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Statistics for all months of 1995 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
1306 1 0.284 0.501 0.590 2.09 6.1 1.4 68.6 4.5
1304 2 0.283 0.485 0.643 4.46 11.8 -1.5 66.0 8.5
1300 3 0.299 0.492 0.668 6.56 16.7 -0.0 65.5 12.0
1292 4 0.300 0.488 0.668 8.60 21.3 -0.6 66.2 15.2
1278 5 0.302 0.490 0.640 10.68 25.7 1.0 67.9 18.3
1268 6 0.303 0.487 0.606 12.42 30.0 0.4 69.2 20.8

Forecasts at all lead time, scored by month for year 1995

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
929 1 0.584 0.579 0.699 10.75 25.2 10.7 68.6 16.3
213 2 0.578 0.697 1.000 -3.31 13.4 -33.7 65.5 9.9
293 3 0.367 0.504 0.782 13.91 38.1 -7.2 68.4 25.3
59 4 0.176 0.472 0.571 7.45 20.6 -19.0 82.4 7.9
497 5 0.117 0.432 0.664 12.04 24.6 4.7 61.4 17.2
515 6 0.617 0.737 0.239 4.70 11.4 -24.3 89.3 8.7
505 7 0.644 0.759 0.829 6.28 12.8 -0.1 61.6 11.1
586 8 0.506 0.670 0.922 5.11 15.2 1.8 68.9 13.0
1227 9 0.515 0.623 0.743 7.51 19.2 8.4 66.4 12.8
714 10 0.567 0.695 0.885 5.64 16.7 3.2 45.5 12.2
1154 11 0.498 0.663 0.642 4.49 12.9 -16.1 69.1 9.4
1050 12 0.483 0.569 0.576 10.28 24.9 16.2 67.9 14.5

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Forecast Lead Observations Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
42 1 68 -0.035 0.368 0.514 2.56 8.1 46.7 96.3 5.6
42 2 46 -0.418 0.371 0.616 12.03 17.9 59.8 98.7 14.2
42 3 45 -0.416 0.402 0.766 19.66 26.9 89.1 99.7 19.2
42 4 45 -0.455 0.424 0.931 26.10 35.5 88.0 96.9 22.0
42 5 45 -0.344 0.439 0.985 32.62 44.4 87.2 96.4 23.2
42 6 45 -0.370 0.449 0.885 38.78 52.5 80.2 92.8 30.5
56 1 19 -0.539 0.391 0.120 4.13 8.6 31.7 121.0 5.4
56 2 19 -0.741 0.354 0.315 7.82 16.8 -19.7 116.6 9.3
56 3 19 -0.823 0.363 0.631 12.24 24.3 -28.1 111.2 15.4
56 4 19 -0.786 0.386 0.994 16.38 30.5 -26.0 115.4 15.8
56 5 19 -0.750 0.412 1.006 18.94 34.3 -9.7 116.6 20.4
56 6 19 -0.603 0.420 1.052 20.63 38.3 -29.2 121.0 26.6
62 1 12 -0.039 0.539 0.648 14.68 17.4 5.6 84.5 15.8
62 2 12 0.226 0.543 0.599 30.12 34.5 16.1 55.1 33.9
62 3 11 0.233 0.547 0.894 41.54 48.0 5.7 56.3 46.3
62 4 10 0.214 0.543 0.973 55.13 62.6 26.5 64.4 64.2
62 5 10 0.376 0.540 0.837 63.28 71.5 20.0 53.9 80.1
62 6 10 0.742 0.546 0.709 69.24 77.5 15.7 48.5 84.6
69 1 58 -0.068 0.355 0.718 0.17 4.7 6.4 54.4 4.3
69 2 58 -0.051 0.364 0.758 0.87 8.8 7.8 51.7 8.1
69 3 59 0.094 0.456 0.777 1.23 12.1 11.4 49.7 11.1
