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Statistics for all months of 1997 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
1513 1 0.368 0.588 0.468 0.99 4.8 -1.8 74.1 3.6
1512 2 0.367 0.587 0.492 2.06 8.7 -0.8 72.0 6.5
1526 3 0.349 0.575 0.498 3.00 12.2 -2.1 72.4 9.2
1530 4 0.324 0.560 0.486 3.95 15.4 -5.1 74.7 11.8
1508 5 0.292 0.540 0.469 4.83 18.4 -5.9 74.8 14.1
1497 6 0.269 0.528 0.451 5.63 21.1 -6.5 75.0 16.2

Forecasts at all lead time, scored by month for year 1997

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
786 1 0.502 0.697 0.534 1.35 12.8 -23.5 82.4 8.8
736 2 0.671 0.813 0.747 -1.06 10.1 -25.3 79.5 6.8
435 3 0.385 0.545 0.487 -6.82 12.2 -12.7 68.6 8.8
551 4 0.746 0.801 0.872 4.33 11.3 10.7 60.4 8.7
1156 5 0.504 0.708 0.512 3.31 11.1 3.1 75.0 7.7
875 6 0.336 0.570 0.571 4.49 14.7 -2.0 74.2 10.6
847 7 0.309 0.572 0.575 0.99 10.3 21.1 72.0 7.4
727 8 0.461 0.595 0.707 7.21 18.4 -3.7 69.6 14.4
585 9 0.478 0.593 0.612 14.46 22.2 -3.9 75.2 17.5
750 10 0.526 0.612 0.626 9.10 18.8 6.7 77.9 14.9
551 11 0.563 0.663 0.493 7.17 15.8 -7.0 71.1 9.5
1081 12 0.483 0.690 0.483 -1.73 14.0 -12.5 71.8 9.9

