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Ice drift verification for 1999

Statistics for all months of 1999 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
490 1 0.205 0.435 0.357 75.3 3.6
488 2 0.186 0.505 0.309 74.0 6.4
485 3 0.175 0.535 0.272 72.6 8.8
484 4 0.223 0.568 0.320 73.1 10.5
478 5 0.235 0.550 0.339 76.2 12.2
474 6 0.226 0.526 0.346 76.3 13.4
469 7 0.170 0.467 0.269 77.0 16.1
471 8 0.141 0.403 0.227 81.2 18.4
472 9 0.084 0.347 0.135 82.3 20.8
467 10 0.040 0.292 0.062 84.1 23.0
470 11 0.081 0.181 0.133 88.5 23.5
473 12 0.087 0.154 0.135 90.2 24.0
466 13 0.083 0.147 0.117 89.2 24.8
465 14 0.074 0.132 0.098 88.7 26.0
458 15 0.055 0.121 0.068 87.6 26.6
439 16 0.024 0.042 0.032 96.2 25.1

Forecasts at all lead times, scored by month for year 1999

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
469 1 0.177 0.152 0.103 97.8 13.4
420 2 0.281 0.122 0.095 88.5 18.0
138 3 0.749 0.833 0.501 87.3 8.7
585 4 0.468 0.485 0.418 64.2 20.8
1210 5 0.564 0.558 0.428 62.3 11.9
1154 6 0.128 0.282 0.304 79.5 24.6
890 7 0.538 0.323 0.807 79.9 17.0
251 8 0.293 0.615 0.218 84.2 19.4
342 9 0.495 0.362 0.488 104.9 18.6
214 10 0.333 0.580 0.609 68.7 20.4
1097 11 0.359 0.298 0.364 96.2 14.2
783 12 0.446 0.507 0.579 82.3 20.6

