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Ice drift verification for 2002

Statistics for all months of 2002 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
495 1 0.379 0.606 0.752 70.2 4.3
474 2 0.400 0.702 0.745 66.4 7.8
472 3 0.375 0.726 0.708 64.0 11.0
469 4 0.359 0.740 0.708 62.3 14.4
464 5 0.390 0.763 0.786 64.0 17.1
460 6 0.409 0.788 0.826 65.5 19.1
464 7 0.399 0.738 0.831 67.5 21.1
462 8 0.372 0.685 0.795 71.0 23.0
468 9 0.367 0.651 0.832 74.3 25.9
461 10 0.381 0.605 0.863 78.8 27.7
450 11 0.323 0.470 0.692 82.4 27.6
443 12 0.307 0.441 0.671 85.5 30.0
452 13 0.322 0.437 0.760 85.4 32.9
453 14 0.350 0.430 0.845 86.3 34.9
454 15 0.333 0.383 0.781 87.1 35.4
405 16 0.272 0.287 0.602 88.6 37.5

Forecasts at all lead times, scored by month for year 2002

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
461 1 0.316 0.410 0.433 68.9 29.8
61 2 0.841 0.616 1.421 59.5 21.7
468 3 0.618 0.939 1.407 65.3 18.9
1164 4 0.592 0.620 1.739 76.2 29.1
1705 5 0.340 0.466 0.593 66.9 15.3
1091 6 0.529 0.520 1.233 77.3 21.3
317 7 0.526 0.739 0.805 60.3 23.2
427 8 0.552 0.350 1.295 81.9 32.7
753 9 0.379 0.132 0.834 97.6 23.5
293 10 0.540 0.486 0.566 91.1 10.3
187 11 0.829 0.927 1.821 48.2 65.6
423 12 0.514 0.402 0.353 72.6 13.9

