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Ice drift verification for 2001

Statistics for all months of 2001 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
621 1 0.220 0.468 0.357 74.1 4.0
587 2 0.280 0.584 0.447 71.5 7.3
580 3 0.315 0.628 0.483 69.2 9.6
580 4 0.309 0.635 0.483 70.1 12.2
579 5 0.298 0.637 0.493 67.7 15.1
572 6 0.291 0.616 0.503 68.1 17.8
573 7 0.299 0.618 0.544 68.5 19.9
570 8 0.302 0.571 0.576 70.1 22.7
568 9 0.252 0.487 0.553 72.1 25.2
569 10 0.251 0.442 0.563 72.9 26.6
565 11 0.230 0.400 0.522 74.4 28.3
559 12 0.226 0.337 0.525 76.3 31.2
554 13 0.179 0.302 0.424 78.1 33.0
547 14 0.149 0.257 0.330 81.3 33.5
547 15 0.117 0.242 0.249 82.1 33.9
525 16 0.042 0.235 0.077 82.3 34.3

Forecasts at all lead times, scored by month for year 2001

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
1493 1 0.525 0.404 0.533 77.3 14.6
1331 2 0.526 0.380 0.641 76.3 19.2
368 3 0.689 0.728 2.794 85.3 49.1
436 4 0.458 0.519 1.295 60.9 26.3
758 5 0.550 0.877 0.770 57.4 16.7
1001 6 0.502 0.477 0.718 80.9 15.9
1004 7 0.523 0.828 0.855 59.3 23.6
546 8 0.334 0.586 0.349 54.8 22.0
892 9 0.422 0.354 0.580 67.3 17.6
412 10 0.361 0.497 0.263 56.1 16.1
406 11 0.524 0.451 1.310 77.6 42.1
453 12 0.162 0.273 0.518 120.9 39.8

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Lead Observations Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
42 1 7 -0.236 0.660 -0.252 134.6 4.5
42 2 7 0.149 0.625 0.126 150.7 13.4
42 3 7 0.192 0.656 0.173 153.8 24.7
42 4 7 0.101 0.634 0.091 151.8 34.8
42 5 7 0.291 0.511 0.309 153.9 50.6
42 6 7 0.292 0.390 0.349 157.1 64.5
42 7 7 0.367 0.406 0.351 159.3 77.7
42 8 7 -0.112 0.306 -0.055 161.5 89.4
42 9 7 -0.224 0.280 -0.080 159.9 99.3
42 10 7 -0.116 0.488 -0.052 158.7 109.2
42 11 7 -0.206 0.602 -0.102 151.6 109.7
42 12 7 -0.059 0.355 -0.031 147.6 114.2
42 13 7 0.009 0.714 0.004 155.3 129.3
42 14 7 0.016 0.223 0.006 156.7 143.7
42 15 7 -0.227 0.307 -0.097 157.3 157.5
42 16 7 -0.200 0.379 -0.108 160.3 169.2
66 1 76 -0.000 0.578 -0.000 82.7 4.9
66 2 70 0.214 0.689 0.243 77.7 7.9
66 3 68 0.289 0.816 0.288 68.9 9.8
66 4 68 0.242 0.837 0.225 63.3 11.1
66 5 70 0.249 0.860 0.226 60.4 13.5
66 6 70 0.350 0.954 0.301 54.6 13.9
66 7 69 0.459 0.989 0.400 56.8 13.4
66 8 70 0.465 0.942 0.463 58.9 17.2
66 9 70 0.418 0.825 0.449 64.5 18.6
66 10 71 0.340 0.765 0.405 65.5 20.0
66 11 69 0.391 0.715 0.496 74.8 20.0
66 12 67 0.434 0.635 0.606 80.7 22.7
66 13 67 0.394 0.546 0.581 82.8 23.6
66 14 69 0.385 0.506 0.601 84.2 24.2
66 15 71 0.426 0.561 0.694 86.3 23.3
66 16 71 0.180 0.480 0.451 86.8 32.7
67 1 23 0.623 1.160 1.279 62.2 3.4
67 2 22 0.474 1.001 0.903 68.1 6.4
67 3 24 0.294 1.208 0.533 62.6 8.7
