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Statistics for all months of 1996 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
1569 1 0.423 0.586 0.580 1.92 5.7 -7.4 68.9 4.1
1572 2 0.389 0.558 0.582 3.93 10.9 -9.1 69.0 7.7
1566 3 0.351 0.537 0.569 5.75 15.2 -7.8 68.0 11.0
1560 4 0.319 0.520 0.559 7.17 18.7 -9.2 68.4 13.6
1554 5 0.282 0.495 0.510 8.33 22.6 -10.5 70.7 16.1
1550 6 0.243 0.471 0.458 9.25 25.9 -10.4 72.2 17.6

Forecasts at all lead time, scored by month for year 1996

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
800 1 0.537 0.718 0.550 3.06 14.5 -10.7 81.8 10.6
790 2 0.354 0.566 0.312 5.40 21.2 -16.4 66.2 14.2
523 3 0.475 0.638 0.546 0.96 17.2 -6.2 57.8 10.8
633 4 0.123 0.296 0.179 -0.43 23.9 -6.7 68.7 10.1
499 5 0.379 0.627 0.333 0.84 10.1 6.4 68.8 6.9
221 6 0.712 0.798 1.195 2.43 8.4 -32.7 54.7 6.4
345 7 0.628 0.755 0.658 2.06 9.8 23.8 71.0 8.1
1207 8 0.530 0.613 0.330 9.75 16.3 -1.2 84.2 12.1
1523 9 0.515 0.627 0.828 8.41 16.9 -6.9 68.4 13.2
1162 10 0.517 0.661 0.711 5.84 15.0 -9.0 68.5 10.6
977 11 0.512 0.556 0.817 11.97 25.8 -30.8 63.6 14.6
685 12 0.533 0.651 0.848 6.99 15.8 -12.3 53.2 12.2

