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Statistics for all months of 1994 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
2039 1 0.345 0.566 0.506 1.43 6.0 -4.3 73.8 4.4
1989 2 0.401 0.581 0.586 3.53 11.1 -9.4 70.5 8.0
1973 3 0.410 0.586 0.600 5.32 15.4 -7.8 68.6 11.2
1961 4 0.424 0.579 0.581 7.33 20.4 -7.3 68.4 14.4
1900 5 0.451 0.585 0.577 9.92 25.0 -6.6 69.2 18.0
1903 6 0.459 0.586 0.554 11.87 29.5 -5.9 70.2 21.0

Forecasts at all lead time, scored by month for year 1994

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
875 1 0.715 0.772 1.052 3.68 16.6 -21.5 61.9 11.5
995 2 0.526 0.618 0.776 7.76 21.7 -9.6 62.9 12.7
1413 3 0.237 0.467 0.195 5.13 19.5 -6.7 82.0 10.9
1156 4 0.160 0.504 0.190 2.50 13.2 -13.8 82.5 8.6
798 5 0.619 0.757 0.836 5.35 13.1 -11.3 60.3 9.3
1192 6 0.554 0.668 0.605 6.49 14.8 1.3 67.1 10.5
-1 7 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1842 8 0.449 0.638 0.627 6.69 17.6 3.0 56.3 14.6
1042 9 0.498 0.629 0.493 8.00 20.5 -1.5 72.0 13.4
716 10 0.714 0.674 0.877 15.43 32.3 -0.8 73.7 25.8
858 11 0.633 0.648 0.489 5.94 23.1 -24.4 70.4 10.6
873 12 0.448 0.604 0.266 7.11 20.6 -2.0 80.6 14.4

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Forecast Lead Observations Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
25 1 24 -0.176 0.481 0.589 8.87 13.0 -11.6 69.8 11.5
25 2 24 -0.284 0.482 0.567 18.47 25.3 -2.0 68.0 22.2
25 3 23 -0.237 0.494 0.621 27.52 36.4 -0.3 72.4 31.3
25 4 22 -0.214 0.491 0.614 34.23 44.5 -5.9 90.8 35.9
25 5 19 -0.260 0.505 0.564 40.65 52.5 -24.0 104.0 45.7
25 6 19 -0.308 0.494 0.410 52.03 65.1 -35.8 106.8 49.1
33 1 14 0.819 0.633 0.832 9.11 10.2 12.4 102.9 11.0
33 2 15 0.689 0.582 1.304 25.08 31.0 -39.5 90.5 21.3
33 3 14 0.541 0.566 1.505 39.06 46.2 -66.9 89.9 32.2
33 4 13 0.353 0.542 1.310 56.96 65.6 -48.1 64.9 33.3
33 5 12 0.336 0.538 0.970 75.48 83.4 -33.6 43.7 67.7
33 6 12 0.151 0.530 1.613 90.22 97.0 -25.2 38.3 92.1
42 1 10 -0.497 0.353 1.392 4.58 10.9 -18.0 114.0 10.0
42 2 9 -0.565 0.385 1.487 9.29 21.9 -24.5 117.7 17.0
42 3 8 -0.643 0.410 1.499 17.36 33.3 -126.6 133.0 27.3
42 4 7 -0.701 0.504 1.244 27.37 41.7 -131.4 132.9 28.6
42 5 7 -0.638 0.557 1.240 41.01 49.2 -138.6 139.1 41.0
42 6 7 -0.252 0.592 1.302 51.01 55.5 -115.8 132.2 54.3
50 1 5 0.468 0.791 1.010 0.10 3.8 -51.9 66.5 1.6
