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Ice drift verification for 2003

Statistics for all months of 2003 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
391 1 0.263 0.396 0.547 75.0 5.1
381 2 0.340 0.600 0.675 66.9 9.1
377 3 0.412 0.673 0.793 68.6 12.0
372 4 0.360 0.694 0.660 67.9 14.6
371 5 0.323 0.711 0.587 65.4 17.1
370 6 0.258 0.648 0.465 64.5 20.1
367 7 0.199 0.571 0.350 66.9 22.8
365 8 0.186 0.518 0.311 69.2 25.4
361 9 0.196 0.464 0.323 69.4 27.9
360 10 0.228 0.452 0.367 72.5 29.3
358 11 0.237 0.428 0.372 72.4 30.0
359 12 0.255 0.421 0.382 74.2 29.7
358 13 0.247 0.421 0.360 76.3 31.0
357 14 0.240 0.332 0.347 78.3 32.1
354 15 0.217 0.269 0.314 77.7 33.3
328 16 0.201 0.265 0.298 76.2 36.9

Forecasts at all lead times, scored by month for year 2003

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
287 1 0.606 0.351 0.653 29.9 27.7
549 2 0.726 0.126 1.109 87.5 17.4
148 3 0.756 0.667 1.290 51.3 21.1
303 4 0.647 0.790 0.666 51.3 17.7
942 5 0.203 0.431 0.245 68.2 17.5
563 6 0.662 0.376 1.260 93.7 20.1
111 7 0.664 0.719 2.692 52.4 136.5
285 8 0.551 0.400 1.064 59.5 26.2
557 9 0.375 0.542 0.777 72.3 35.6
779 10 0.656 0.606 0.824 63.4 20.5
648 11 0.666 0.489 1.000 77.1 19.0
661 12 0.558 0.524 0.481 74.8 15.9

