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Ice drift verification for 2000

Statistics for all months of 2000 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
755 1 0.258 0.477 0.384 77.9 4.4
723 2 0.271 0.523 0.384 77.6 8.2
713 3 0.265 0.496 0.369 80.1 11.2
698 4 0.257 0.468 0.339 82.6 13.6
690 5 0.226 0.453 0.283 82.9 15.1
686 6 0.182 0.437 0.222 83.3 16.8
682 7 0.163 0.427 0.189 81.8 18.7
678 8 0.115 0.384 0.122 82.2 20.2
679 9 0.067 0.334 0.070 83.0 22.3
685 10 0.031 0.294 0.033 84.0 24.0
684 11 -0.003 0.266 -0.003 84.7 25.2
685 12 -0.005 0.244 -0.006 85.1 26.0
685 13 -0.013 0.220 -0.013 86.3 28.2
688 14 -0.009 0.216 -0.009 86.7 29.8
687 15 -0.009 0.196 -0.009 86.8 30.3
631 16 0.042 0.216 0.041 83.3 31.9

Forecasts at all lead times, scored by month for year 2000

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
842 1 0.233 0.322 0.154 83.3 18.1
655 2 0.334 0.506 0.220 89.8 28.3
349 3 0.543 0.809 0.359 75.1 25.4
578 4 0.690 0.630 0.759 71.5 11.1
197 5 0.422 0.368 0.512 95.6 12.0
695 6 0.741 0.449 1.489 69.9 16.9
1604 7 0.227 0.288 0.372 76.5 25.7
2220 8 0.518 0.144 0.806 93.1 19.3
1784 9 0.604 0.564 0.893 74.4 20.8
1152 10 0.309 0.517 0.346 90.0 18.0
356 11 0.367 0.247 0.532 92.3 14.0
621 12 0.577 0.427 0.433 79.5 20.7

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Lead Observations Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
57 1 30 0.162 0.625 0.207 78.5 3.5
57 2 29 0.093 0.783 0.113 75.2 6.9
57 3 28 0.095 0.953 0.117 81.1 9.5
57 4 27 0.251 0.916 0.310 91.5 9.1
57 5 26 0.375 0.732 0.418 97.6 10.0
57 6 25 0.405 0.726 0.408 106.9 11.9
57 7 24 0.289 0.640 0.276 100.9 13.0
57 8 23 0.102 0.523 0.081 96.8 9.5
57 9 22 -0.060 0.446 -0.042 98.4 12.6
57 10 21 -0.258 0.303 -0.194 95.3 13.9
57 11 21 -0.383 0.246 -0.309 94.0 14.9
57 12 21 -0.381 0.186 -0.289 94.6 14.6
57 13 21 -0.408 0.180 -0.315 94.4 14.8
57 14 21 -0.444 0.154 -0.340 105.1 15.5
57 15 22 -0.288 0.188 -0.231 107.0 18.4
57 16 22 -0.477 0.094 -0.601 118.4 24.0
66 1 22 0.354 0.320 0.288 75.5 4.5
66 2 19 0.319 0.680 0.318 64.3 8.6
66 3 18 0.209 0.440 0.245 59.0 12.6
66 4 17 0.367 0.560 0.431 50.2 16.2
66 5 15 0.276 0.487 0.346 51.4 18.4
66 6 13 0.244 0.576 0.278 54.7 18.2
66 7 11 0.370 0.591 0.359 57.7 13.8
66 8 11 0.194 0.677 0.109 58.5 12.6
66 9 11 0.138 0.653 0.057 62.4 15.0
66 10 12 0.154 0.842 0.059 67.8 16.4
66 11 13 0.231 0.930 0.083 71.0 15.8
66 12 14 -0.079 0.857 -0.037 76.7 16.2
66 13 15 -0.406 0.786 -0.214 78.2 19.0