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Lead Observations Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
49 1 16 -0.021 0.935 -0.044 59.7 4.1
49 2 14 -0.157 0.826 -0.313 46.7 7.9
49 3 14 -0.259 0.520 -0.553 59.0 14.8
49 4 13 -0.244 0.531 -0.438 63.5 18.1
49 5 13 -0.073 0.540 -0.123 76.0 19.8
49 6 13 0.017 0.484 0.028 82.4 20.1
49 7 13 0.086 0.287 0.167 83.5 20.3
49 8 13 0.073 0.210 0.195 88.3 23.0
49 9 13 -0.128 0.259 -0.347 89.0 26.3
49 10 13 0.026 0.327 0.068 97.4 26.7
49 11 13 0.114 0.299 0.260 98.6 31.0
49 12 13 0.140 0.357 0.297 99.1 35.3
49 13 13 0.088 0.434 0.175 101.9 35.2
49 14 13 0.089 0.545 0.169 107.8 37.4
49 15 13 0.045 0.336 0.085 110.1 41.1
49 16 13 -0.007 0.321 -0.015 112.0 51.3
56 1 4 -0.332 1.528 -0.673 130.3 10.2
62 1 5 -0.618 0.818 -0.951 81.6 3.8
62 2 4 -0.844 1.816 -1.206 83.6 3.5
62 3 4 -0.994 1.920 -2.076 70.9 17.5
62 4 4 -0.868 1.529 -2.551 57.7 38.6
62 5 4 -0.548 1.449 -2.885 44.5 85.9
67 1 123 0.474 0.722 0.672 77.7 2.7
67 2 123 0.512 0.857 0.714 74.3 4.7
67 3 125 0.466 0.913 0.649 69.2 6.5
67 4 126 0.386 0.844 0.529 62.7 8.0
67 5 126 0.344 0.730 0.467 63.4 10.3
67 6 127 0.303 0.662 0.442 65.2 11.3
67 7 127 0.323 0.638 0.497 66.5 12.4
67 8 127 0.303 0.565 0.489 73.5 14.1
67 9 127 0.269 0.473 0.459 82.3 15.4
67 10 127 0.267 0.392 0.476 91.2 17.3
67 11 126 0.264 0.340 0.492 94.9 18.3
67 12 125 0.255 0.321 0.497 99.6 20.4
67 13 125 0.228 0.301 0.468 103.1 21.7
67 14 125 0.202 0.272 0.430 103.2 21.7
67 15 125 0.151 0.255 0.325 101.9 22.3
67 16 111 0.087 0.284 0.190 100.7 26.4
81 1 13 0.130 0.465 0.259 87.9 7.4
81 2 14 -0.058 0.500 -0.084 85.2 14.9
81 3 13 -0.357 0.865 -0.334 73.5 18.7
81 4 14 -0.279 0.864 -0.170 66.4 18.8
81 5 14 -0.440 0.963 -0.251 54.6 18.3
81 6 14 -0.578 0.638 -0.439 47.9 22.6
81 7 14 -0.630 0.571 -0.504 41.5 29.0
81 8 14 -0.418 0.628 -0.370 41.0 29.7
81 9 14 -0.185 0.700 -0.153 40.5 26.3
81 10 14 -0.208 0.660 -0.170 40.1 27.9
81 11 14 -0.215 0.663 -0.146 40.2 25.2
81 12 14 -0.173 0.699 -0.116 42.5 25.9
81 13 14 -0.055 0.699 -0.042 43.2 27.2
81 14 14 -0.116 0.591 -0.089 43.8 30.6
81 15 14 0.104 0.518 0.079 45.5 27.4
81 16 14 0.187 0.565 0.136 45.9 28.4
82 1 31 0.381 0.703 0.980 58.5 7.6
82 2 29 0.382 1.047 1.068 50.6 16.5
82 3 30 0.423 1.242 1.125 43.5 24.2
82 4 30 0.488 1.250 1.263 41.7 31.0
82 5 30 0.688 1.127 1.523 51.4 32.3
82 6 31 0.652 1.150 1.589 57.1 37.1
82 7 31 0.590 1.154 1.495 55.4 41.6
82 8 33 0.469 1.147 1.208 62.0 49.9
82 9 33 0.416 1.064 0.939 61.6 53.5
82 10 32 0.440 1.013 0.956 58.0 53.3
82 11 32 0.480 0.873 1.010 66.8 51.5
82 12 33 0.491 0.664 1.028 75.6 54.3
82 13 33 0.518 0.611 1.080 79.7 64.3
82 14 33 0.549 0.514 1.100 87.6 73.0
82 15 33 0.566 0.430 1.044 91.2 77.4
82 16 32 0.685 0.443 1.157 88.7 83.5
85 1 33 0.614 0.955 0.851 65.3 2.8
85 2 31 0.358 0.788 0.540 62.5 7.3
85 3 32 0.279 0.791 0.493 61.7 8.1
85 4 32 0.234 0.602 0.360 76.3 9.4
85 5 32 0.200 0.516 0.276 79.9 9.0
85 6 32 0.036 0.460 0.040 82.2 10.1
85 7 32 -0.096 0.491 -0.085 81.9 11.8
85 8 31 -0.163 0.514 -0.141 76.8 16.1
85 9 31 -0.003 0.454 -0.003 82.4 15.1
85 10 29 0.088 0.368 0.071 95.5 13.2
85 11 28 0.201 0.330 0.159 106.0 14.2
85 12 29 0.354 0.294 0.272 108.6 13.0
85 13 29 0.319 0.291 0.237 101.6 11.3
85 14 29 0.334 0.241 0.266 96.3 13.5
85 15 29 0.329 0.373 0.330 96.2 14.7
85 16 22 0.170 0.400 0.105 99.5 17.2
86 1 4 0.603 1.385 2.655 28.0 1.8
86 2 4 -0.347 1.039 -0.714 25.3 2.5
86 3 4 -0.836 1.916 -2.262 27.4 6.3
86 4 4 0.710 1.021 0.725 27.6 7.2
86 5 4 0.021 1.702 0.011 31.6 5.3
86 6 4 -0.127 1.257 -0.106 36.4 6.9