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Forecast Lead Observations Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
33 1 16 0.454 0.571 0.376 11.34 13.5 -52.1 76.2 9.7
33 2 13 0.552 0.582 0.596 22.75 25.7 -65.8 83.9 24.6
33 3 10 0.465 0.609 0.786 31.72 35.6 -37.8 57.8 39.2
33 4 7 0.604 0.643 1.110 44.04 47.2 -31.8 47.7 55.2
33 5 4 0.929 0.709 1.812 54.42 55.4 -42.6 54.2 52.1
42 1 11 0.533 0.585 0.796 12.07 13.1 -38.0 84.1 10.9
42 2 12 0.378 0.515 0.569 30.57 33.2 -65.4 91.2 28.7
42 3 12 0.327 0.487 0.569 50.19 53.3 -57.3 75.5 44.9
42 4 12 0.415 0.483 0.682 69.24 73.6 -67.3 82.1 57.3
42 5 12 0.634 0.494 0.693 87.61 92.2 -65.7 84.3 71.0
42 6 12 0.833 0.501 0.844 107.83 112.2 -68.2 90.1 76.6
44 3 4 0.698 0.599 1.479 86.75 88.2 114.9 117.2 48.7
53 1 20 0.057 0.448 0.118 0.40 9.1 -37.8 89.0 6.1
53 2 21 0.386 0.506 0.316 3.91 18.2 -19.1 89.4 6.0
53 3 21 0.274 0.605 0.295 1.69 19.2 -25.3 87.7 6.0
53 4 21 0.010 0.507 0.424 -3.38 26.2 -16.9 89.9 9.4
53 5 21 -0.309 0.372 0.421 -8.88 36.0 -20.8 92.1 16.8
53 6 21 -0.543 0.249 0.570 -13.25 46.5 -17.0 91.9 25.7
56 1 79 0.306 0.557 0.824 2.81 5.5 -26.1 78.2 4.2
56 2 80 0.273 0.544 0.823 5.43 10.6 -28.2 78.2 7.3
56 3 80 0.243 0.528 0.844 7.91 15.3 -11.5 73.5 11.2
56 4 80 0.216 0.508 0.854 9.83 19.6 -17.5 70.8 13.4
56 5 80 0.215 0.495 0.851 11.51 23.6 -17.2 75.6 16.4
56 6 80 0.155 0.469 0.803 12.85 27.5 -20.2 79.0 17.8
62 1 7 0.232 0.627 1.529 8.67 12.8 -34.5 45.1 9.1
62 2 6 0.156 0.705 1.589 11.10 16.7 -32.4 43.3 8.6
62 3 5 0.391 0.826 1.910 9.20 14.9 -25.3 36.4 8.6
62 4 5 -0.167 0.773 1.611 15.16 22.8 -36.1 48.1 6.9
62 5 6 -0.187 0.769 0.288 18.58 26.3 -54.8 61.1 8.9
62 6 6 -0.293 0.779 0.902 24.20 29.5 -67.5 70.7 7.9
66 1 51 0.148 0.440 0.617 0.13 5.9 3.0 76.3 4.3
66 2 51 0.174 0.475 0.853 0.12 10.1 0.6 74.4 7.8
66 3 51 0.092 0.450 0.904 0.47 13.0 -10.9 75.8 11.2
66 4 51 0.041 0.418 0.884 1.19 16.2 -3.6 70.7 13.8
66 5 51 0.083 0.423 0.881 2.38 19.8 7.0 68.2 16.5
66 6 51 0.167 0.459 0.815 2.94 22.4 18.9 70.6 18.4
67 1 106 0.402 0.632 0.819 -0.80 3.6 -7.0 66.5 3.0
67 2 111 0.431 0.672 0.797 -1.64 6.2 -7.7 68.9 5.0
67 3 111 0.321 0.615 0.722 -2.31 8.7 -14.9 60.4 6.7
67 4 112 0.252 0.562 0.671 -3.69 10.9 -19.8 64.8 9.6
67 5 113 0.176 0.515 0.639 -5.30 14.1 -14.0 64.3 12.6
67 6 114 0.145 0.487 0.636 -5.96 16.5 -8.3 66.6 14.4
68 1 80 0.304 0.606 0.736 -0.42 3.4 -0.1 61.0 2.8
68 2 81 0.273 0.586 0.808 -0.96 5.9 -13.0 68.8 4.5
68 3 83 0.255 0.560 0.776 -1.77 8.0 -8.7 67.3 6.7
68 4 83 0.151 0.486 0.737 -1.93 10.2 -2.9 70.2 8.6
68 5 82 0.155 0.482 0.660 -1.91 11.4 0.0 73.2 9.3
68 6 81 0.184 0.490 0.625 -1.77 12.0 0.5 70.3 8.8
82 1 108 0.469 0.580 0.732 2.10 5.9 -7.3 62.9 4.6
82 2 108 0.482 0.581 0.839 4.52 10.6 -1.7 61.7 8.5
82 3 108 0.394 0.545 0.883 6.42 14.6 1.0 59.5 12.9
82 4 108 0.332 0.523 0.913 7.58 18.3 -5.7 63.8 16.5
82 5 108 0.265 0.502 0.833 8.32 21.3 -7.5 61.6 19.1
82 6 108 0.250 0.508 0.760 8.74 23.4 -11.6 63.7 19.3
83 1 180 0.546 0.685 0.951 1.05 4.5 5.5 65.7 3.7
83 2 183 0.564 0.683 1.029 2.07 8.0 3.0 62.6 6.8
83 3 182 0.549 0.673 1.078 3.24 11.0 3.8 58.1 9.1
83 4 181 0.500 0.649 1.063 4.47 13.7 0.9 54.1 11.4
83 5 180 0.427 0.626 1.009 5.33 15.8 -2.6 54.8 13.2
83 6 179 0.317 0.577 0.956 6.15 18.1 -7.2 53.9 14.7
86 1 18 0.461 0.696 0.240 -1.59 4.3 -8.8 75.2 3.3
86 2 20 -0.006 0.366 0.006 -5.35 10.7 -28.1 77.8 7.5
86 3 21 0.126 0.398 0.157 -7.60 14.7 -27.8 87.3 10.1
86 4 20 0.445 0.598 0.430 -8.41 14.9 -22.7 89.1 11.4
86 5 20 0.426 0.539 0.786 -12.37 17.3 -43.4 92.2 15.3
86 6 19 0.325 0.468 0.872 -16.51 20.9 -51.6 91.6 19.5
87 1 34 0.524 0.663 0.797 1.79 3.6 15.6 69.7 3.2
87 2 34 0.550 0.666 0.873 3.97 6.7 35.7 78.9 5.8
87 3 34 0.636 0.686 0.848 6.44 9.4 31.9 83.4 8.0