50 2 5 0.236 0.671 1.003 5.50 13.8 -64.6 72.0 3.6
50 3 5 0.272 0.706 1.050 15.58 25.2 -71.9 77.2 5.2
50 4 5 0.430 0.730 1.077 28.68 36.0 -86.5 86.9 4.3
50 5 5 0.591 0.739 1.318 41.02 45.1 -88.5 88.7 3.4
50 6 5 0.666 0.723 0.921 54.26 55.6 -85.3 85.9 10.9
53 1 4 0.332 0.765 1.317 13.42 20.3 -121.8 125.9 13.9
66 1 8 0.700 0.736 0.699 1.66 5.6 -26.7 71.6 4.6
66 2 8 0.929 0.633 0.943 7.76 14.0 -38.0 83.8 11.3
66 3 8 0.710 0.673 0.999 13.36 18.7 -17.8 59.1 17.1
66 4 8 0.745 0.688 1.019 18.94 23.4 -27.7 51.5 16.5
66 5 8 0.728 0.695 0.908 23.69 27.5 -12.2 59.1 19.6
66 6 8 0.868 0.713 1.273 27.79 30.2 -14.6 63.0 23.2
67 2 6 -0.687 0.583 0.962 28.73 30.3 -7.9 80.0 31.6
67 3 8 -0.789 0.552 1.189 27.75 31.0 -3.9 50.9 24.5
67 4 9 -0.424 0.590 1.475 22.58 26.8 21.5 54.2 22.7
67 5 9 -0.420 0.604 1.313 22.14 26.1 34.7 54.1 22.6
67 6 11 0.274 0.678 0.863 18.05 22.6 4.8 62.7 23.4
69 1 153 0.271 0.555 0.874 -1.65 4.5 -10.7 55.8 4.1
69 2 153 0.354 0.606 0.952 -2.73 7.1 -16.4 56.7 6.3
69 3 155 0.367 0.620 0.916 -3.10 9.3 -11.3 59.7 8.1
69 4 154 0.293 0.582 0.863 -3.84 11.9 -11.4 57.9 10.8
69 5 153 0.239 0.539 0.824 -5.39 14.4 -19.0 55.4 13.5
69 6 153 0.169 0.485 0.765 -6.17 17.1 -20.1 57.0 15.5
73 1 28 0.227 0.546 0.354 8.44 11.5 18.7 69.1 10.5
73 2 25 0.365 0.574 0.748 13.53 21.7 33.4 56.4 20.2
73 3 24 0.211 0.555 0.913 19.22 32.3 37.0 52.4 30.2
73 4 26 0.526 0.573 0.954 28.60 44.7 34.1 47.7 43.3
73 5 27 0.654 0.587 0.796 38.71 57.5 33.7 43.7 57.8
73 6 27 0.722 0.617 0.874 49.18 69.4 35.2 45.2 71.0
81 1 25 0.379 0.537 0.463 -6.60 10.1 11.3 96.2 9.1
82 1 196 0.598 0.689 1.266 1.52 4.5 -9.9 58.0 4.0
82 2 198 0.649 0.738 1.417 2.30 7.7 -9.3 52.7 6.9
82 3 196 0.642 0.745 1.452 2.97 10.4 -9.8 48.5 9.8
82 4 193 0.626 0.735 1.415 3.80 13.0 1.7 51.5 12.4
82 5 193 0.586 0.719 1.336 4.89 15.7 -6.4 53.7 15.1
82 6 191 0.545 0.706 1.257 5.34 17.8 -7.2 59.0 15.3
83 1 91 0.646 0.783 0.920 0.30 3.3 -4.9 66.8 2.6
83 2 89 0.629 0.757 0.985 0.80 5.7 -9.4 62.0 4.8
83 3 87 0.678 0.774 1.054 1.37 7.6 -8.3 61.6 5.9
83 4 86 0.640 0.743 1.057 1.64 10.0 -8.9 61.2 8.0
83 5 82 0.627 0.764 1.070 2.07 11.7 -1.7 68.1 8.9
83 6 82 0.599 0.744 0.965 2.67 14.4 -4.5 67.7 12.1
85 1 23 0.613 0.776 1.059 2.41 4.1 4.7 53.1 3.8
85 2 23 0.436 0.693 1.142 5.41 7.5 -9.6 36.2 7.9
85 3 22 0.568 0.700 1.156 8.82 10.9 -10.2 41.2 12.2
85 4 22 0.649 0.701 1.348 12.22 14.5 -3.2 33.4 15.1
