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Ice drift verification for 2004

Statistics for all months of 2004 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
488 1 0.327 0.398 0.614 77.7 4.2
467 2 0.346 0.510 0.708 73.1 8.2
466 3 0.351 0.540 0.666 71.2 11.0
461 4 0.340 0.551 0.650 69.4 14.3
456 5 0.306 0.542 0.744 69.4 19.3
453 6 0.277 0.502 0.671 69.0 22.0
447 7 0.241 0.460 0.535 69.3 23.2
439 8 0.268 0.434 0.593 71.2 25.3
438 9 0.256 0.403 0.554 70.9 27.2
437 10 0.253 0.376 0.561 73.8 29.2
435 11 0.238 0.327 0.407 76.3 28.9
439 12 0.196 0.262 0.320 76.7 31.0
445 13 0.157 0.260 0.258 76.7 34.7
445 14 0.181 0.246 0.285 78.4 36.3
448 15 0.177 0.195 0.272 81.1 37.8
411 16 0.189 0.150 0.289 82.8 39.2

Forecasts at all lead times, scored by month for year 2004

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
1083 1 0.570 0.335 1.143 65.5 30.5
188 2 0.435 0.325 0.405 81.0 13.8
201 3 0.700 0.957 0.772 54.0 22.8
471 4 0.417 0.335 1.566 65.3 23.0
744 5 0.686 0.255 1.204 103.7 20.0
333 6 0.389 0.482 0.786 92.7 17.8
400 7 0.579 0.867 0.387 72.8 9.1
777 8 0.413 0.481 0.750 61.8 24.3
679 9 0.282 0.206 0.655 74.2 26.4
816 10 0.378 0.323 0.455 61.7 26.8
1183 11 0.425 0.372 0.626 74.8 25.2
304 12 0.703 0.720 1.542 73.1 31.8

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Lead Observations Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
36 1 6 -0.829 1.409 -1.774 110.0 10.6
36 2 5 -0.856 1.884 -2.069 135.5 19.5
36 3 4 -0.957 1.980 -1.992 135.7 30.1
66 1 20 0.222 0.444 0.256 85.2 7.4
66 2 19 0.171 0.542 0.172 72.2 11.3
66 3 19 0.202 0.778 0.206 58.6 14.3
66 4 20 0.197 0.875 0.228 56.9 19.6
66 5 18 0.020 0.867 0.025 56.1 27.4
66 6 18 -0.014 0.978 -0.015 58.8 40.0
66 7 17 0.063 1.113 0.059 56.5 45.2
66 8 18 0.335 1.209 0.361 72.3 44.5
66 9 18 0.543 1.316 0.618 65.1 49.4
66 10 19 0.546 1.268 0.633 64.5 57.4
66 11 18 0.396 1.080 0.450 65.0 67.9
66 12 20 0.503 0.916 0.608 76.0 75.1
66 13 21 0.293 0.604 0.342 74.9 77.7
66 14 21 0.148 0.355 0.157 76.5 82.8
66 15 20 0.125 0.270 0.123 86.5 86.7
66 16 10 -0.487 0.507 -0.338 75.6 66.2
67 1 43 0.496 0.681 0.580 74.1 3.3
67 2 37 0.539 0.853 0.591 76.8 6.4
67 3 33 0.469 0.829 0.564 73.8 11.3
67 4 32 0.379 0.848 0.454 81.8 14.9
67 5 33 0.325 0.792 0.357 87.1 17.1
67 6 34 0.365 0.659 0.400 87.8 16.6
67 7 36 0.358 0.603 0.429 80.9 16.7
67 8 37 0.388 0.638 0.428 85.0 15.2
67 9 38 0.319 0.710 0.279 77.0 17.8
67 10 34 0.298 0.830 0.253 76.4 20.3