69 4 59 0.192 0.499 0.753 2.14 15.3 3.8 52.8 14.6
69 5 59 0.245 0.515 0.699 3.28 18.5 9.3 59.2 18.0
69 6 59 0.246 0.500 0.643 5.31 22.0 6.4 61.8 19.6
73 1 43 0.735 0.618 0.679 7.39 10.8 -20.6 76.3 9.7
73 2 42 0.774 0.608 0.836 14.98 20.4 -39.3 78.3 17.0
73 3 40 0.789 0.637 0.812 20.59 27.8 -43.4 87.3 22.2
73 4 40 0.766 0.659 0.616 24.36 32.2 -48.8 95.0 27.2
73 5 39 0.722 0.659 0.592 27.61 35.8 -21.3 95.6 29.8
73 6 38 0.360 0.518 0.353 28.83 37.7 -55.5 94.4 30.3
82 1 53 0.262 0.589 0.842 1.93 4.9 6.7 66.5 4.3
82 2 53 0.348 0.622 0.878 3.80 8.9 -1.0 61.1 7.4
82 3 53 0.402 0.658 0.872 4.88 12.4 7.4 62.9 10.6
82 4 53 0.455 0.694 0.925 4.91 15.1 1.0 60.2 13.3
82 5 53 0.495 0.722 0.976 4.21 17.1 10.4 59.7 14.6
82 6 53 0.520 0.734 1.013 3.68 19.6 2.5 58.0 18.3
83 1 95 0.374 0.615 0.991 1.84 4.4 -22.2 56.4 4.0
83 2 96 0.417 0.617 1.097 3.84 7.6 -13.4 52.5 7.3
83 3 96 0.468 0.645 1.169 5.59 10.3 -14.4 57.0 9.9
83 4 96 0.420 0.630 1.155 6.98 13.1 -1.9 56.3 12.5
83 5 95 0.390 0.618 1.154 7.53 15.3 -2.5 54.0 14.6
83 6 94 0.338 0.594 1.097 7.28 17.0 -0.2 55.2 15.9
84 1 225 0.338 0.598 0.834 0.37 3.9 1.9 56.7 3.4
84 2 231 0.335 0.585 0.935 0.66 6.9 -4.1 55.1 6.2
84 3 230 0.352 0.597 0.999 0.96 9.3 -0.9 53.1 8.7
84 4 231 0.362 0.609 1.010 1.28 11.3 -3.9 55.0 10.7
84 5 230 0.326 0.595 0.938 1.58 13.5 0.4 56.6 12.1
84 6 226 0.266 0.564 0.841 1.75 15.6 0.6 60.6 13.6
86 1 75 0.628 0.767 0.891 -0.33 3.3 -7.4 56.2 3.0
86 2 81 0.707 0.814 0.932 -1.11 5.3 -6.4 53.7 5.2
86 3 84 0.702 0.816 0.892 -1.47 7.3 -2.2 51.6 6.8
86 4 83 0.699 0.825 0.885 -1.25 9.0 -2.2 50.2 8.3
86 5 85 0.713 0.834 0.840 -1.15 10.4 -4.2 55.7 10.0
86 6 86 0.700 0.824 0.780 -1.02 11.9 -2.5 55.2 10.8
89 1 25 0.296 0.534 0.322 11.75 15.3 30.0 74.0 13.1
89 2 26 0.518 0.566 0.377 24.04 30.6 9.4 60.4 27.6
89 3 26 0.524 0.553 0.636 41.32 51.6 11.4 47.0 49.8
89 4 28 0.503 0.547 0.685 54.28 69.0 20.3 41.3 68.6
89 5 29 0.456 0.539 0.576 68.97 86.1 26.5 37.7 87.7
89 6 30 0.582 0.550 0.651 87.21 106.7 27.7 42.9 109.8
99 1 41 0.256 0.584 0.755 0.95 4.8 -5.0 66.5 4.0
99 2 41 0.256 0.568 0.790 1.87 8.0 -3.9 70.0 7.6
99 3 41 0.322 0.627 0.807 2.43 9.9 1.9 66.4 8.7
99 4 40 0.313 0.633 0.841 2.88 12.0 3.4 69.0 9.5
99 5 41 0.338 0.646 0.805 3.81 14.2 10.5 76.4 12.4
99 6 41 0.307 0.638 0.732 4.96 16.1 7.8 77.3 13.8
100 1 62 0.674 0.752 1.329 1.65 4.0 -4.2 63.3 3.3
100 2 62 0.660 0.747 1.328 3.28 6.8 -3.4 66.1 6.4
100 3 62 0.656 0.760 1.330 4.44 9.0 -1.6 55.9 8.0
