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Ice drift verification for 1998

Statistics for all months of 1998 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
205 1 0.175 0.483 0.357 72.1 5.2
206 2 0.222 0.619 0.472 69.8 9.2
207 3 0.168 0.668 0.329 66.2 13.6
209 4 0.138 0.681 0.260 67.2 17.0
208 5 0.137 0.637 0.250 70.8 19.4
208 6 0.143 0.604 0.255 72.5 20.5
207 7 0.143 0.599 0.238 72.2 22.6
205 8 0.176 0.593 0.284 74.0 23.6
205 9 0.188 0.555 0.312 74.1 24.2
206 10 0.183 0.498 0.309 75.9 25.0
203 11 0.154 0.423 0.261 80.4 25.3
204 12 0.138 0.347 0.226 84.6 25.4
205 13 0.077 0.307 0.125 85.3 27.9
205 14 0.003 0.276 0.005 84.9 31.7
201 15 -0.038 0.252 -0.061 86.8 34.5
182 16 -0.109 0.261 -0.184 91.6 37.1

Forecasts at all lead times, scored by month for year 1998

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
-1 1 NA NA NA NA NA
-1 2 NA NA NA NA NA
-1 3 NA NA NA NA NA
-1 4 NA NA NA NA NA
-1 5 NA NA NA NA NA
217 6 0.545 0.440 0.594 75.4 14.3
47 7 0.266 0.213 0.127 58.2 19.1
247 8 0.535 0.572 1.081 78.4 47.1
476 9 0.685 0.505 1.618 93.0 25.3
537 10 0.404 0.289 0.417 74.5 14.7
973 11 0.344 0.572 0.525 81.4 23.9
778 12 0.186 0.632 0.216 62.8 18.5