67 11 36 0.186 0.749 0.158 79.6 27.1
67 12 37 0.003 0.608 0.002 68.1 31.3
67 13 39 -0.110 0.597 -0.073 62.1 37.1
67 14 37 -0.031 0.508 -0.020 66.4 38.7
67 15 40 0.073 0.405 0.045 70.3 35.7
67 16 42 0.102 0.383 0.064 73.5 32.8
68 1 74 0.371 0.551 0.498 66.4 2.8
68 2 77 0.255 0.603 0.382 57.8 6.0
68 3 80 0.165 0.614 0.289 53.2 8.6
68 4 82 0.106 0.572 0.190 53.0 10.8
68 5 80 0.083 0.548 0.154 55.4 12.4
68 6 79 0.107 0.512 0.206 57.3 14.2
68 7 79 0.101 0.452 0.202 63.0 16.5
68 8 80 0.146 0.415 0.278 61.1 16.9
68 9 81 0.125 0.375 0.240 58.6 17.3
68 10 81 0.117 0.337 0.230 59.1 19.6
68 11 81 0.101 0.294 0.209 59.1 21.5
68 12 81 0.091 0.230 0.172 60.8 22.3
68 13 82 0.027 0.198 0.050 64.9 23.9
68 14 82 0.058 0.188 0.102 68.3 26.0
68 15 83 0.055 0.212 0.086 68.0 28.4
68 16 65 0.076 0.173 0.132 63.1 31.8
82 1 6 0.852 1.492 3.992 83.3 8.3
82 2 6 0.873 1.608 2.025 61.9 14.6
82 3 7 0.907 1.742 1.479 74.4 16.7
82 4 6 0.938 1.950 1.313 80.1 12.1
82 5 5 0.927 1.890 0.981 65.7 8.2
82 6 6 0.542 0.975 0.271 35.2 14.8
82 7 6 0.340 1.368 0.131 40.6 23.3
82 8 4 -0.810 1.836 -0.930 15.1 39.4
82 9 4 -0.683 1.871 -1.063 17.6 45.8
82 10 4 -0.522 1.692 -1.087 23.3 44.8
82 11 5 -0.022 1.266 -0.020 26.4 48.3
82 12 5 -0.076 1.267 -0.136 29.3 33.3
82 13 5 -0.172 1.539 -0.190 31.4 30.1
82 14 6 0.193 1.527 0.102 30.2 33.1
82 15 7 0.165 1.331 0.074 29.5 40.2
82 16 8 0.099 1.319 0.038 45.2 42.3
83 1 13 0.741 0.892 1.687 48.1 2.9
83 2 13 0.849 1.384 1.544 46.4 4.7
83 3 13 0.770 1.435 1.177 44.0 6.5
83 4 13 0.649 1.438 0.979 38.8 11.5
83 5 14 0.579 1.580 0.839 31.5 19.7
83 6 14 0.535 1.496 0.710 31.3 26.1
83 7 14 0.367 1.130 0.435 35.0 30.4
83 8 14 0.153 0.935 0.157 40.8 34.2
83 9 13 -0.301 0.992 -0.217 38.8 33.1
83 10 14 -0.505 1.435 -0.471 61.8 36.0
83 11 14 -0.553 1.042 -0.610 66.3 34.9
83 12 14 -0.787 0.809 -0.832 68.5 33.2
83 13 12 -0.568 0.706 -0.521 51.5 35.7
83 14 11 -0.428 0.677 -0.444 55.0 35.9
83 15 11 -0.266 0.757 -0.320 59.7 31.7
83 16 10 -0.293 0.751 -0.437 61.2 31.8
85 1 9 0.864 1.229 0.846 30.6 1.1
85 2 7 0.948 1.880 1.528 22.5 2.8
85 3 6 0.971 1.920 1.523 13.9 5.0
85 4 6 0.996 1.918 1.334 6.1 11.3
85 5 7 0.991 1.904 1.110 14.3 13.4
85 6 6 0.699 1.670 0.871 11.6 22.1
85 7 7 0.433 0.931 0.476 20.4 23.4
85 8 6 0.076 1.095 0.074 29.0 18.4
85 9 5 -0.454 0.964 -0.273 37.2 15.1
85 10 4 0.994 1.017 0.326 73.1 11.1
86 1 48 0.569 1.090 0.586 62.5 1.9
86 2 47 0.615 1.214 0.600 66.2 3.4
86 3 48 0.621 1.259 0.615 69.3 5.0
86 4 48 0.581 1.285 0.540 65.9 6.2