66 14 16 -0.143 0.577 -0.060 77.7 17.6
66 15 17 0.032 0.538 0.010 82.4 16.5
66 16 19 0.057 0.370 0.016 81.4 15.7
67 1 41 0.116 0.743 0.183 68.6 5.0
67 2 38 0.122 0.844 0.194 74.2 8.9
67 3 37 0.173 1.033 0.263 63.2 11.4
67 4 35 0.267 1.220 0.386 75.1 12.9
67 5 34 0.333 1.255 0.434 76.2 13.2
67 6 35 0.234 1.293 0.264 78.9 15.1
67 7 37 0.122 1.254 0.135 84.4 18.7
67 8 37 -0.027 1.026 -0.030 89.8 20.5
67 9 36 -0.147 0.940 -0.175 93.6 22.5
67 10 38 -0.350 0.876 -0.423 91.0 25.5
67 11 37 -0.428 0.666 -0.494 98.2 23.7
67 12 38 -0.387 0.493 -0.363 108.3 22.7
67 13 39 -0.343 0.430 -0.267 115.1 24.0
67 14 40 -0.476 0.422 -0.329 119.9 30.9
67 15 38 -0.479 0.371 -0.306 115.6 30.2
67 16 18 -0.440 0.473 -0.511 96.6 16.3
68 1 93 0.432 0.859 0.557 63.7 2.4
68 2 93 0.419 0.938 0.576 63.3 4.4
68 3 96 0.380 0.869 0.524 66.2 6.0
68 4 94 0.390 0.819 0.546 64.9 6.8
68 5 93 0.382 0.767 0.508 66.9 8.1
68 6 93 0.462 0.727 0.602 77.2 8.3
68 7 92 0.488 0.686 0.618 81.1 9.1
68 8 95 0.494 0.632 0.649 81.5 10.0
68 9 94 0.526 0.598 0.719 80.6 11.0
68 10 94 0.534 0.585 0.775 83.4 12.3
68 11 94 0.495 0.545 0.738 85.4 13.4
68 12 94 0.477 0.487 0.722 86.7 14.5
68 13 96 0.381 0.451 0.590 89.7 17.1
68 14 96 0.305 0.426 0.474 88.7 18.9
68 15 94 0.239 0.401 0.374 90.4 21.2
68 16 83 0.209 0.396 0.305 90.8 24.6
83 1 80 0.105 0.818 0.146 66.1 5.0
83 2 75 0.118 0.979 0.155 64.7 8.2
83 3 73 0.134 1.023 0.165 67.6 10.0
83 4 72 0.098 0.956 0.112 74.5 12.0
83 5 72 0.026 0.871 0.027 78.1 11.4
83 6 71 -0.036 0.810 -0.039 78.5 12.0
83 7 71 -0.161 0.659 -0.160 82.0 15.2
83 8 71 -0.180 0.580 -0.179 88.0 16.8
83 9 70 -0.207 0.533 -0.191 90.9 19.2
83 10 73 -0.280 0.506 -0.273 91.6 22.1
83 11 75 -0.292 0.447 -0.289 93.3 24.5
83 12 74 -0.229 0.461 -0.214 97.1 23.9
83 13 74 -0.222 0.555 -0.198 101.8 28.4
83 14 73 -0.207 0.554 -0.181 103.2 32.1
83 15 73 -0.175 0.515 -0.157 104.7 31.3
83 16 57 -0.067 0.412 -0.067 100.4 33.3
86 1 15 0.294 0.622 0.303 87.4 2.4
86 2 15 -0.003 1.008 -0.004 82.7 5.0
86 3 15 0.093 1.383 0.155 83.4 6.8
86 4 15 0.089 1.419 0.131 79.7 8.3
86 5 15 0.029 1.218 0.046 81.6 10.0
86 6 15 -0.143 0.980 -0.227 83.2 13.2
86 7 15 -0.281 0.825 -0.402 69.5 18.0
86 8 15 -0.320 0.983 -0.438 63.8 17.6
86 9 15 -0.240 0.925 -0.284 62.7 19.0
86 10 15 -0.328 0.740 -0.319 66.5 22.3
86 11 15 -0.532 0.683 -0.453 65.8 19.9
86 12 15 -0.584 0.675 -0.513 62.7 19.3
86 13 15 -0.589 0.644 -0.497 59.9 19.9
86 14 15 -0.546 0.632 -0.438 58.0 21.8
86 15 15 -0.455 0.730 -0.343 58.2 18.5