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Lead Observations Scalar correlation Vector correlation b1 RMS Direction Mean Error Radius
83 1 47 0.290 0.855 0.455 68.1 5.3
83 2 49 0.236 0.975 0.344 69.3 10.4
83 3 49 0.172 0.974 0.229 65.5 15.2
83 4 50 0.115 0.915 0.150 70.1 19.6
83 5 49 0.115 0.804 0.157 80.6 22.8
83 6 49 0.142 0.710 0.198 85.7 22.9
83 7 49 0.167 0.702 0.212 81.5 23.3
83 8 49 0.219 0.690 0.252 79.9 21.8
83 9 49 0.273 0.648 0.297 79.2 20.1
83 10 49 0.294 0.593 0.306 82.1 19.5
83 11 49 0.241 0.527 0.238 86.6 20.4
83 12 49 0.198 0.459 0.183 91.4 20.9
83 13 49 0.174 0.466 0.158 93.4 23.2
83 14 48 0.182 0.505 0.159 95.0 25.3
83 15 49 0.092 0.548 0.086 96.3 29.6
83 16 44 0.112 0.655 0.117 100.6 29.6
97 1 4 -0.691 1.001 -0.668 117.7 9.0
97 2 4 -0.857 1.026 -0.808 109.4 14.8
97 3 4 -0.056 1.024 -0.085 99.9 20.1
97 4 4 0.538 1.180 0.539 82.2 22.7
97 5 4 0.540 1.099 1.085 78.6 21.7
97 6 4 -0.241 1.001 -0.320 58.2 18.6
97 7 4 0.153 1.041 0.234 45.6 26.0
97 14 4 0.496 1.807 0.169 60.7 26.1
99 1 63 0.266 0.504 0.438 68.9 4.8
99 2 62 0.355 0.697 0.614 71.1 8.1
99 3 62 0.390 0.849 0.644 68.8 11.6
99 4 62 0.451 0.918 0.682 67.2 13.5
99 5 62 0.462 0.995 0.605 70.0 14.8
99 6 62 0.396 0.990 0.452 72.4 14.5
99 7 62 0.319 1.001 0.341 75.0 17.8
99 8 62 0.280 1.001 0.280 75.5 18.0
99 9 62 0.206 0.914 0.199 70.5 16.3
99 10 62 0.116 0.886 0.104 71.0 16.4
99 11 62 0.077 0.875 0.069 74.5 17.6
99 12 62 0.035 0.829 0.032 75.7 18.4
99 13 62 -0.063 0.855 -0.056 76.6 22.1
99 14 61 -0.057 0.915 -0.050 75.2 25.2
99 15 60 -0.040 0.907 -0.034 78.0 24.3
99 16 60 -0.097 0.850 -0.083 83.5 25.5
104 1 9 0.831 1.189 1.354 75.3 2.3
104 2 9 0.908 1.031 1.531 64.5 4.3
104 3 9 0.892 0.977 1.908 56.0 7.3
104 4 9 0.932 0.971 2.326 57.5 10.2
104 5 9 0.822 0.964 2.478 61.6 13.3
104 6 9 0.455 0.985 1.278 71.7 16.5
104 7 9 -0.597 0.902 -1.478 64.1 19.1
104 8 8 -0.241 1.368 -0.298 53.5 19.4
104 9 8 -0.126 1.031 -0.123 82.9 21.4
104 10 8 0.158 0.896 0.114 82.5 16.3
104 11 7 0.345 0.825 0.174 85.1 12.8
104 12 8 0.160 0.770 0.063 88.2 8.2
104 13 8 0.437 0.722 0.194 97.7 8.7
104 14 9 0.220 0.675 0.111 94.7 8.6
104 15 8 0.292 0.869 0.115 97.8 9.1
104 16 8 -0.212 0.864 -0.052 93.6 12.9
133 1 12 0.231 0.431 1.182 75.2 6.8
133 2 12 0.334 0.333 1.865 95.2 9.3
133 3 12 0.019 0.710 0.077 79.2 13.4
133 4 12 0.361 0.780 1.037 78.7 15.1
133 5 12 0.506 0.692 1.048 68.4 15.5
133 6 12 0.555 0.761 1.016 45.4 18.4
133 7 11 0.919 1.394 1.271 49.2 14.5
133 8 11 0.917 1.459 1.314 49.5 22.2
133 9 11 0.728 1.250 1.528 52.2 34.7
133 10 11 0.620 0.822 1.458 57.9 47.7
133 11 10 0.630 0.783 1.547 49.5 41.6
133 12 10 0.496 0.846 1.032 73.5 51.8
133 13 9 -0.121 0.865 -0.306 67.9 65.2
133 14 9 -0.416 0.933 -1.108 70.3 82.5
133 15 9 -0.583 1.129 -1.417 59.7 102.3
133 16 9 -0.432 1.182 -0.804 90.7 97.8
134 1 16 0.126 0.689 0.274 70.7 4.1
134 2 16 0.085 0.808 0.179 60.4 6.7
134 3 16 0.029 0.849 0.064 56.3 10.9
134 4 16 -0.112 0.893 -0.276 55.9 15.6
134 5 16 -0.216 0.930 -0.595 54.8 20.2
134 6 16 -0.352 0.950 -1.082 55.7 23.9
134 7 16 -0.501 0.943 -1.611 56.5 26.5
134 8 16 -0.627 0.915 -1.707 58.0 30.6
134 9 16 -0.700 1.021 -1.706 61.9 32.8
134 10 16 -0.692 1.149 -1.530 67.2 30.6
134 11 16 -0.708 1.055 -1.736 79.4 29.6
134 12 16 -0.680 0.890 -1.677 84.2 28.8
134 13 16 -0.580 0.663 -1.452 88.8 29.4
134 14 16 -0.420 0.584 -1.009 95.1 31.8
134 15 16 -0.229 0.450 -0.470 100.4 33.1
134 16 16 -0.075 0.362 -0.140 103.6 35.3
135 1 38 0.641 0.883 0.793 65.4 3.6
135 2 37 0.672 1.082 0.746 54.3 5.6
135 3 38 0.572 1.030 0.596 55.7 8.0
135 4 39 0.540 1.125 0.554 62.9 10.5
135 5 39 0.572 1.101 0.579 66.4 11.3
135 6 39 0.611 1.006 0.683 67.0 12.1
135 7 39 0.577 0.955 0.694 68.7 13.4
135 8 39 0.604 0.837 0.780 76.2 13.1
135 9 40 0.642 0.725 0.822 77.6 13.1
135 10 41 0.644 0.680 0.835 77.1 14.1
135 11 40 0.590 0.691 0.778 85.1 16.2
135 12 40 0.486 0.686 0.608 90.7 17.2
135 13 41 0.395 0.654 0.502 88.1 21.0
135 14 41 0.334 0.577 0.421 85.0 23.0
135 15 39 0.254 0.535 0.295 85.3 23.0
135 16 27 0.272 0.591 0.307 86.8 26.4


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Last Modified 10 March 2014
Robert Grumbine

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Environmental Modeling Center
W/NP 21, NCWCP
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Jun-2014 16:02:26 UTC