86 5 47 0.552 1.248 0.549 63.9 7.3
86 6 47 0.474 1.159 0.463 57.3 7.9
86 7 46 0.426 1.036 0.389 58.0 9.0
86 8 45 0.340 0.912 0.305 64.2 9.9
86 9 46 0.321 0.947 0.327 58.4 11.2
86 10 48 0.354 0.915 0.372 63.7 11.0
86 11 50 0.324 0.873 0.312 64.0 11.5
86 12 51 0.271 0.737 0.268 64.2 11.6
86 13 53 0.256 0.726 0.266 65.8 14.4
86 14 51 0.185 0.593 0.182 71.5 15.2
86 15 49 0.132 0.447 0.120 79.4 15.1
86 16 49 0.154 0.392 0.130 78.7 14.4
89 1 9 0.510 0.697 0.828 72.1 8.4
89 2 9 0.011 0.855 0.023 87.1 19.3
89 3 9 -0.213 1.002 -0.701 77.4 25.9
89 4 9 0.395 1.003 1.099 79.0 31.9
89 5 9 -0.231 1.690 -0.142 77.1 34.0
89 6 9 -0.652 1.117 -0.331 50.4 42.0
89 7 9 -0.509 1.742 -0.231 60.4 48.1
89 8 9 -0.676 1.746 -0.413 29.8 53.5
89 9 9 -0.827 1.049 -0.744 35.4 43.7
89 10 9 -0.981 1.040 -0.587 37.6 35.1
89 11 9 -0.412 0.755 -0.158 40.3 27.2
89 12 9 0.436 0.813 0.139 40.1 24.0
89 13 9 0.198 1.477 0.070 36.8 25.8
89 14 9 0.238 0.920 0.070 35.3 24.5
89 15 9 0.630 0.732 0.341 32.9 25.3
89 16 9 0.632 0.933 0.545 29.2 41.0
99 1 54 0.304 0.874 0.411 75.1 4.5
99 2 54 0.185 0.852 0.264 69.8 8.5
99 3 55 0.093 0.883 0.138 73.7 12.8
99 4 54 0.147 0.924 0.238 69.3 16.8
99 5 54 0.060 0.914 0.097 69.4 20.1
99 6 53 0.046 1.020 0.069 66.3 23.0
99 7 50 -0.012 1.023 -0.017 65.1 25.2
99 8 49 0.022 0.896 0.030 62.7 25.8
99 9 49 0.059 0.830 0.074 62.2 28.7
99 10 48 0.046 0.878 0.057 58.6 30.7
99 11 45 -0.096 0.819 -0.129 63.8 34.1
99 12 43 -0.196 0.730 -0.278 68.6 34.0
99 13 44 -0.252 0.789 -0.370 72.5 35.8
99 14 45 -0.130 0.808 -0.166 73.8 39.4
99 15 45 -0.056 0.663 -0.065 76.7 42.7
99 16 42 -0.066 0.604 -0.080 78.8 41.8
100 1 41 0.370 0.741 0.655 71.1 3.6
100 2 40 0.398 0.840 0.645 57.6 7.0
100 3 40 0.363 0.940 0.597 51.5 9.7
100 4 39 0.185 0.963 0.331 46.9 12.3
100 5 38 0.159 0.953 0.293 51.7 13.2
100 6 39 0.118 0.817 0.225 58.8 13.6
100 7 39 0.041 0.736 0.078 58.2 14.6
100 8 39 -0.062 0.697 -0.112 61.4 15.1
100 9 39 -0.215 0.586 -0.370 64.3 15.5
100 10 40 -0.245 0.773 -0.392 66.2 16.0
100 11 41 -0.232 0.789 -0.335 68.6 16.2
100 12 40 -0.342 0.792 -0.447 73.6 17.7
100 13 41 -0.354 0.765 -0.457 78.9 23.3
100 14 41 -0.322 0.601 -0.396 81.4 24.6
100 15 41 -0.280 0.461 -0.314 84.2 26.0
100 16 40 -0.190 0.373 -0.191 84.8 24.8
102 1 48 0.252 0.727 0.433 131.6 2.5
102 2 43 0.399 0.840 0.704 130.8 4.3
102 3 44 0.612 0.896 0.993 126.7 5.8
102 4 43 0.664 0.829 1.048 126.6 7.5
102 5 39 0.714 0.745 1.047 123.8 9.3
102 6 38 0.689 0.645 0.933 124.8 10.9