67 4 24 0.340 1.215 0.553 71.9 10.7
67 5 22 0.474 0.707 0.981 69.9 10.4
67 6 22 0.480 0.503 1.123 68.1 11.0
67 7 23 0.201 0.632 0.401 63.4 14.2
67 8 22 0.038 0.386 0.084 60.6 17.8
67 9 21 -0.184 0.319 -0.313 59.7 20.3
67 10 20 -0.256 0.205 -0.349 56.8 21.2
67 11 19 -0.272 0.302 -0.318 53.0 20.6
67 12 18 -0.230 0.442 -0.226 49.3 19.4
67 13 18 -0.160 0.562 -0.140 43.8 20.2
67 14 17 0.028 0.736 0.021 38.6 19.6
67 15 16 0.041 0.807 0.028 32.3 20.4
67 16 17 -0.169 0.729 -0.106 49.7 25.7
68 1 93 0.200 0.533 0.258 79.1 3.0
68 2 94 0.343 0.736 0.488 74.0 5.3
68 3 94 0.458 0.818 0.614 74.2 6.7
68 4 93 0.590 0.785 0.808 79.1 7.9
68 5 93 0.594 0.693 0.821 81.0 9.3
68 6 91 0.603 0.641 0.820 82.6 9.9
68 7 92 0.628 0.620 0.823 80.3 10.1
68 8 93 0.667 0.600 0.914 79.3 10.9
68 9 93 0.684 0.598 1.003 76.4 11.5
68 10 90 0.699 0.586 1.034 74.5 12.6
68 11 89 0.739 0.567 1.151 76.7 12.9
68 12 89 0.696 0.590 1.066 79.2 15.1
68 13 90 0.663 0.649 0.973 80.7 16.3
68 14 90 0.635 0.731 0.935 83.0 17.5
68 15 89 0.628 0.715 0.943 76.9 18.1
68 16 88 0.640 0.679 0.962 74.5 17.9
74 1 4 0.016 1.582 0.050 83.2 8.4
74 2 4 0.325 1.841 0.874 38.8 17.6
74 3 4 0.252 1.102 0.935 27.1 35.1
74 4 4 0.085 1.443 0.326 28.4 52.7
74 5 4 -0.010 1.847 -0.021 23.8 78.2
74 6 4 0.207 1.135 0.374 21.6 110.6
74 7 4 0.428 1.201 1.292 21.0 150.5
74 8 4 0.696 1.228 1.784 19.0 198.2
74 9 4 0.666 1.488 1.094 17.9 245.5
74 10 4 0.824 1.095 0.833 18.6 283.5
74 11 4 0.868 1.310 0.582 18.9 312.2
74 12 4 0.783 1.223 0.469 18.1 342.1
74 13 4 0.856 1.109 0.701 18.1 370.5
82 1 35 -0.033 0.407 -0.083 75.8 5.5
82 2 34 -0.216 0.408 -0.585 72.0 11.0
82 3 32 -0.380 0.421 -0.881 72.8 14.2
82 4 32 -0.273 0.410 -0.685 83.3 16.9
82 5 30 0.028 0.405 0.075 89.9 18.6
82 6 29 0.216 0.488 0.563 90.6 19.0
82 7 30 0.253 0.552 0.655 95.1 16.5
82 8 30 0.428 0.341 0.811 95.2 14.8
82 9 31 0.067 0.151 0.292 102.3 23.3
82 10 31 0.258 0.042 1.007 99.5 22.5
82 11 32 0.241 0.204 0.901 99.2 22.0
82 12 32 0.359 0.120 1.238 103.8 30.8
82 13 32 -0.001 0.051 -0.002 109.4 36.5
82 14 30 -0.207 0.037 -0.637 108.1 37.4
82 15 32 -0.288 0.054 -0.833 109.6 40.8
82 16 33 -0.092 0.083 -0.093 109.4 28.5
83 1 9 0.497 1.012 0.658 97.3 3.3
83 2 10 0.163 1.155 0.271 101.3 6.4
83 3 11 0.017 1.360 0.024 101.1 10.2
83 4 11 -0.052 1.435 -0.066 98.3 8.5
83 5 11 -0.082 1.084 -0.085 90.9 9.5
83 6 11 -0.040 1.083 -0.033 90.8 10.2
83 7 11 0.068 1.029 0.046 90.3 11.8
83 8 11 0.179 0.481 0.108 88.1 16.0
83 9 11 0.246 0.129 0.131 85.5 15.5
83 10 11 0.238 0.438 0.110 86.3 16.7
83 11 11 0.122 0.630 0.053 86.2 19.1
83 12 11 0.008 0.717 0.003 87.5 21.7
83 13 11 0.003 0.712 0.001 91.5 23.3
83 14 11 0.074 0.938 0.017 99.7 28.2
83 15 11 -0.049 0.875 -0.015 102.6 37.0