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Lead Observations Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
66 1 51 0.011 0.562 0.019 77.3 6.4
66 2 50 0.050 0.689 0.083 64.9 12.1
66 3 50 -0.025 0.721 -0.043 62.7 16.7
66 4 49 -0.063 0.717 -0.117 68.5 19.9
66 5 49 -0.040 0.667 -0.097 68.3 25.4
66 6 49 -0.083 0.668 -0.232 62.0 30.7
66 7 49 -0.071 0.651 -0.192 62.7 34.6
66 8 49 -0.043 0.558 -0.107 65.5 36.9
66 9 49 -0.013 0.638 -0.035 57.6 41.9
66 10 49 -0.013 0.628 -0.037 58.5 41.9
66 11 49 -0.056 0.574 -0.165 57.7 43.6
66 12 49 -0.050 0.594 -0.155 57.3 45.2
66 13 49 -0.081 0.684 -0.257 54.3 49.9
66 14 50 -0.085 0.655 -0.278 54.8 50.3
66 15 50 -0.149 0.583 -0.505 49.1 53.4
66 16 50 -0.218 0.616 -0.735 46.4 56.8
67 1 110 0.388 0.453 0.976 75.5 5.4
67 2 109 0.325 0.699 0.667 63.1 9.5
67 3 107 0.292 0.864 0.495 62.6 12.8
67 4 106 0.218 0.956 0.329 58.1 14.8
67 5 105 0.141 0.972 0.192 54.3 18.2
67 6 105 0.046 0.886 0.057 56.5 21.9
67 7 105 -0.007 0.773 -0.009 60.3 24.2
67 8 105 0.053 0.688 0.056 66.5 25.6
67 9 105 0.149 0.639 0.157 71.2 24.8
67 10 105 0.240 0.581 0.240 78.0 24.8
67 11 104 0.262 0.536 0.250 77.3 24.3
67 12 106 0.315 0.511 0.298 80.8 23.4
67 13 107 0.316 0.488 0.293 85.1 23.0
67 14 108 0.329 0.454 0.295 87.5 24.7
67 15 109 0.350 0.426 0.309 88.6 25.0
67 16 97 0.395 0.448 0.336 85.8 25.9
69 1 4 0.950 1.112 0.641 95.8 2.2
69 2 4 0.871 1.056 0.657 83.6 4.0
69 3 4 0.804 1.298 0.873 131.6 4.0
69 4 4 0.982 1.006 1.450 92.2 3.6
69 5 4 0.993 1.013 1.069 79.9 5.9
69 6 4 0.868 1.214 1.003 74.8 4.4
69 7 4 0.837 1.022 1.393 78.3 7.6
69 8 4 0.602 1.012 1.363 69.6 11.6
69 9 4 -0.343 1.661 -0.770 69.0 10.9
69 10 4 -0.848 1.750 -1.810 82.4 10.0
69 11 4 -0.706 1.048 -1.300 95.4 13.0
69 12 4 -0.817 1.093 -2.813 103.6 13.8
69 13 4 -0.996 1.349 -3.089 105.8 12.9
69 14 4 -0.876 1.571 -1.262 105.0 16.3
69 15 4 -0.757 1.380 -0.934 108.0 24.3
69 16 4 -0.782 1.056 -1.284 110.4 32.9
82 1 8 0.681 0.947 1.297 49.3 7.6
82 2 8 0.908 1.309 2.026 31.5 11.6
82 3 8 0.876 0.987 1.644 22.2 14.6
82 4 8 0.691 0.983 1.065 13.4 21.0
82 5 8 0.581 1.130 0.764 16.1 22.2
82 6 8 0.499 0.599 0.520 18.1 24.6
82 7 8 0.275 0.403 0.146 19.4 28.2
82 8 8 -0.725 0.806 -0.205 19.4 33.8
82 9 8 -0.842 1.268 -0.645 19.8 37.8
82 10 8 -0.622 1.551 -0.843 19.3 37.5
82 11 8 -0.506 1.224 -0.659 17.2 38.4
82 12 8 -0.563 0.969 -0.682 16.9 37.6
82 13 8 -0.611 0.852 -0.736 18.2 33.6
82 14 8 -0.647 0.773 -0.660 15.0 31.1
82 15 8 -0.646 1.284 -0.611 14.5 31.4
82 16 8 -0.634 1.283 -0.586 14.3 32.8
84 1 88 0.258 0.538 0.363 68.7 4.2
84 2 83 0.371 0.736 0.580 65.8 6.4
84 3 81 0.493 0.902 0.885 65.1 8.4
84 4 80 0.554 0.938 1.009 71.0 10.5
84 5 80 0.566 0.892 0.992 73.9 11.3
84 6 79 0.584 0.916 1.019 72.6 11.8
84 7 77 0.571 0.887 1.001 72.6 13.0
84 8 76 0.449 0.839 0.794 67.7 14.6
84 9 74 0.355 0.844 0.595 63.8 17.2
84 10 73 0.353 0.798 0.566 64.5 19.6
84 11 72 0.315 0.701 0.485 63.8 20.9
84 12 72 0.222 0.645 0.327 64.4 22.8
84 13 69 0.099 0.579 0.136 65.1 25.5
84 14 67 0.037 0.473 0.053 65.7 25.7
84 15 66 -0.001 0.466 -0.002 70.2 29.8
84 16 53 -0.022 0.410 -0.031 68.6 37.5
98 1 8 0.106 0.419 0.157 101.0 5.0
98 2 8 0.642 0.728 1.044 49.5 9.5
98 3 8 0.845 0.831 1.750 41.6 14.5
98 4 8 0.825 0.732 1.104 31.7 22.0
98 5 8 0.560 0.550 0.668 30.4 27.1
98 6 8 0.411 0.497 0.428 32.3 29.1
98 7 8 0.204 0.562 0.146 29.3 33.4
98 8 8 -0.209 1.112 -0.089 26.2 39.2
98 9 8 -0.846 1.002 -0.405 23.6 44.3
98 10 8 -0.819 1.066 -0.592 23.9 44.3
98 11 8 -0.743 0.640 -0.613 25.2 43.9
98 12 8 -0.754 0.855 -0.605 25.9 41.1
98 13 8 -0.764 0.950 -0.555 25.0 37.5
98 14 8 -0.697 0.641 -0.482 25.2 33.7
98 15 8 -0.690 0.822 -0.478 24.1 35.4