102 7 38 0.668 0.646 0.890 121.0 12.1
102 8 37 0.618 0.744 0.793 127.8 14.6
102 9 36 0.676 1.238 0.879 137.5 16.2
102 10 38 0.652 1.133 0.784 145.4 18.3
102 11 40 0.600 0.784 0.800 147.0 21.2
102 12 43 0.587 0.666 0.812 140.2 21.3
102 13 42 0.478 0.580 0.679 132.8 23.1
102 14 43 0.393 0.532 0.468 130.8 23.6
102 15 43 0.390 0.535 0.428 127.1 23.4
102 16 40 0.156 0.477 0.179 125.1 24.7
103 1 11 0.339 nan 0.934 23.6 8.1
103 2 11 0.867 nan 1.943 19.5 13.4
103 3 11 0.838 nan 1.420 18.8 16.8
103 4 11 0.776 nan 1.179 18.2 20.6
103 5 11 0.794 nan 1.133 17.5 25.5
103 6 11 0.776 nan 1.129 16.8 30.9
103 7 11 0.771 nan 1.255 15.6 36.1
103 8 11 0.843 nan 1.451 14.6 39.2
103 9 11 0.820 nan 1.435 14.0 40.6
103 10 11 0.775 nan 1.292 13.2 42.6
103 11 11 0.780 nan 1.210 12.7 45.4
103 12 11 0.731 nan 0.959 12.5 48.5
103 13 11 0.745 nan 0.904 12.2 50.2
103 14 11 0.746 nan 0.928 12.1 50.9
103 15 11 0.706 nan 0.856 12.0 52.1
103 16 11 0.600 nan 0.717 12.9 53.0
104 1 53 -0.051 0.160 -0.142 55.9 3.7
104 2 50 -0.029 0.320 -0.068 43.3 8.3
104 3 51 0.057 0.443 0.133 49.7 12.4
104 4 50 0.093 0.720 0.231 37.9 16.2
104 5 49 0.027 0.824 0.066 47.7 19.1
104 6 48 0.098 0.732 0.214 56.1 21.7
104 7 47 0.124 0.656 0.254 63.1 24.1
104 8 47 0.081 0.627 0.166 62.6 27.8
104 9 47 0.057 0.579 0.115 62.9 33.0
104 10 47 -0.045 0.480 -0.085 64.9 38.0
104 11 47 -0.119 0.382 -0.201 67.4 41.7
104 12 47 -0.225 0.310 -0.337 69.8 48.3
104 13 47 -0.294 0.249 -0.417 75.8 53.3
104 14 47 -0.209 0.210 -0.282 74.0 53.5
104 15 47 -0.162 0.234 -0.210 78.8 61.4
104 16 47 -0.128 0.359 -0.153 96.0 72.4
117 1 20 -0.050 0.831 -0.067 76.0 6.8
117 2 19 -0.036 1.015 -0.044 81.5 10.6
117 3 18 -0.087 1.194 -0.087 79.0 13.4
117 4 18 -0.068 1.260 -0.067 82.7 18.7
117 5 19 0.131 1.210 0.125 90.6 25.3
117 6 18 0.182 1.077 0.162 87.0 25.6
117 7 17 0.124 0.857 0.100 85.0 27.0
117 8 17 -0.052 0.729 -0.045 79.4 33.8
117 9 18 0.011 0.801 0.010 69.5 42.5
117 10 17 -0.031 0.747 -0.031 67.2 41.6
117 11 17 0.035 0.769 0.030 67.8 35.7
117 12 16 0.016 0.782 0.013 65.6 42.2
117 13 17 -0.031 0.762 -0.025 55.0 59.9
117 14 18 -0.221 0.753 -0.175 52.7 64.7
117 15 16 -0.318 0.955 -0.209 60.6 58.8
117 16 12 0.290 0.508 0.153 60.2 68.9


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Last Modified 10 March 2014
Robert Grumbine

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Environmental Modeling Center
W/NP 21, NCWCP
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Jun-2014 16:02:42 UTC