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Lead Observations Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
67 1 59 0.229 0.509 0.252 80.6 2.7
67 2 61 0.225 0.610 0.229 77.4 4.7
67 3 61 0.213 0.533 0.208 72.7 6.1
67 4 61 0.305 0.666 0.274 73.3 7.1
67 5 62 0.403 0.814 0.335 72.1 9.9
67 6 61 0.404 0.834 0.319 75.4 11.7
67 7 58 0.350 0.759 0.275 73.3 13.6
67 8 60 0.431 0.785 0.357 82.9 16.7
67 9 60 0.409 0.780 0.349 86.6 20.3
67 10 58 0.342 0.717 0.299 85.3 22.8
67 11 59 0.448 1.024 0.411 85.3 18.5
67 12 61 0.446 0.986 0.385 90.8 19.9
67 13 60 0.456 0.915 0.368 87.3 19.9
67 14 59 0.442 0.870 0.344 87.0 19.8
67 15 59 0.418 0.985 0.316 87.2 20.2
67 16 58 -inf nan nan 134.8 21.9
68 1 39 0.306 0.878 0.430 51.3 3.5
68 2 41 0.317 0.898 0.410 62.0 5.8
68 3 41 0.413 0.800 0.481 66.2 6.7
68 4 41 0.483 0.700 0.536 65.0 7.2
68 5 41 0.405 0.660 0.430 67.2 9.0
68 6 41 0.214 0.596 0.251 64.7 12.3
68 7 41 0.169 0.507 0.211 64.7 14.6
68 8 41 0.168 0.398 0.214 70.8 15.8
68 9 41 0.153 0.300 0.198 76.4 17.5
68 10 41 0.119 0.253 0.160 73.8 18.6
68 11 41 0.076 0.211 0.104 73.1 21.0
68 12 41 0.006 0.179 0.008 83.0 23.4
68 13 39 -0.012 0.185 -0.017 84.1 23.2
68 14 40 -0.078 0.244 -0.114 81.3 24.2
68 15 39 -0.069 0.269 -0.104 81.6 24.8
68 16 38 -0.063 0.221 -0.091 87.1 26.2
73 1 16 -0.093 0.084 -0.486 108.5 10.6
73 2 14 0.195 0.512 1.274 116.2 21.0
73 3 12 0.373 0.554 3.521 119.4 28.8
73 4 9 0.408 0.490 3.093 122.9 37.0
73 5 7 -0.169 0.865 -1.779 121.3 50.1
73 6 7 0.758 1.006 16.271 119.8 27.2
73 7 6 0.898 1.052 18.457 108.4 77.8
73 8 6 0.224 0.614 4.086 80.7 150.7
73 9 6 0.296 1.250 4.671 79.6 170.4
73 10 5 0.027 1.218 0.350 25.8 215.3
73 11 4 0.734 1.552 0.323 21.5 291.5
81 1 41 0.312 0.879 0.497 79.7 4.3
81 2 40 0.313 0.945 0.402 74.6 6.3
81 3 39 0.256 0.949 0.271 72.2 9.4
81 4 37 0.211 0.885 0.199 66.9 11.5
81 5 36 0.283 0.772 0.259 73.5 13.3
81 6 36 0.516 0.742 0.517 74.1 13.5
81 7 37 0.382 0.691 0.380 75.8 15.6
81 8 38 0.320 0.675 0.315 77.4 17.1
81 9 39 0.119 0.536 0.100 73.4 20.6
81 10 42 0.004 0.352 0.004 75.7 25.4
81 11 44 -0.069 0.222 -0.055 76.5 26.8
81 12 45 -0.102 0.153 -0.083 74.9 28.9
81 13 45 -0.151 0.152 -0.127 73.5 32.5
81 14 45 -0.215 0.179 -0.191 74.8 36.4
81 15 44 -0.218 0.224 -0.206 76.1 36.3
81 16 43 -0.256 0.266 -0.256 75.6 37.6
83 1 163 0.340 0.506 0.393 79.9 2.8
83 2 166 0.275 0.622 0.337 80.8 5.3
83 3 164 0.204 0.673 0.245 78.3 7.4
83 4 164 0.146 0.689 0.176 78.9 9.6
83 5 165 0.208 0.738 0.266 83.1 11.7
83 6 165 0.190 0.739 0.252 83.7 12.5
83 7 164 0.098 0.662 0.134 84.5 14.8
83 8 163 0.078 0.580 0.104 88.7 16.0
83 9 164 0.043 0.479 0.056 91.2 18.5
83 10 161 -0.002 0.391 -0.002 95.2 21.0
83 11 159 0.031 0.300 0.043 99.0 21.6
83 12 159 0.080 0.265 0.110 99.7 23.0
83 13 158 0.108 0.230 0.149 98.4 24.5
83 14 160 0.095 0.189 0.126 98.4 26.7
83 15 160 0.091 0.189 0.116 94.4 27.0
83 16 145 -0.009 0.128 -0.012 93.5 21.7
98 1 22 0.559 0.956 0.993 72.7 5.9
98 2 21 0.349 0.835 0.476 69.8 11.8
98 3 21 0.467 0.937 0.575 81.0 15.7
98 4 21 0.516 0.990 0.525 82.5 17.5
98 5 21 0.582 0.757 0.501 85.7 20.5
98 6 21 0.615 0.716 0.477 82.2 20.3
98 7 21 0.455 0.775 0.307 93.6 22.5
98 8 21 0.064 0.767 0.039 99.7 25.8
98 9 21 -0.272 0.700 -0.143 102.0 30.7
98 10 21 -0.506 0.666 -0.262 105.4 31.2
98 11 21 -0.465 0.484 -0.274 115.8 32.3
98 12 21 -0.493 0.415 -0.313 120.9 30.6
98 13 21 -0.570 0.380 -0.366 125.4 30.8
98 14 21 -0.649 0.405 -0.457 130.7 34.8
98 15 21 -0.620 0.490 -0.468 134.3 38.0
98 16 21 -0.568 0.522 -0.441 139.0 35.8
99 1 29 0.499 0.780 0.708 61.7 2.1