83 16 10 -0.097 0.735 -0.034 102.7 39.6
84 1 57 0.390 0.699 0.533 71.0 3.2
84 2 51 0.595 0.882 0.876 67.5 5.8
84 3 49 0.717 0.990 1.085 62.5 7.3
84 4 48 0.725 1.245 1.102 59.8 8.6
84 5 48 0.624 1.110 0.982 65.4 10.2
84 6 47 0.470 1.006 0.764 72.4 13.3
84 7 48 0.555 0.973 0.985 74.1 16.0
84 8 47 0.613 0.963 1.103 75.8 17.3
84 9 49 0.530 0.884 0.916 74.4 17.8
84 10 49 0.542 0.897 0.837 71.9 16.1
84 11 49 0.493 0.897 0.688 69.2 17.8
84 12 52 0.409 0.800 0.536 62.2 19.1
84 13 51 0.283 0.666 0.349 63.9 20.6
84 14 48 0.249 0.576 0.290 72.3 20.2
84 15 45 0.213 0.535 0.246 76.3 21.1
84 16 41 0.279 0.527 0.310 77.9 19.3
85 1 6 0.744 1.014 0.908 66.3 2.2
85 2 5 0.862 1.065 1.185 60.4 3.4
85 3 4 0.678 1.956 1.002 71.7 7.5
86 1 7 0.565 0.937 0.934 86.4 3.1
86 2 6 0.657 1.051 1.161 92.4 6.0
86 3 5 0.615 1.117 1.170 70.4 8.1
86 4 4 0.364 1.012 0.609 41.0 13.0
87 1 13 0.574 0.884 0.935 70.5 1.6
87 2 14 0.712 0.900 1.317 83.5 4.1
87 3 15 0.726 0.983 1.149 94.2 4.4
87 4 15 0.645 1.026 1.030 96.2 6.4
87 5 15 0.590 1.086 0.979 96.7 8.5
87 6 15 0.580 1.092 0.868 101.2 10.5
87 7 15 0.501 1.086 0.739 101.9 12.3
87 8 15 0.408 0.939 0.552 101.9 12.4
87 9 15 0.261 0.766 0.335 101.0 13.9
87 10 15 0.104 0.686 0.116 100.1 17.8
87 11 15 0.063 0.607 0.060 98.6 22.9
87 12 15 0.054 0.790 0.047 97.4 28.9
87 13 15 0.075 0.904 0.063 96.3 32.8
87 14 15 0.105 0.841 0.089 101.9 38.9
87 15 15 0.158 0.699 0.152 105.6 36.3
87 16 15 0.167 0.638 0.191 107.3 46.3
98 1 59 0.193 0.757 0.306 58.4 4.2
98 2 53 0.148 0.829 0.175 63.9 7.6
98 3 49 0.195 0.914 0.210 60.7 10.0
98 4 50 0.172 1.016 0.147 57.4 12.0
98 5 53 0.019 1.278 0.016 41.1 14.2
98 6 51 -0.099 1.174 -0.087 37.5 18.0
98 7 49 -0.096 1.021 -0.102 39.3 21.3
98 8 46 -0.087 1.018 -0.090 40.9 24.7
98 9 48 -0.116 0.948 -0.118 42.1 26.3
98 10 54 -0.258 0.818 -0.244 46.5 25.8
98 11 55 -0.398 0.689 -0.408 52.7 26.6
98 12 51 -0.443 0.598 -0.510 61.2 28.4
98 13 48 -0.401 0.487 -0.537 59.9 26.9
98 14 46 -0.323 0.337 -0.413 64.4 28.3
98 15 46 -0.275 0.329 -0.295 68.9 28.7
98 16 45 -0.390 0.421 -0.385 70.6 29.7
100 1 59 0.706 1.282 1.232 49.3 3.0
100 2 58 0.684 1.284 1.216 41.6 5.8
100 3 57 0.732 1.308 1.279 35.5 8.3
100 4 58 0.726 1.392 1.284 43.9 11.5
100 5 58 0.647 1.356 1.240 45.8 15.8
100 6 57 0.591 1.082 1.176 54.5 19.7
100 7 58 0.527 0.986 1.124 57.6 22.2
100 8 60 0.469 0.891 1.004 69.1 23.9
100 9 57 0.485 0.919 1.013 70.3 27.2
100 10 56 0.508 0.781 1.112 75.9 25.1
100 11 54 0.444 0.621 1.012 78.7 27.1
100 12 54 0.424 0.586 1.029 79.0 28.7
100 13 53 0.374 0.533 0.936 80.3 31.0
100 14 51 0.399 0.502 0.930 87.8 27.7
100 15 51 0.299 0.417 0.703 85.5 27.8
100 16 53 0.174 0.339 0.436 88.6 29.1
102 1 9 0.158 0.611 0.129 125.7 5.5