86 16 15 -0.318 0.761 -0.215 60.9 15.2
98 1 88 0.322 0.649 0.465 80.2 4.3
98 2 88 0.363 0.820 0.471 76.3 8.5
98 3 90 0.330 0.840 0.381 79.5 12.4
98 4 91 0.278 0.851 0.283 82.0 15.8
98 5 91 0.258 0.875 0.266 83.9 18.5
98 6 91 0.227 0.811 0.230 76.8 19.9
98 7 92 0.157 0.729 0.153 74.4 22.5
98 8 91 0.097 0.675 0.086 76.8 25.4
98 9 92 0.026 0.612 0.021 79.4 28.4
98 10 90 0.018 0.537 0.013 81.3 29.8
98 11 88 0.012 0.494 0.008 81.5 32.0
98 12 88 0.068 0.466 0.045 84.7 33.4
98 13 88 0.127 0.444 0.084 85.8 34.0
98 14 89 0.162 0.403 0.106 87.0 35.0
98 15 88 0.207 0.335 0.136 89.8 35.3
98 16 88 0.302 0.435 0.180 81.2 34.1
99 1 12 0.833 0.987 2.288 72.8 5.0
99 2 11 0.818 1.208 2.385 86.6 12.6
99 3 10 0.935 1.392 4.119 91.2 19.7
99 4 9 0.438 1.197 2.092 91.1 23.0
99 5 8 0.403 1.373 2.714 103.3 21.1
99 6 7 -0.117 1.250 -0.574 106.0 29.7
99 7 6 -0.327 0.842 -0.763 105.5 39.3
99 8 6 -0.646 1.671 -1.297 100.0 47.9
99 9 6 -0.709 0.886 -1.416 101.0 66.3
99 10 6 -0.777 0.944 -0.618 103.6 73.5
99 11 6 -0.312 0.900 -0.196 101.1 79.4
99 12 6 -0.128 1.127 -0.114 98.6 79.9
99 13 6 -0.202 0.929 -0.247 89.1 85.3
99 14 6 0.297 0.696 0.331 89.6 77.7
99 15 7 -0.128 0.754 -0.186 81.8 46.3
99 16 8 0.276 0.752 0.177 99.8 50.5
100 1 21 0.597 0.754 1.586 68.3 5.5
100 2 18 0.687 0.926 1.815 70.7 8.2
100 3 17 0.529 0.986 1.228 67.9 9.6
100 4 16 0.105 0.706 0.165 68.0 12.7
100 5 15 -0.172 0.818 -0.236 76.0 15.5
100 6 17 -0.561 0.866 -0.854 74.4 22.9
100 7 18 -0.494 0.697 -0.807 64.9 23.2
100 8 15 -0.177 0.698 -0.229 66.1 24.1
100 9 15 0.035 0.747 0.033 71.0 22.1
100 10 17 0.169 0.763 0.164 84.7 27.5
100 11 18 0.036 0.755 0.030 85.3 31.7
100 12 18 -0.018 0.793 -0.011 78.5 28.7
100 13 17 -0.030 0.791 -0.017 86.5 22.8
100 14 17 -0.131 0.832 -0.075 86.7 20.0
100 15 18 -0.033 0.853 -0.018 93.8 16.9
100 16 16 -0.165 0.887 -0.115 92.2 18.9
102 1 50 0.642 1.235 1.245 50.6 2.9
102 2 47 0.637 1.367 1.161 44.7 5.4
102 3 44 0.645 1.464 1.036 45.1 7.1
102 4 41 0.670 1.457 0.967 66.9 8.7
102 5 39 0.702 1.282 1.024 68.2 10.2
102 6 38 0.672 0.969 0.990 76.9 10.2
102 7 37 0.519 0.635 0.616 79.2 10.7
102 8 37 0.328 0.482 0.306 86.1 11.0
102 9 36 0.120 0.380 0.107 99.0 15.0
102 10 35 0.074 0.192 0.057 103.9 16.6
102 11 34 -0.005 0.273 -0.003 108.1 16.4
102 12 33 0.196 0.379 0.139 103.6 16.9
102 13 32 0.145 0.363 0.102 105.7 14.5
102 14 31 0.050 0.249 0.034 109.6 17.5
102 15 30 0.109 0.120 0.064 107.7 17.8
102 16 29 0.036 0.148 0.017 109.4 17.5