86 7 4 0.452 1.230 0.320 43.4 7.4
86 8 4 0.230 1.093 0.102 53.2 10.5
86 9 4 0.079 1.948 0.021 61.6 14.3
86 10 4 -0.520 1.541 -0.051 67.8 18.4
86 11 4 -0.339 1.071 -0.020 76.4 22.8
86 12 4 0.972 1.920 0.019 83.7 23.3
86 13 4 0.494 1.991 0.036 91.8 24.0
86 14 4 0.220 1.085 0.016 93.5 23.5
88 1 5 0.405 0.768 0.366 50.3 1.3
88 2 6 0.992 1.958 1.309 45.7 2.4
88 3 7 0.853 1.567 0.933 56.1 3.5
88 4 8 0.944 1.358 1.158 59.9 4.4
88 5 8 0.814 1.441 0.936 66.2 5.9
88 6 9 0.889 1.695 1.085 73.5 5.2
88 7 9 0.893 1.543 0.906 87.5 5.3
88 8 9 0.664 1.324 0.736 110.1 7.0
88 9 9 0.415 1.397 0.346 112.3 7.1
88 10 9 0.049 0.780 0.024 127.0 7.5
88 11 9 0.415 0.965 0.170 137.6 7.4
88 12 9 0.169 0.513 0.078 144.3 12.5
88 13 9 0.281 0.834 0.168 149.9 15.6
88 14 9 0.387 0.586 0.263 155.5 19.2
88 15 9 0.549 0.950 0.355 153.1 20.3
88 16 9 0.707 0.570 0.355 148.6 20.9
89 1 13 0.246 0.781 0.722 61.9 9.3
89 2 13 0.539 0.938 1.973 64.6 18.9
89 3 13 0.525 0.772 1.685 46.4 25.7
89 4 12 0.760 0.929 2.490 72.6 43.7
89 5 11 0.796 0.836 2.381 74.9 61.1
89 6 10 0.856 0.916 2.114 66.2 69.2
89 7 10 0.871 1.505 1.986 68.3 79.1
89 8 9 0.816 1.558 1.727 67.3 84.4
89 9 10 0.714 1.411 1.833 64.6 112.3
89 10 9 0.583 1.141 1.347 69.3 125.1
89 11 8 0.347 1.217 0.710 67.9 138.0
89 12 6 -0.454 0.921 -0.614 38.7 135.6
89 13 6 -0.532 0.905 -0.533 40.4 138.8
89 14 7 -0.473 0.802 -0.468 39.8 157.6
89 15 8 -0.118 0.853 -0.146 36.6 190.0
89 16 4 0.239 1.534 0.346 36.9 237.2
98 1 135 0.536 0.895 1.061 61.0 4.0
98 2 127 0.589 1.029 1.071 55.8 7.5
98 3 120 0.569 1.090 1.149 60.9 10.9
98 4 118 0.494 1.143 0.913 50.0 14.1
98 5 118 0.548 1.143 1.032 53.7 16.4
98 6 115 0.528 1.147 0.913 55.8 17.7
98 7 117 0.550 1.150 0.910 59.4 18.0
98 8 118 0.438 1.075 0.684 60.5 17.9
98 9 121 0.344 1.015 0.505 63.9 19.6
98 10 117 0.228 0.995 0.304 63.1 21.5
98 11 112 0.233 0.824 0.288 65.6 21.7
98 12 107 0.214 0.892 0.230 67.2 21.8
98 13 115 0.093 0.704 0.111 67.0 23.6
98 14 120 -0.037 0.599 -0.048 68.6 26.1
98 15 122 0.028 0.420 0.033 70.4 22.6
98 16 118 -0.041 0.292 -0.049 76.8 24.7
101 1 20 0.256 0.520 0.466 77.7 2.6
101 2 17 0.220 0.713 0.335 67.1 4.2
101 3 17 0.072 0.770 0.100 74.7 5.3
101 4 16 -0.035 1.159 -0.040 68.9 6.5
101 5 15 0.252 0.395 0.227 78.6 8.7
101 6 16 0.340 0.288 0.344 86.6 10.7
101 7 17 0.286 0.514 0.331 92.2 12.8
101 8 15 0.249 0.946 0.312 96.1 10.4
101 9 15 0.565 1.100 0.658 93.5 7.5
101 10 16 0.288 0.741 0.193 96.4 10.9
101 11 14 -0.082 0.645 -0.043 102.0 14.6
101 12 12 -0.097 0.594 -0.044 101.2 16.0
101 13 12 -0.138 0.317 -0.045 88.7 22.1
101 14 11 -0.424 0.466 -0.113 94.7 23.8
101 15 10 -0.759 0.500 -0.231 98.8 30.1
101 16 10 -0.741 0.652 -0.299 91.1 35.8
134 1 67 0.268 0.545 0.587 73.9 4.6
134 2 67 0.447 0.763 0.965 73.8 7.5
134 3 69 0.498 0.854 1.053 66.3 10.6
134 4 69 0.503 0.952 1.014 69.4 13.2
134 5 69 0.466 0.986 0.872 69.8 16.0
134 6 67 0.402 0.983 0.718 68.1 18.6
134 7 69 0.466 0.936 0.840 67.9 19.6
134 8 69 0.452 0.884 0.784 69.8 21.9
134 9 69 0.439 0.847 0.757 67.1 23.7
134 10 69 0.387 0.712 0.641 66.2 25.9
134 11 69 0.337 0.616 0.548 64.7 27.4
134 12 69 0.329 0.543 0.542 70.3 31.7
134 13 69 0.281 0.410 0.449 69.7 33.2
134 14 68 0.233 0.328 0.358 69.2 36.4
134 15 69 0.258 0.276 0.404 75.2 36.4
134 16 53 0.403 0.326 0.712 77.2 43.2


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Last Modified 10 March 2014
Robert Grumbine

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Environmental Modeling Center
W/NP 21, NCWCP
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Jun-2014 16:02:37 UTC