.5 12.4
102 8 24 0.098 0.269 0.101 109.2 15.4
102 9 24 0.010 0.246 0.009 102.4 14.5
102 10 24 0.002 0.336 0.002 106.1 19.7
102 11 24 0.070 0.350 0.058 105.6 22.8
102 12 24 0.033 0.275 0.025 117.3 25.4
102 13 24 -0.020 0.261 -0.014 115.3 25.9
102 14 24 -0.016 0.348 -0.010 102.5 25.6
102 15 24 -0.038 0.295 -0.020 107.1 24.9
102 16 24 0.115 0.296 0.061 101.2 30.3
103 1 33 0.390 nan 0.756 58.8 4.8
103 2 33 0.341 nan 0.711 46.2 9.1
103 3 33 0.301 nan 0.667 42.5 13.3
103 4 33 0.438 nan 0.886 38.4 17.9
103 5 33 0.516 nan 0.937 29.4 21.4
103 6 33 0.612 nan 0.978 28.2 24.1
103 7 33 0.667 nan 1.020 28.1 25.0
103 8 33 0.736 nan 1.096 27.4 25.8
103 9 33 0.666 nan 0.937 26.7 27.1
103 10 33 0.464 nan 0.655 26.8 28.8
103 11 33 0.328 nan 0.461 26.6 31.6
103 12 33 0.307 nan 0.416 27.4 34.3
103 13 33 0.286 nan 0.367 27.8 38.1
103 14 33 0.214 nan 0.253 28.3 41.0
103 15 33 0.127 nan 0.154 28.0 44.6
103 16 33 0.087 nan 0.106 27.4 47.6
123 1 4 -0.606 1.190 -1.307 18.5 19.0
123 2 4 -0.847 1.768 -1.284 18.2 36.4
123 3 4 -0.895 1.126 -0.991 20.9 51.0
123 4 4 -0.771 1.083 -2.253 25.0 59.7
123 5 4 -0.675 1.325 -3.306 26.2 61.8
123 6 4 -0.509 1.285 -3.190 26.3 58.9
123 7 4 -0.112 1.483 -0.766 27.2 52.7
123 8 4 0.417 1.613 2.376 28.3 46.7
123 9 4 0.722 1.450 2.968 28.7 43.3
123 10 4 0.567 1.824 2.452 30.5 44.0
123 11 4 -0.032 1.771 -0.170 32.5 46.8
123 12 4 0.277 1.006 1.611 35.6 47.7
123 13 4 0.143 1.025 0.534 37.2 50.6
123 14 4 0.312 1.112 0.949 39.4 53.7
123 15 4 0.407 1.204 0.940 41.0 55.5
135 1 5 -0.457 1.351 -1.061 45.8 6.1
135 2 4 -0.632 1.393 -0.607 25.5 12.2
135 8 4 0.068 1.016 0.057 58.8 24.2
135 9 5 0.534 0.368 0.283 58.2 23.3
135 10 5 0.287 0.917 0.082 57.1 16.3
135 11 5 0.364 0.595 0.067 48.9 21.3
135 12 5 -0.887 0.772 -0.092 46.4 27.8
135 13 5 0.480 1.100 0.066 49.7 29.9
135 14 5 0.166 1.026 0.026 57.4 40.4
135 15 5 0.242 0.753 0.045 64.0 56.3
135 16 5 0.012 0.938 0.005 68.0 75.4


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Last Modified 10 March 2014
Robert Grumbine

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Environmental Modeling Center
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Jun-2014 16:02:47 UTC