Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Environmental Modeling Center

 
 

Ice drift verification for 2005

Statistics for all months of 2005 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
300 1 0.252 0.486 0.503 70.1 4.4
287 2 0.420 0.661 0.843 69.9 8.4
290 3 0.377 0.666 0.737 69.3 12.2
291 4 0.354 0.714 0.747 68.1 16.0
299 5 0.373 0.728 0.873 65.8 19.7
297 6 0.400 0.763 0.967 63.9 22.7
301 7 0.390 0.746 0.943 64.3 26.3
312 8 0.386 0.691 0.917 65.4 29.5
310 9 0.387 0.674 0.943 67.0 32.2
306 10 0.382 0.631 0.948 68.2 35.5
308 11 0.378 0.573 1.001 69.8 37.7
297 12 0.393 0.545 1.061 71.7 41.6
300 13 0.369 0.506 0.999 75.6 46.8
298 14 0.368 0.483 0.997 78.2 49.0
287 15 0.373 0.457 1.035 79.0 53.1
259 16 0.342 0.408 0.930 80.9 57.4

Forecasts at all lead times, scored by month for year 2005

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
197 1 0.273 0.669 0.416 74.9 22.7
227 2 0.435 0.512 1.306 76.2 42.3
363 3 0.166 0.128 0.163 81.6 11.2
340 4 0.393 0.938 2.616 49.1 51.5
435 5 0.813 0.816 1.209 118.1 17.3
344 6 0.851 0.937 1.705 44.9 27.2
133 7 -0.002 0.242 -0.002 69.5 11.2
598 8 0.679 0.295 1.686 75.3 37.3
1395 9 0.639 0.870 1.357 62.5 34.2
323 10 0.592 1.156 1.155 42.3 34.8
361 11 0.590 0.571 1.016 52.5 26.0
30 12 -0.647 1.333 -0.315 43.9 19.8