100 4 62 0.654 0.765 1.278 5.61 11.0 -8.3 61.7 9.5
100 5 62 0.652 0.759 1.177 7.45 13.2 4.5 66.7 11.9
100 6 62 0.639 0.748 1.076 8.47 14.9 8.1 67.3 12.6
101 1 63 0.037 0.443 0.918 0.28 3.8 -6.7 65.5 3.1
101 2 64 0.040 0.444 0.994 -0.29 7.0 -7.7 64.1 5.5
101 3 65 0.079 0.445 1.010 -1.65 9.8 -9.7 64.4 8.2
101 4 64 0.193 0.510 1.035 -2.35 11.5 -4.9 63.7 9.5
101 5 61 0.283 0.557 1.006 -3.66 13.1 0.4 68.9 10.9
101 6 59 0.378 0.612 0.939 -5.21 14.2 2.7 72.6 10.5
102 1 43 0.464 0.638 0.158 2.37 4.3 -28.5 110.2 3.8
102 2 43 0.689 0.739 0.206 4.27 6.4 -52.5 107.5 6.2
102 3 43 0.758 0.757 0.324 6.62 8.7 -56.8 112.6 7.8
102 4 43 0.715 0.742 0.472 8.68 11.4 -53.9 114.8 10.0
102 5 43 0.602 0.692 0.427 10.68 14.5 -51.0 114.4 13.3
102 6 42 0.545 0.671 0.370 12.53 17.4 -26.5 115.6 14.0
103 1 35 0.133 0.464 NaN 5.85 7.2 20.9 74.1 6.6
103 2 37 0.408 0.481 NaN 12.65 14.8 30.7 69.1 12.5
103 3 36 0.369 0.459 NaN 19.39 22.3 30.6 66.0 18.9
103 4 35 0.258 0.435 NaN 26.06 29.8 27.1 61.8 24.3
103 5 34 0.179 0.424 NaN 32.22 36.8 33.9 54.6 29.4
103 6 32 0.103 0.429 NaN 38.34 43.9 41.4 46.8 34.4
104 1 76 0.599 0.724 0.862 1.68 4.0 17.5 77.3 2.7
104 2 78 0.544 0.669 0.799 3.77 7.8 18.6 75.8 6.6
104 3 75 0.544 0.676 0.786 5.90 10.9 18.0 80.1 9.0
104 4 72 0.475 0.640 0.845 8.31 14.8 22.0 72.8 11.2
104 5 71 0.426 0.627 0.857 10.12 18.2 0.3 72.3 14.6
104 6 71 0.375 0.608 0.872 12.77 22.1 -0.6 67.2 16.9
116 1 59 0.108 0.520 0.788 1.08 3.6 2.9 49.4 3.0
116 2 58 0.144 0.527 0.796 1.61 6.3 -0.3 48.9 5.4
116 3 57 0.185 0.550 0.809 2.72 8.4 1.6 47.7 6.3
116 4 56 0.120 0.521 0.697 3.41 11.0 -5.5 51.4 8.9
116 5 55 0.117 0.503 0.577 3.82 13.1 -14.4 60.4 10.9
116 6 54 0.140 0.501 0.457 3.36 14.9 -14.0 56.8 12.4
118 1 28 0.407 0.627 0.550 2.38 5.0 23.7 75.8 4.0
118 2 28 0.551 0.663 0.547 5.71 8.5 11.3 80.3 6.0
118 3 28 0.617 0.637 0.503 9.71 12.2 19.1 92.7 11.1
118 4 28 0.599 0.593 0.556 14.26 16.9 6.1 96.1 15.5
118 5 28 0.423 0.563 0.528 17.41 21.4 7.8 90.3 17.6
118 6 28 0.291 0.557 0.589 19.91 25.1 18.9 88.5 19.8
119 1 74 0.191 0.530 0.614 2.63 4.8 -14.3 56.4 4.0
119 2 75 0.217 0.537 0.616 5.57 8.8 -14.6 55.2 7.0
119 3 75 0.174 0.513 0.592 9.21 13.3 -17.7 52.9 11.5
119 4 75 0.221 0.522 0.603 12.87 17.1 -14.0 52.5 15.2
119 5 75 0.288 0.522 0.535 16.55 20.8 -19.9 57.6 19.5
119 6 75 0.397 0.536 0.448 19.47 23.4 -22.1 62.8 20.7
121 1 6 -0.396 0.568 0.758 0.15 2.1 -51.6 80.3 1.7