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Forecast Lead Observations Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
25 1 7 0.085 0.605 0.916 10.76 12.5 29.3 87.2 12.2
25 2 5 0.554 0.666 1.773 21.68 23.7 80.8 102.8 26.0
57 1 12 0.067 0.566 0.344 -0.78 4.9 -33.2 92.6 3.3
57 2 12 0.102 0.605 0.453 -0.55 7.5 -11.4 83.5 6.1
57 3 11 -0.159 0.537 0.348 -1.62 11.5 -28.5 83.5 7.5
57 4 11 -0.336 0.380 0.435 -5.44 15.9 -17.3 84.2 12.4
57 5 10 -0.541 0.367 0.238 -8.39 18.9 -19.2 90.6 17.7
57 6 10 -0.419 0.363 0.037 -10.43 20.5 -37.8 84.6 19.8
66 1 35 0.214 0.568 0.341 1.75 5.2 4.0 81.7 5.0
66 2 34 0.296 0.595 0.447 3.14 9.5 19.2 83.4 8.4
66 3 34 0.375 0.631 0.430 3.84 12.1 -0.2 79.6 11.3
66 4 34 0.430 0.668 0.467 5.22 13.9 15.0 69.4 12.2
66 5 34 0.433 0.661 0.579 6.78 16.1 12.6 69.8 15.6
66 6 34 0.407 0.663 0.570 8.12 18.5 26.1 68.8 17.1
68 1 168 0.249 0.519 0.577 -1.52 3.6 5.9 66.4 3.0
68 2 174 0.274 0.535 0.493 -2.79 6.2 2.7 67.8 4.6
68 3 182 0.152 0.458 0.343 -4.12 9.0 -1.0 72.8 6.4
68 4 182 0.089 0.411 0.260 -4.95 11.4 -7.0 81.3 8.1
68 5 167 -0.025 0.346 0.197 -5.83 14.0 -15.0 85.5 10.3
68 6 160 -0.023 0.349 0.163 -6.13 15.5 -18.0 86.8 12.4
70 1 17 0.629 0.697 0.909 -2.89 3.8 -9.3 56.6 3.2
70 2 19 0.526 0.576 0.838 -6.59 8.7 15.9 60.4 6.6
70 3 21 0.598 0.590 0.840 -9.32 12.8 23.5 72.7 11.6
70 4 23 0.687 0.618 0.815 -12.12 15.7 22.8 85.6 15.6
70 5 22 0.775 0.646 0.819 -14.06 17.2 20.6 89.2 17.6
70 6 22 0.727 0.621 0.671 -16.40 19.8 -16.2 84.2 20.3
82 1 234 0.208 0.495 0.558 0.97 5.3 -2.8 74.8 4.3
82 2 234 0.241 0.520 0.626 1.63 9.6 -2.5 70.7 7.8
82 3 236 0.244 0.526 0.661 1.97 13.2 -4.7 73.1 10.6
82 4 237 0.277 0.545 0.666 2.08 15.9 -6.7 75.0 12.8
82 5 237 0.291 0.547 0.649 2.38 18.3 -5.2 75.7 14.2
82 6 234 0.277 0.538 0.629 3.02 20.7 -3.7 72.7 16.9
84 1 31 0.127 0.512 0.907 0.35 4.5 15.7 60.5 4.2
84 2 31 0.137 0.537 1.081 0.55 7.5 19.5 72.0 7.4
84 3 31 0.209 0.566 1.030 1.19 9.4 16.1 73.6 9.3
84 4 30 0.141 0.513 0.964 1.92 11.9 5.4 81.4 12.1
84 5 31 0.072 0.496 0.828 2.28 14.0 16.4 78.3 13.6
84 6 31 0.014 0.483 0.660 2.30 14.7 -1.4 83.8 13.8
85 1 109 0.566 0.740 0.894 0.21 3.3 6.3 63.6 2.9
85 2 110 0.609 0.760 0.987 0.63 5.7 5.2 59.8 5.0
85 3 108 0.577 0.739 0.970 1.04 8.2 4.2 57.3 6.7
85 4 110 0.541 0.712 0.913 1.02 10.5 -8.3 65.9 8.6
85 5 108 0.473 0.667 0.785 0.96 12.9 -9.7 68.0 10.6
85 6 104 0.454 0.652 0.717 0.46 14.9 -6.6 67.4 12.3
86 1 115 0.520 0.713 0.835 -0.12 2.9 17.2 68.7 2.4
86 2 116 0.549 0.721 0.872 0.03 5.3 11.0 63.5 4.1
86 3 118 0.563 0.721 0.859 0.50 7.6 8.8 65.2 6.1
86 4 118 0.535 0.695 0.857 1.17 10.0 2.0 63.0 8.1
86 5 118 0.471 0.654 0.800 1.81 12.4 1.0 67.2 9.5
86 6 118 0.394 0.616 0.697 2.76 14.8 0.5 74.4 11.2
87 1 49 0.764 0.831 0.898 -0.32 4.2 31.0 57.8 2.9
87 2 49 0.688 0.799 0.937 0.40 8.4 32.3 52.8 6.7
87 3 51 0.726 0.807 0.958 0.66 10.9 27.4 60.4 7.6
87 4 51 0.593 0.731 0.904 1.66 15.2 24.9 69.5 11.8
87 5 51 0.504 0.689 0.756 1.95 18.2 24.3 72.2 12.6
87 6 51 0.409 0.653 0.574 1.76 20.6 27.7 79.2 14.8