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Lead Observations Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
67 1 26 0.162 0.571 0.304 71.7 2.9
67 2 19 0.568 1.095 1.132 73.4 5.8
67 3 20 0.309 1.132 0.538 71.5 14.0
67 4 22 0.401 1.303 0.633 72.1 21.0
67 5 22 0.381 1.416 0.457 52.6 21.8
67 6 24 0.425 1.508 0.558 39.1 23.0
67 7 25 0.429 1.437 0.685 38.0 25.3
67 8 26 0.328 1.469 0.618 34.8 30.0
67 9 26 0.258 1.425 0.572 45.4 29.9
67 10 21 0.382 1.346 0.784 39.0 34.1
67 11 20 0.022 1.165 0.052 36.8 38.0
67 12 20 -0.196 0.807 -0.499 56.5 38.2
67 13 18 -0.281 0.771 -0.665 74.3 46.8
67 14 19 -0.017 0.812 -0.034 74.1 42.5
67 15 22 0.077 0.655 0.140 77.4 39.3
67 16 16 -0.122 0.345 -0.152 80.0 42.4
68 1 4 0.017 1.254 0.009 106.2 7.2
68 3 4 -0.576 1.030 -1.216 104.6 5.3
68 4 4 0.017 1.142 0.033 102.1 8.2
68 5 4 0.522 1.068 0.459 114.7 4.4
68 6 4 0.088 1.114 0.048 99.8 5.1
68 7 4 -0.448 1.008 -0.160 88.6 7.0
68 8 4 -0.092 1.048 -0.034 81.8 9.9
68 9 4 0.284 1.281 0.126 73.7 12.8
68 10 4 0.606 1.009 0.356 67.6 15.7
68 11 4 0.761 1.068 0.562 63.6 22.2
68 12 4 0.733 1.000 0.321 63.3 26.3
68 13 4 0.902 1.998 0.178 62.6 29.9
68 14 4 0.502 1.834 0.058 60.9 31.6
68 15 4 0.338 1.492 0.044 58.8 32.5
68 16 4 0.392 1.366 0.044 54.8 35.9
82 11 4 0.255 1.965 1.321 98.9 53.7
83 1 40 0.243 0.667 0.486 68.2 5.4
83 2 38 0.254 0.949 0.451 67.9 11.7
83 3 36 0.261 1.014 0.395 71.8 17.2
83 4 36 0.290 1.093 0.376 70.1 18.0
83 5 37 0.300 1.183 0.412 60.3 24.5
83 6 36 0.264 1.033 0.383 57.1 29.5
83 7 36 0.266 0.915 0.363 58.7 31.5
83 8 37 0.289 0.922 0.399 63.4 34.7
83 9 35 0.255 0.928 0.380 63.2 38.1
83 10 33 0.137 0.794 0.219 63.7 45.3
83 11 33 0.155 0.769 0.263 68.6 45.1
83 12 34 0.287 0.791 0.481 71.2 48.2
83 13 36 0.249 0.738 0.388 77.3 54.1
83 14 35 0.163 0.653 0.226 85.3 57.3
83 15 32 0.048 0.727 0.061 73.5 64.1
83 16 31 0.024 0.744 0.032 71.5 63.1
84 1 41 0.438 0.408 0.560 85.5 2.6
84 2 39 0.405 0.627 0.510 81.6 5.5
84 3 37 0.390 0.827 0.476 79.3 8.3
84 4 31 0.446 0.985 0.560 62.6 8.9
84 5 35 0.496 1.080 0.697 66.5 11.1
84 6 32 0.743 1.356 1.256 67.2 13.6
84 7 31 0.714 1.220 1.429 70.0 16.6
84 8 34 0.364 0.825 0.861 70.2 19.4
84 9 33 0.315 0.757 0.581 69.0 21.3
84 10 35 0.274 0.706 0.429 67.1 21.9
84 11 36 0.127 0.538 0.186 72.2 22.2
84 12 26 0.193 0.623 0.158 79.1 17.1
84 13 29 0.237 0.489 0.248 83.7 19.0
84 14 30 0.296 0.460 0.438 86.2 20.3
84 15 28 0.265 0.427 0.553 85.9 27.4
84 16 31 0.299 0.288 0.576 91.2 25.4
87 13 4 -0.849 1.176 -2.526 70.0 23.5
89 4 4 0.126 1.670 0.027 52.8 80.0
89 5 5 -0.925 1.602 -0.322 20.1 102.3
89 6 5 -0.926 1.837 -0.717 24.7 97.3
89 7 4 -0.670 1.998 -1.347 30.3 107.2
89 9 4 -0.150 1.767 -0.167 35.5 113.1
89 10 5 0.955 1.845 2.333 32.8 120.1
89 11 5 0.870 1.825 1.044 38.3 112.9
89 12 5 0.703 1.793 0.362 39.8 115.5
89 13 5 0.697 1.093 0.372 39.6 115.7
89 14 5 0.030 0.903 0.033 39.9 118.3
89 15 5 0.107 1.216 0.100 40.0 129.3
89 16 4 0.569 1.935 0.364 40.0 139.1
99 1 12 0.327 0.522 0.787 78.8 5.1
99 2 12 0.262 0.583 0.924 90.2 11.7
99 3 12 0.552 0.691 2.109 93.2 9.7
99 4 12 0.567 1.029 1.577 92.0 8.3
99 5 12 0.532 1.319 0.944 92.8 10.0
99 6 12 0.515 1.270 0.768 88.5 12.6
99 7 12 0.292 1.172 0.408 84.9 15.5
99 8 12 -0.104 1.045 -0.139 90.4 26.1
99 9 12 -0.508 0.948 -0.780 88.5 32.5
99 10 12 -0.636 0.915 -1.711 85.6 32.5
99 11 12 -0.279 0.759 -1.151 83.8 29.8
99 12 11 0.195 0.650 0.709 88.0 33.2
99 13 11 0.389 0.557 1.224 93.7 39.4
99 14 11 0.355 0.528 1.001 93.9 39.8
99 15 10 0.428 0.457 1.206 94.1 40.5
99 16 10 0.505 0.649 1.392 91.6 38.3
100 1 75 0.070 1.183 0.132 52.0 4.0
100 2 73 0.204 1.348 0.297 62.4 7.2