87 4 34 0.699 0.713 0.836 8.46 11.6 45.0 86.7 10.2
87 5 34 0.769 0.742 0.735 9.92 13.2 41.5 86.3 11.5
87 6 34 0.769 0.765 0.732 10.90 14.9 45.0 78.8 12.5
90 1 11 0.247 0.628 1.316 12.95 16.2 -14.7 56.8 11.3
90 2 9 0.194 0.634 1.337 22.24 30.6 3.4 80.2 26.8
90 3 7 -0.285 0.551 0.974 20.70 43.1 8.0 71.9 47.1
90 4 6 0.024 0.547 1.457 4.60 38.0 -9.3 28.4 42.8
90 5 6 -0.242 0.486 1.421 -2.50 38.1 -15.7 32.4 42.2
90 6 6 -0.446 0.579 1.004 6.27 42.8 -1.0 41.5 36.5
98 1 76 0.375 0.525 0.728 4.56 7.9 8.2 58.7 5.5
98 2 76 0.167 0.483 0.928 8.70 14.4 8.0 55.9 11.8
98 3 76 0.145 0.480 1.015 12.03 18.7 4.7 59.2 16.8
98 4 76 0.068 0.469 0.986 15.26 23.1 1.3 66.6 19.4
98 5 76 -0.028 0.453 0.874 17.85 27.3 -10.5 67.3 22.9
98 6 76 -0.055 0.444 0.807 19.71 30.6 -9.2 70.2 25.5
99 1 74 0.689 0.781 1.153 1.42 3.6 5.3 52.0 3.3
99 2 73 0.664 0.760 1.278 3.36 6.9 2.4 47.7 6.3
99 3 73 0.655 0.748 1.245 4.97 9.4 -0.7 52.1 8.5
99 4 73 0.659 0.748 1.185 6.34 11.5 3.3 55.1 10.0
99 5 73 0.634 0.743 1.091 7.02 13.4 2.1 64.6 11.8
99 6 74 0.643 0.756 0.975 7.18 14.7 2.6 64.5 12.0
101 1 83 0.519 0.716 0.507 0.40 3.6 -18.7 79.3 2.9
101 2 83 0.465 0.687 0.650 0.67 6.5 -19.1 78.1 5.1
101 3 83 0.436 0.674 0.674 1.24 9.0 -14.8 80.0 7.6
101 4 83 0.390 0.637 0.668 2.56 11.8 -22.4 81.8 9.6
101 5 83 0.292 0.565 0.640 3.64 15.0 -26.9 85.5 11.9
101 6 83 0.187 0.506 0.540 3.98 17.8 -42.2 87.1 14.3
103 1 83 0.147 0.461 0.198 5.07 6.5 17.3 92.0 5.8
103 2 83 0.215 0.458 0.241 10.36 12.1 4.1 95.5 11.1
103 3 83 0.265 0.424 0.275 15.08 16.8 5.5 96.2 15.9
103 4 83 0.235 0.398 0.218 18.80 20.6 8.0 99.6 19.7
103 5 83 0.277 0.417 0.152 21.76 24.0 -2.5 102.2 23.0
103 6 82 0.339 0.432 0.120 24.10 27.2 16.8 105.2 24.9
104 1 24 0.317 0.630 0.974 -0.32 2.8 8.8 67.6 2.1
104 2 23 0.277 0.657 0.905 -0.51 4.2 7.3 53.1 3.3
104 3 21 0.008 0.668 0.943 0.09 5.0 14.7 39.6 4.9
104 4 21 -0.029 0.663 0.946 1.12 6.4 12.0 34.3 6.3
104 5 20 0.102 0.705 0.887 2.50 7.7 14.6 32.8 7.8
104 6 19 0.361 0.781 0.919 3.61 7.7 12.5 31.9 7.5
119 1 235 0.500 0.646 0.858 1.40 4.9 -17.8 64.3 3.7
119 2 235 0.486 0.630 0.958 2.83 8.9 -13.6 61.8 6.9
119 3 235 0.524 0.646 1.006 4.56 12.0 -12.5 60.9 9.9
119 4 235 0.514 0.630 1.003 6.05 14.8 -9.0 60.0 12.1
119 5 234 0.521 0.633 0.950 7.24 16.9 -10.0 64.1 13.6
119 6 235 0.499 0.619 0.885 7.72 18.8 -11.0 67.7 15.4
120 1 68 0.661 0.774 1.135 1.63 4.9 -48.5 80.1 3.1
120 2 66 0.723 0.800 1.236 3.18 8.1 -43.3 78.0 4.9
120 3 66 0.712 0.789 1.237 4.81 11.1 -35.3 77.9 6.8
120 4 64 0.679 0.778 1.255 6.07 13.5 -42.7 74.5 9.3
120 5 64 0.662 0.766 1.190 6.92 15.0 -41.8 74.0 10.8
120 6 63 0.564 0.715 1.095 8.16 17.2 -51.0 74.8 11.5
121 1 39 0.574 0.768 1.393 0.58 2.3 -11.8 60.6 2.1
121 2 38 0.597 0.780 1.414 1.45 4.0 -21.3 60.7 3.5
121 3 39 0.546 0.752 1.350 1.85 5.7 -29.7 61.7 4.9
121 4 39 0.561 0.758 1.390 2.25 7.0 -33.7 59.0 6.1
121 5 39 0.561 0.757 1.424 2.18 8.2 -30.7 59.0 7.1
121 6 39 0.491 0.708 1.308 2.14 10.2 -22.2 59.2 8.9
136 1 97 0.682 0.681 1.080 2.94 4.7 3.0 63.3 4.2
136 2 97 0.699 0.702 1.151 5.88 8.6 -13.8 60.5 7.7
136 3 97 0.727 0.700 1.139 8.87 12.0 -12.9 65.6 11.6
136 4 97 0.696 0.665 1.050 11.64 15.2 -24.3 67.8 14.4
136 5 97 0.663 0.646 0.907 13.76 18.0 -20.1 75.7 17.7
136 6 97 0.616 0.639 0.789 15.01 20.2 -23.2 76.2 16.2
137 1 37 0.436 0.609 0.878 2.90 5.2 -9.5 54.2 4.0
137 2 37 0.438 0.596 0.973 7.23 10.5 -20.5 57.1 9.4
137 3 37 0.464 0.574 1.010 11.73 15.6 -3.4 64.7 14.8
137 4 37 0.485 0.553 0.950 15.42 19.7 -10.5 65.3 18.1
137 5 37 0.460 0.537 0.896 19.09 23.8 -14.1 64.6 22.6
137 6 37 0.436 0.531 0.842 21.50 27.3 0.4 69.1 26.1


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Robert.Grumbine@noaa.gov

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