103 1 206 0.066 nan 0.112 98.8 5.5
103 2 203 0.151 nan 0.252 99.4 10.3
103 3 200 0.176 nan 0.300 103.1 14.6
103 4 196 0.269 nan 0.451 104.6 17.1
103 5 194 0.271 nan 0.445 101.0 19.2
103 6 193 0.296 nan 0.470 97.2 21.4
103 7 192 0.352 nan 0.515 92.7 23.3
103 8 193 0.305 nan 0.431 88.8 25.4
103 9 195 0.269 nan 0.421 84.7 27.3
103 10 198 0.234 nan 0.395 82.1 28.1
103 11 199 0.163 nan 0.294 78.9 29.9
103 12 197 0.118 nan 0.216 76.0 31.3
103 13 194 0.100 nan 0.175 73.4 33.0
103 14 196 0.068 nan 0.116 69.0 34.6
103 15 196 0.070 nan 0.117 66.0 35.3
103 16 197 0.052 nan 0.081 63.4 38.1
117 1 5 0.150 0.986 0.329 33.9 5.7
117 2 4 0.445 1.049 0.385 26.6 11.9
117 3 4 0.209 1.049 0.295 31.7 15.9
117 9 4 0.284 1.004 0.424 54.9 28.9
117 10 4 -0.367 1.123 -0.520 54.3 30.8
117 11 5 -0.331 0.496 -0.350 57.4 26.6
117 12 6 0.231 0.638 0.223 62.2 27.3
117 13 6 0.001 0.786 0.001 75.4 29.7
117 14 6 0.046 0.330 0.031 85.2 38.9
117 15 6 0.284 0.486 0.222 95.2 42.0
117 16 6 0.368 0.560 0.298 102.6 42.4
118 1 60 0.486 0.775 0.735 65.6 3.5
118 2 55 0.441 0.979 0.663 62.1 7.2
118 3 52 0.466 1.098 0.774 65.8 10.1
118 4 53 0.410 1.174 0.748 60.9 13.6
118 5 58 0.323 1.177 0.615 63.4 16.3
118 6 58 0.288 1.130 0.524 69.0 19.0
118 7 58 0.260 1.101 0.464 62.0 20.8
118 8 57 0.180 0.946 0.316 61.9 22.4
118 9 56 0.108 0.850 0.175 66.4 24.5
118 10 55 0.096 0.735 0.167 70.6 25.6
118 11 55 0.157 0.669 0.277 71.6 24.7
118 12 56 0.152 0.642 0.258 70.8 26.4
118 13 55 0.121 0.652 0.174 69.8 30.6
118 14 54 0.099 0.626 0.143 73.7 32.0
118 15 55 0.138 0.597 0.205 76.1 33.5
118 16 44 0.054 0.735 0.088 69.2 31.5
134 1 13 0.467 0.863 1.250 48.5 3.7
134 2 10 0.434 1.032 1.520 41.5 6.9
134 3 9 0.498 1.120 2.066 40.5 8.7
134 4 9 0.506 1.599 1.401 43.7 9.7
134 5 9 -0.549 1.523 -2.440 50.7 14.5
134 6 9 -0.614 1.694 -1.936 54.0 16.8
134 7 8 -0.307 0.866 -0.792 64.3 19.8
134 8 5 -0.950 1.762 -0.383 77.3 27.8
134 9 7 -0.160 1.084 -0.096 81.9 17.8
134 10 8 -0.249 0.714 -0.362 101.3 18.4
134 11 7 -0.500 0.587 -0.201 126.1 26.6
134 12 7 -0.451 0.912 -0.184 122.0 27.9
134 13 6 -0.606 0.976 -0.807 115.9 29.0
134 14 8 -0.159 0.676 -0.282 100.5 29.0
134 15 9 -0.250 0.719 -0.327 118.8 45.7
134 16 9 -0.440 0.391 -0.556 127.9 50.2


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Last Modified 10 March 2014
Robert Grumbine

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Environmental Modeling Center
W/NP 21, NCWCP
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Jun-2014 16:02:31 UTC