98 16 8 -0.773 0.782 -0.523 24.8 36.5
102 1 14 0.606 1.283 0.645 113.1 1.7
102 2 14 0.560 1.523 0.607 116.0 3.4
102 3 14 0.630 1.439 0.783 126.4 5.2
102 4 14 0.710 1.132 0.941 125.4 5.7
102 5 14 0.744 1.129 1.137 124.3 9.0
102 6 14 0.723 1.175 1.323 124.4 13.3
102 7 14 0.638 1.361 1.285 121.9 16.7
102 8 14 0.524 1.390 1.123 120.0 21.0
102 9 14 0.454 1.342 0.973 121.3 27.5
102 10 14 0.357 1.186 0.782 122.7 32.7
102 11 14 0.328 1.046 0.694 118.0 39.0
102 12 14 0.328 1.021 0.669 124.2 43.9
102 13 14 0.348 0.974 0.725 125.5 48.8
102 14 14 0.346 0.884 0.716 124.0 47.6
102 15 14 0.348 0.835 0.717 118.5 41.7
102 16 14 0.343 0.833 0.668 119.4 46.6
104 1 17 -0.619 0.257 -0.774 97.9 5.0
104 2 17 -0.625 0.710 -0.861 93.0 13.2
104 3 17 0.196 1.232 0.175 108.0 7.5
104 4 17 0.202 0.897 0.154 94.7 7.5
104 5 17 -0.345 0.319 -0.401 75.6 8.8
104 6 17 -0.670 1.178 -1.070 70.3 9.8
104 7 17 -0.856 1.534 -1.232 77.5 11.6
104 8 17 -0.779 0.788 -0.846 78.6 17.6
104 9 17 -0.866 0.521 -0.752 92.2 27.6
104 10 17 -0.865 0.768 -0.717 89.8 28.3
104 11 17 -0.640 0.678 -0.473 92.1 31.6
104 12 17 -0.582 0.873 -0.443 87.4 39.0
104 13 17 -0.381 1.149 -0.342 89.7 43.0
104 14 17 0.000 0.374 0.000 106.2 48.3
104 15 16 0.249 0.388 0.284 114.9 57.0
104 16 15 0.266 0.448 0.343 113.2 63.1
115 1 7 -0.460 1.126 -3.625 55.6 15.1
115 2 6 0.658 1.009 1.483 80.9 24.3
115 3 8 0.935 1.464 2.464 100.3 31.4
115 4 6 0.879 1.443 2.750 102.5 40.1
115 5 5 0.253 1.345 0.633 101.8 20.6
115 6 5 0.077 1.122 0.129 91.6 18.3
115 7 4 -0.613 1.001 -0.950 95.5 12.6
115 8 4 -0.215 1.499 -0.354 111.4 22.7
117 1 27 0.467 0.369 0.882 82.0 2.7
117 2 26 0.046 0.436 0.077 71.4 4.1
117 3 26 -0.164 0.632 -0.288 63.4 5.8
117 4 26 -0.068 0.656 -0.098 61.0 7.9
117 5 26 0.325 0.685 0.584 52.7 9.2
117 6 26 0.430 0.638 0.827 53.1 13.1
117 7 25 0.396 0.593 0.685 65.2 14.2
117 8 24 0.335 0.475 0.547 78.7 14.3
117 9 24 0.434 0.780 0.719 82.1 16.2
117 10 24 0.437 0.695 0.753 80.0 18.4
117 11 24 0.459 0.648 0.811 79.5 17.1
117 12 24 0.484 0.566 0.872 80.7 15.0
117 13 24 0.504 0.365 0.828 79.8 15.8
117 14 24 0.247 0.213 0.343 74.2 18.0
117 15 24 0.344 0.332 0.406 72.7 16.1
117 16 24 0.297 0.233 0.328 74.9 20.1
118 1 29 0.679 1.172 1.053 57.7 2.4
118 2 29 0.734 1.315 1.099 52.9 3.9
118 3 29 0.724 1.357 1.021 48.5 5.6
118 4 29 0.664 1.361 0.864 48.7 8.0
118 5 29 0.556 1.257 0.705 49.9 11.7
118 6 29 0.392 1.061 0.526 49.2 17.0
118 7 29 0.299 0.856 0.408 52.2 21.2
118 8 29 0.233 0.711 0.316 49.6 26.7
118 9 29 0.232 0.635 0.300 46.1 29.7
118 10 29 0.291 0.611 0.377 57.4 32.2
118 11 29 0.320 0.538 0.449 61.6 30.2
118 12 29 0.272 0.449 0.382 63.4 29.8
118 13 29 0.199 0.387 0.278 63.8 32.2
118 14 28 0.131 0.324 0.179 62.7 31.3
118 15 27 0.045 0.294 0.066 60.5 29.3
118 16 26 -0.105 0.239 -0.149 61.2 28.9
135 1 13 0.363 0.807 0.747 43.0 7.8
135 2 13 0.662 1.078 1.441 32.3 15.1
135 3 13 0.832 1.104 1.823 25.0 25.3
135 4 13 0.862 1.029 1.909 25.0 32.6
135 5 13 0.862 0.965 1.914 31.5 37.7
135 6 13 0.845 0.901 2.032 34.1 45.0
135 7 13 0.780 0.730 2.006 34.5 49.5
135 8 13 0.593 0.494 1.564 38.2 53.5
135 9 13 0.403 0.470 1.166 40.3 58.2
135 10 13 0.259 0.337 0.694 43.2 58.9
135 11 13 0.213 0.223 0.496 46.0 56.4
135 12 13 0.210 0.405 0.420 49.2 53.1
135 13 13 0.162 0.538 0.274 51.6 48.3
135 14 13 0.032 0.487 0.043 55.0 43.8
135 15 13 0.040 0.375 0.049 60.9 38.0
135 16 13 0.091 0.398 0.091 65.8 36.2


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Last Modified 10 March 2014
Robert Grumbine

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Environmental Modeling Center
W/NP 21, NCWCP
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Jun-2014 16:02:40 UTC