99 1 160 0.337 0.608 0.757 0.01 3.8 -6.7 66.9 3.2
99 2 158 0.295 0.577 0.741 0.54 6.9 -1.4 70.6 6.0
99 3 157 0.309 0.589 0.725 0.95 9.7 1.2 70.6 8.7
99 4 156 0.245 0.544 0.628 1.40 12.4 9.9 70.7 10.8
99 5 154 0.181 0.501 0.585 1.45 15.1 10.3 71.6 13.2
99 6 158 0.142 0.478 0.538 1.78 17.9 11.3 74.1 15.8
102 1 20 0.794 0.832 1.164 1.39 4.2 45.5 82.9 2.8
102 2 20 0.751 0.815 1.133 2.19 7.1 30.2 78.2 5.1
102 3 20 0.663 0.768 1.044 3.78 10.3 36.3 71.1 7.1
102 4 20 0.736 0.773 1.078 5.37 12.5 28.9 71.7 8.4
102 5 20 0.779 0.787 1.138 7.20 14.6 19.2 69.5 9.3
102 6 20 0.714 0.743 1.170 9.50 17.6 26.8 66.2 9.4
103 1 57 0.100 0.443 0.232 6.68 8.0 21.5 78.9 7.4
103 2 57 0.062 0.430 0.210 14.04 16.2 20.7 76.0 15.5
103 3 57 0.071 0.423 0.138 21.06 23.8 18.7 76.0 23.1
103 4 57 0.088 0.423 0.135 27.69 31.0 18.5 74.1 29.6
103 5 57 0.087 0.426 0.171 33.47 37.6 18.3 72.4 34.9
103 6 57 0.067 0.429 0.141 38.68 43.6 14.8 72.3 39.0
104 1 96 0.310 0.529 0.693 2.75 5.3 -1.1 79.9 4.4
104 2 95 0.343 0.525 0.747 5.93 10.3 5.2 82.9 9.0
104 3 96 0.369 0.512 0.809 8.90 15.3 4.3 77.2 13.9
104 4 96 0.386 0.513 0.868 11.34 20.0 -1.8 76.5 18.4
104 5 96 0.403 0.513 0.912 12.88 23.8 3.0 68.5 21.9
104 6 96 0.438 0.527 0.919 14.31 27.2 1.5 67.5 24.4
116 1 119 0.175 0.472 0.375 2.33 6.1 12.3 80.2 4.2
116 2 113 0.128 0.449 0.431 4.47 11.3 12.0 81.4 7.9
116 3 112 0.192 0.494 0.498 6.21 15.1 12.9 82.8 10.7
116 4 113 0.244 0.511 0.526 7.97 18.5 8.9 89.6 14.4
116 5 111 0.202 0.492 0.488 9.15 22.1 9.9 81.2 16.8
116 6 109 0.207 0.498 0.456 10.02 24.7 4.8 80.8 18.5
119 1 60 0.517 0.674 0.757 -0.03 3.5 -38.7 80.3 2.5
119 2 61 0.544 0.704 0.867 0.52 6.2 -41.3 71.1 4.4
119 3 62 0.492 0.677 0.913 1.10 8.5 -35.4 65.7 5.7
119 4 63 0.452 0.668 0.927 2.07 10.5 -34.9 60.7 7.3
119 5 62 0.428 0.652 0.916 3.29 12.1 -35.9 59.8 9.4
119 6 63 0.356 0.621 0.849 3.69 13.9 -26.7 62.4 11.1
120 1 28 0.595 0.703 0.669 2.76 4.2 -47.5 90.7 2.4
120 2 26 0.594 0.696 0.733 4.28 6.5 -48.5 89.2 3.0
120 3 27 0.538 0.679 0.803 5.80 9.1 -43.3 87.8 4.8
120 4 28 0.425 0.662 0.795 6.91 10.7 -52.1 82.2 5.6
120 5 29 0.397 0.648 0.785 9.19 13.7 -57.2 89.8 6.4
120 6 29 0.359 0.638 0.757 11.05 16.3 -62.0 95.3 7.0
121 1 130 0.759 0.791 1.246 1.91 4.1 -49.9 85.0 2.2
121 2 131 0.748 0.778 1.268 4.10 7.8 -51.0 77.7 3.8
121 3 132 0.726 0.752 1.219 6.35 11.1 -51.6 77.1 6.0
121 4 132 0.700 0.744 1.187 8.56 14.1 -51.1 77.4 8.4
121 5 133 0.663 0.730 1.087 10.29 16.7 -57.0 77.4 10.6
121 6 132 0.596 0.711 1.020 11.05 18.9 -51.7 73.1 11.8
133 1 46 0.452 0.592 0.510 3.03 6.4 5.3 80.6 4.2
133 2 47 0.629 0.634 0.574 5.74 10.6 4.5 73.5 8.1
133 3 47 0.570 0.592 0.562 9.54 15.5 4.7 76.3 12.3
133 4 47 0.459 0.555 0.543 12.87 20.2 -5.8 75.8 17.2
133 5 47 0.400 0.549 0.520 15.48 23.8 9.4 78.1 20.3
133 6 47 0.338 0.548 0.520 18.03 26.7 -8.7 75.2 21.6


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Last Modified 9 April 2001
Robert.Grumbine@noaa.gov

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