100 3 73 0.230 1.325 0.306 61.0 10.9
100 4 74 0.304 1.259 0.448 70.5 14.9
100 5 74 0.485 1.132 0.785 66.5 17.5
100 6 74 0.645 1.052 1.131 66.4 18.1
100 7 74 0.686 0.932 1.294 65.7 23.4
100 8 75 0.659 0.820 1.123 64.8 27.6
100 9 73 0.683 0.789 1.032 64.6 33.4
100 10 72 0.681 0.742 0.927 65.3 40.1
100 11 71 0.654 0.766 0.930 63.3 44.6
100 12 72 0.547 0.750 0.845 62.2 52.2
100 13 70 0.429 0.664 0.714 61.6 64.3
100 14 68 0.298 0.624 0.532 62.4 74.1
100 15 64 0.227 0.773 0.404 63.6 82.1
100 16 62 0.140 0.785 0.238 65.2 87.9
101 1 16 0.540 0.748 1.516 54.8 11.0
101 2 16 0.462 0.959 0.608 28.8 16.7
101 3 14 0.119 1.154 0.090 23.4 23.4
101 4 15 -0.774 1.236 -1.176 14.5 29.1
101 5 12 -0.660 1.186 -1.914 13.1 25.5
101 6 12 -0.729 1.607 -1.906 12.5 26.6
101 7 12 -0.390 1.286 -0.816 12.9 28.3
101 8 13 0.131 1.000 0.181 13.2 33.6
101 9 13 0.413 1.044 0.305 15.1 33.4
101 10 13 0.488 0.943 0.172 11.7 37.7
101 11 13 -0.147 0.868 -0.037 12.1 39.9
101 12 13 -0.589 0.781 -0.478 13.5 39.5
101 13 12 -0.586 0.847 -0.634 13.0 37.3
101 14 12 -0.694 0.765 -1.450 14.1 31.5
101 15 10 -0.868 1.744 -3.172 14.3 27.2
102 1 18 0.838 0.713 1.274 102.9 1.4
102 2 17 0.872 0.914 1.182 105.8 2.8
102 3 17 0.922 0.985 1.215 112.7 4.8
102 4 17 0.920 1.024 1.314 118.9 7.7
102 5 17 0.690 1.000 1.248 125.1 13.1
102 6 17 -0.024 0.524 -0.031 128.6 18.0
102 7 18 0.521 0.437 0.271 129.9 19.7
102 8 19 0.152 0.645 0.064 133.0 20.4
102 9 19 -0.130 0.684 -0.022 139.3 22.8
102 10 19 -0.021 0.566 -0.003 143.5 26.1
102 11 19 -0.441 0.837 -0.078 145.9 30.4
102 12 19 -0.324 1.199 -0.062 147.2 36.0
102 13 19 0.117 0.929 0.025 147.1 40.0
102 14 19 0.234 0.707 0.060 147.3 39.1
102 15 19 0.185 0.637 0.061 147.0 35.7
102 16 19 -0.001 0.769 -0.001 148.0 37.0
103 1 5 -0.268 nan -4.765 31.7 6.1
103 2 9 0.137 nan 0.969 45.9 7.9
103 3 12 0.312 nan 1.164 52.3 9.2
103 4 15 0.518 nan 1.367 55.5 10.6
103 5 17 0.479 nan 0.763 56.9 11.9
103 6 19 0.383 nan 0.546 57.2 12.3
103 7 21 0.338 nan 0.410 57.4 11.9
103 8 23 0.220 nan 0.231 57.5 11.4
103 9 25 0.187 nan 0.170 57.3 10.6
103 10 27 0.170 nan 0.143 56.4 10.3
103 11 28 0.039 nan 0.029 55.3 9.9
103 12 28 0.020 nan 0.017 54.4 10.2
103 13 28 0.175 nan 0.160 53.4 9.7
103 14 28 0.230 nan 0.212 52.4 10.0
103 15 28 0.109 nan 0.100 51.5 11.9
103 16 28 0.059 nan 0.057 48.7 14.1
118 8 4 0.445 1.138 0.705 8.4 61.6
118 16 4 -0.872 1.371 -0.486 24.1 154.4
119 1 35 0.390 0.817 0.440 52.7 2.6
119 2 36 0.339 0.863 0.417 54.9 4.3
119 3 36 0.443 0.959 0.539 48.5 4.8
119 4 36 0.370 0.895 0.395 42.4 5.1
119 5 36 0.397 0.891 0.412 41.6 5.8
119 6 35 0.395 0.980 0.329 38.2 6.7
119 7 36 0.049 0.918 0.043 40.3 10.6
119 8 36 -0.113 0.895 -0.088 41.0 12.1
119 9 36 -0.124 0.821 -0.088 44.6 10.5
119 10 36 -0.149 0.590 -0.110 52.4 8.7
119 11 36 -0.099 0.433 -0.086 59.4 8.1
119 12 36 -0.124 0.288 -0.116 66.0 9.2
119 13 36 -0.105 0.177 -0.105 79.3 12.5
119 14 36 -0.012 0.106 -0.013 87.9 13.1
119 15 36 -0.018 0.068 -0.020 97.2 13.6
119 16 23 0.155 0.505 0.219 98.8 16.2
133 9 5 -0.038 1.664 -0.067 21.7 53.2
133 10 5 0.050 1.081 0.061 21.1 67.2
133 11 5 0.176 1.610 0.213 20.6 79.8
133 12 6 0.278 1.560 0.420 20.8 90.9
133 13 6 0.156 1.234 0.250 17.8 109.2
133 14 6 0.170 1.840 0.245 15.7 126.9
133 15 5 0.712 1.003 0.718 13.6 131.1
133 16 5 0.745 1.740 0.602 15.4 151.4


Return to main drift statistics page
Last Modified 10 March 2014
Robert Grumbine

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Environmental Modeling Center
W/NP 21, NCWCP
5830 Unversity Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: EMC Webmaster
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Jun-2014 16:02:45 UTC