102 2 9 0.193 0.683 0.170 112.6 10.1
102 3 9 0.466 0.837 0.423 106.5 15.3
102 4 9 0.509 0.957 0.518 99.3 21.0
102 5 9 0.321 1.061 0.361 91.1 28.6
102 6 9 0.162 0.874 0.203 84.6 38.1
102 7 9 0.084 0.340 0.123 75.8 50.0
102 8 9 -0.150 0.358 -0.201 77.6 59.2
102 9 9 -0.177 0.348 -0.189 79.3 67.9
102 10 9 -0.354 0.452 -0.291 81.7 77.7
102 11 9 -0.529 0.454 -0.364 83.8 84.4
102 12 9 -0.243 0.529 -0.169 85.4 88.3
102 13 9 -0.121 0.664 -0.089 87.5 89.8
102 14 9 -0.021 0.665 -0.016 90.6 92.3
102 15 9 -0.064 0.559 -0.054 93.9 96.5
102 16 9 0.010 0.551 0.008 95.8 102.3
133 1 61 -0.140 0.206 -0.130 81.7 4.9
133 2 55 -0.146 0.348 -0.115 78.0 8.5
133 3 57 -0.265 0.411 -0.181 68.6 12.5
133 4 61 -0.357 0.339 -0.211 70.8 16.7
133 5 60 -0.369 0.384 -0.206 63.4 20.0
133 6 58 -0.306 0.383 -0.216 63.6 24.6
133 7 56 -0.193 0.503 -0.155 64.5 29.5
133 8 57 -0.176 0.541 -0.161 68.8 31.4
133 9 57 -0.143 0.583 -0.167 75.7 31.0
133 10 56 -0.120 0.541 -0.176 79.2 35.1
133 11 57 -0.106 0.486 -0.172 81.1 37.7
133 12 56 -0.138 0.480 -0.238 79.4 43.0
133 13 56 -0.148 0.503 -0.270 80.7 43.4
133 14 57 -0.168 0.418 -0.304 80.9 44.2
133 15 58 -0.170 0.362 -0.307 80.7 44.0
133 16 43 -0.299 0.284 -0.607 68.9 61.2
134 1 38 0.268 0.520 0.376 73.9 3.2
134 2 35 0.276 0.721 0.373 65.0 4.8
134 3 36 0.218 0.666 0.263 74.1 6.3
134 4 35 0.163 0.503 0.173 82.1 8.5
134 5 35 0.017 0.482 0.015 65.3 11.1
134 6 37 -0.116 0.549 -0.101 51.7 12.8
134 7 36 -0.222 0.696 -0.161 48.7 14.9
134 8 34 -0.052 0.959 -0.036 42.3 15.0
134 9 33 0.024 0.685 0.018 55.2 14.6
134 10 32 0.067 0.524 0.050 65.6 14.8
134 11 31 0.218 0.420 0.159 64.3 15.8
134 12 30 0.317 0.446 0.236 63.9 14.3
134 13 29 0.228 0.469 0.169 64.4 13.3
134 14 29 0.397 0.324 0.238 69.0 10.7
134 15 30 0.282 0.293 0.170 75.5 13.8
134 16 30 0.286 0.404 0.170 72.2 15.1
137 1 38 0.236 0.857 0.378 62.9 4.3
137 2 38 0.276 1.052 0.399 61.3 8.9
137 3 38 0.486 1.227 0.582 57.9 9.0
137 4 38 0.583 1.370 0.595 49.5 9.0
137 5 38 0.497 1.322 0.475 47.1 11.5
137 6 38 0.378 1.232 0.361 47.4 14.0
137 7 38 0.324 1.196 0.332 48.7 14.5
137 8 38 0.225 1.165 0.225 46.8 17.1
137 9 38 0.162 1.112 0.169 44.7 21.5
137 10 38 0.110 1.056 0.127 44.5 24.7
137 11 38 0.067 1.034 0.082 43.8 27.4
137 12 38 0.037 0.976 0.048 46.2 29.3
137 13 37 0.028 0.935 0.037 44.0 34.6
137 14 37 0.060 0.868 0.080 44.2 39.4
137 15 37 0.138 0.862 0.180 45.7 40.7
137 16 37 0.197 0.760 0.252 59.6 38.6


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Last Modified 10 March 2014
Robert Grumbine

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Environmental Modeling Center
W/NP 21, NCWCP
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Jun-2014 16:02:34 UTC