121 2 6 0.395 0.788 0.781 0.92 3.6 -39.9 96.4 2.3
121 3 6 0.576 0.829 0.923 0.23 5.4 -73.0 80.5 3.5
121 4 6 0.284 0.689 1.051 -2.83 7.8 -88.3 102.4 5.7
121 5 6 -0.165 0.645 1.439 -3.67 10.3 -95.4 119.4 9.7
121 6 6 -0.649 0.568 1.387 -1.05 11.5 -91.9 129.0 13.5
122 1 4 -0.654 0.691 1.015 -0.12 3.8 1.1 31.4 4.0
135 1 5 -0.039 0.698 1.677 0.32 3.6 43.0 67.2 1.5
135 2 5 0.331 0.828 1.403 -0.84 4.2 43.7 81.1 1.8
135 3 5 0.543 0.879 1.296 -1.68 4.1 76.1 95.4 3.7
135 4 5 0.707 0.958 1.064 -0.40 3.0 64.2 82.2 2.5
135 5 5 0.803 0.970 0.516 2.02 3.4 59.5 72.8 2.2
135 6 5 0.429 0.967 1.545 2.40 4.1 59.0 66.2 2.3
136 1 26 0.608 0.669 1.175 3.91 5.9 -5.4 51.5 5.4
136 2 26 0.714 0.704 1.256 7.84 10.8 -3.4 46.9 10.7
136 3 26 0.647 0.680 1.216 11.67 15.9 -20.3 46.4 15.7
136 4 26 0.645 0.663 1.104 14.84 19.8 -10.0 50.1 21.1
136 5 26 0.587 0.656 0.945 17.57 23.2 -27.7 61.4 23.4
136 6 26 0.470 0.627 0.720 21.45 27.8 -20.2 66.0 24.8
137 1 28 0.595 0.734 0.735 2.19 4.2 -13.4 59.6 3.7
137 2 28 0.509 0.664 0.853 6.05 8.6 -8.6 60.3 7.7
137 3 28 0.484 0.636 0.937 9.44 12.1 -10.7 46.6 9.6
137 4 28 0.359 0.588 0.906 11.87 15.4 -13.8 51.1 11.7
137 5 28 0.396 0.574 0.846 14.59 18.2 -12.9 64.5 13.5
137 6 28 0.603 0.602 0.861 17.19 19.5 -5.4 81.9 18.8
139 1 13 -0.539 0.058 0.123 -4.22 7.1 -18.9 99.5 4.3
139 2 14 -0.517 0.153 0.506 -9.64 13.8 -7.6 92.7 8.3
139 3 15 -0.617 0.165 0.705 -13.11 17.1 5.3 95.6 11.4
139 4 14 -0.579 0.164 0.582 -15.36 19.8 -6.1 105.7 11.2
139 5 7 -0.694 0.363 0.988 -6.23 10.5 15.2 136.6 8.9
139 6 7 -0.219 0.529 0.628 -5.00 8.9 -0.2 148.7 8.7
153 1 10 -0.234 0.539 0.599 12.94 15.7 34.1 88.4 6.9
153 2 11 0.088 0.567 0.632 24.11 28.5 50.8 70.8 22.4
153 3 12 0.278 0.584 0.889 32.73 38.6 40.5 58.1 34.7
153 4 13 0.349 0.590 1.226 40.02 47.6 33.3 58.0 47.6
153 5 13 0.335 0.585 1.163 51.07 57.4 15.8 33.8 60.9
153 6 14 0.482 0.602 0.649 57.39 64.5 10.4 31.4 69.5
154 1 4 -0.972 0.627 1.009 2.45 6.1 26.0 56.1 3.1
167 1 23 0.120 0.467 0.667 -3.10 4.8 12.5 66.7 3.4
167 2 24 0.008 0.437 0.716 -5.34 8.3 6.5 57.7 6.5
167 3 25 0.100 0.464 0.836 -6.68 10.0 1.2 51.9 9.1
167 4 26 0.224 0.493 1.037 -8.40 11.5 2.6 41.0 10.3
167 5 26 0.109 0.451 0.947 -10.42 14.8 4.1 37.7 14.3
167 6 26 -0.023 0.389 0.698 -9.91 19.5 1.4 33.0 19.1


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Last Modified 9 April 2001
Robert.Grumbine@noaa.gov

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