99 2 29 0.546 0.828 0.641 56.0 4.1
99 3 29 0.492 0.866 0.565 66.0 5.1
99 4 29 0.370 0.896 0.450 67.2 7.0
99 5 27 0.345 0.761 0.360 76.0 7.6
99 6 27 0.241 0.675 0.274 86.2 10.1
99 7 27 0.213 0.475 0.253 88.5 11.8
99 8 26 0.091 0.472 0.107 83.5 11.7
99 9 25 0.036 0.519 0.040 75.8 10.1
99 10 24 0.170 0.545 0.175 76.3 8.8
99 11 24 0.194 0.528 0.177 78.3 9.3
99 12 23 0.147 0.380 0.112 78.1 10.6
99 13 23 -0.292 0.200 -0.243 79.5 17.4
99 14 23 -0.396 0.113 -0.377 74.3 19.1
99 15 23 -0.486 0.078 -0.493 84.1 23.0
99 16 23 -0.480 0.122 -0.540 84.9 22.7
101 1 22 0.344 0.990 0.662 75.8 3.3
101 2 22 0.455 1.313 0.816 72.9 6.3
101 3 22 0.412 1.381 0.714 65.2 8.9
101 4 22 0.350 1.364 0.664 62.3 10.4
101 5 21 0.364 1.328 0.796 64.2 13.0
101 6 20 0.449 1.102 1.001 66.4 14.9
101 7 20 0.434 0.937 0.879 70.5 15.9
101 8 20 0.159 0.790 0.255 72.1 17.9
101 9 20 0.056 0.833 0.076 71.7 16.9
101 10 20 -0.046 0.841 -0.049 70.9 17.8
101 11 20 -0.091 0.494 -0.088 87.2 19.7
101 12 21 -0.229 0.553 -0.170 90.6 19.3
101 13 22 -0.443 0.610 -0.244 93.9 20.3
101 14 21 -0.448 0.990 -0.251 92.7 23.3
101 15 20 -0.463 0.992 -0.290 88.5 24.9
101 16 19 -0.447 0.957 -0.290 88.1 25.4
116 1 5 0.239 1.086 0.473 90.2 3.2
116 2 5 0.051 0.936 0.071 78.2 1.5
116 3 5 0.092 0.836 0.089 98.1 6.2
116 4 5 -0.134 0.545 -0.070 97.3 4.6
116 5 4 -0.618 1.041 -0.532 136.7 9.9
116 6 4 -0.974 1.160 -1.383 109.3 9.4
116 7 5 -0.940 1.094 -1.706 102.9 15.7
116 11 4 -0.967 1.337 -1.827 150.1 19.8
117 1 17 0.746 1.193 1.001 75.0 2.3
117 2 12 0.699 1.187 0.885 70.1 5.1
117 3 12 0.582 1.422 0.831 58.7 8.2
117 4 16 0.599 1.186 0.724 66.4 8.6
117 5 15 0.456 0.898 0.350 59.8 9.7
117 6 12 0.598 0.993 0.371 59.7 9.7
117 7 12 0.802 0.949 0.581 60.6 9.1
117 8 15 0.685 1.043 0.608 72.9 12.8
117 9 17 0.360 0.892 0.298 69.0 16.4
117 10 16 0.365 0.676 0.279 74.9 14.4
117 11 15 0.368 0.692 0.305 69.1 13.0
117 12 17 0.275 0.521 0.241 61.1 12.8
117 13 17 0.256 0.528 0.156 61.0 17.7
117 14 16 0.518 0.611 0.352 56.4 17.5
117 15 15 0.422 0.832 0.341 55.9 20.2
117 16 15 0.393 0.584 0.263 56.4 27.4
118 1 23 0.745 0.804 0.914 62.1 2.5
118 2 23 0.650 0.992 0.903 53.4 4.9
118 3 23 0.563 0.984 0.813 45.1 7.0
118 4 23 0.677 1.058 1.005 51.2 6.8
118 5 23 0.755 1.055 1.017 57.6 7.0
118 6 23 0.710 0.817 0.924 64.8 8.7
118 7 23 0.588 0.602 0.727 71.9 10.3
118 8 23 0.456 0.491 0.547 73.0 12.8
118 9 22 0.383 0.389 0.412 63.7 13.8
118 10 23 0.257 0.300 0.277 77.0 18.6
118 11 23 0.212 0.259 0.225 72.4 19.3
118 12 23 0.285 0.343 0.293 68.0 18.3
118 13 23 0.381 0.360 0.386 66.4 16.1
118 14 23 0.339 0.348 0.328 64.4 16.9
118 15 23 0.254 0.239 0.242 64.2 19.5
118 16 23 0.236 0.121 0.222 68.7 20.8
134 1 41 0.142 0.843 0.239 68.8 4.2
134 2 41 0.336 0.903 0.659 61.1 7.2
134 3 43 0.339 0.788 0.777 58.2 11.4
134 4 43 0.543 0.658 1.400 68.1 13.4
134 5 42 0.606 0.636 1.383 68.6 12.8
134 6 43 0.503 0.521 0.944 58.9 14.5
134 7 42 0.354 0.304 0.595 52.0 16.4
134 8 42 0.306 0.195 0.489 56.8 16.4
134 9 41 0.236 0.099 0.349 55.4 15.7
134 10 41 0.083 0.044 0.132 62.9 15.7
134 11 43 0.371 0.364 0.642 78.5 17.4
134 12 44 0.316 0.428 0.628 80.8 18.0
134 13 42 0.252 0.401 0.522 75.0 18.2
134 14 42 0.176 0.360 0.342 70.4 16.8
134 15 42 0.068 0.418 0.119 67.8 20.0
134 16 42 0.098 0.386 0.144 66.2 21.4


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Last Modified 10 March 2014
Robert Grumbine

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Environmental Modeling Center
W/NP 21, NCWCP
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Jun-2014 16:02:28 UTC