85 5 22 0.698 0.700 1.329 15.48 17.9 -11.8 41.5 20.1
85 6 22 0.588 0.680 1.305 19.11 22.8 -2.6 46.9 24.8
86 1 54 0.616 0.758 1.367 1.32 3.7 21.8 48.3 3.2
86 2 54 0.625 0.748 1.477 3.16 6.9 18.5 40.3 6.2
86 3 53 0.624 0.724 1.548 5.62 10.2 24.2 37.3 9.6
86 4 53 0.579 0.678 1.576 8.36 13.9 25.7 36.7 12.8
86 5 53 0.563 0.662 1.449 10.61 17.3 19.3 39.3 16.6
86 6 53 0.534 0.657 1.362 13.35 20.8 8.4 47.0 20.0
89 1 79 0.354 0.549 0.265 5.04 9.3 33.3 78.0 6.0
89 2 81 0.373 0.549 0.323 8.30 16.5 28.6 78.9 10.9
89 3 80 0.348 0.528 0.364 12.27 23.9 29.6 78.3 17.4
89 4 80 0.319 0.515 0.348 16.62 31.7 33.7 78.4 23.7
89 5 79 0.336 0.517 0.362 22.00 40.3 33.4 81.8 30.5
89 6 79 0.303 0.501 0.341 28.86 49.9 32.1 79.5 38.4
99 1 25 0.739 0.790 1.016 3.47 4.5 -4.0 47.4 4.5
99 2 25 0.587 0.707 1.011 7.12 9.6 -12.2 54.2 8.8
99 3 25 0.367 0.620 0.923 10.81 13.5 -10.6 41.3 13.4
99 4 25 -0.043 0.505 0.807 15.24 18.5 -5.1 44.3 17.1
99 5 24 -0.268 0.472 0.793 20.48 23.6 -15.1 45.3 24.4
99 6 24 -0.268 0.441 0.856 26.27 28.7 -11.7 34.4 30.0
100 1 82 0.604 0.742 0.949 0.34 3.8 -15.8 73.6 3.2
100 2 84 0.671 0.785 1.076 0.72 6.5 -23.8 71.8 5.4
100 3 83 0.681 0.797 1.131 1.72 8.8 -16.8 72.0 7.2
100 4 83 0.605 0.748 1.099 2.74 11.7 -9.1 68.6 9.8
100 5 82 0.519 0.700 1.062 3.30 14.6 -11.6 64.2 12.0
100 6 83 0.466 0.674 1.040 3.00 17.2 -8.6 64.0 13.3
101 1 87 0.556 0.738 0.860 0.75 4.0 -28.1 66.3 3.0
101 2 87 0.594 0.751 0.927 2.17 7.2 -35.3 65.7 5.0
101 3 87 0.581 0.737 0.940 3.96 10.5 -29.6 67.1 6.9
101 4 87 0.548 0.722 0.932 5.49 13.7 -31.7 64.4 9.1
101 5 87 0.502 0.688 0.894 7.33 17.2 -36.5 72.3 11.4
101 6 87 0.416 0.635 0.819 8.83 20.9 -37.7 71.4 13.9
102 1 57 0.575 0.710 0.352 1.04 5.2 -19.2 114.7 3.6
102 2 56 0.708 0.742 0.711 3.01 9.3 -39.6 120.8 6.9
102 3 55 0.763 0.744 0.808 5.37 13.5 -39.0 120.6 10.3
102 4 54 0.773 0.741 0.778 7.52 17.6 -48.2 118.9 13.9
102 5 54 0.787 0.736 0.773 9.96 21.8 -41.9 117.5 16.8
102 6 52 0.807 0.706 0.742 13.27 26.4 -25.5 112.2 19.6
103 1 202 0.100 0.469 NaN 4.10 6.0 29.5 76.8 4.7
103 2 201 0.083 0.456 NaN 9.44 12.2 22.5 75.4 10.0
103 3 200 0.112 0.447 NaN 14.07 17.6 19.9 72.1 15.1
103 4 198 0.130 0.441 NaN 18.64 22.7 16.1 68.7 20.1
103 5 193 0.113 0.432 NaN 23.38 28.0 21.5 66.0 25.6
103 6 198 0.051 0.432 NaN 27.05 32.4 23.0 66.9 29.9
104 1 125 0.419 0.604 0.891 2.89 6.1 6.4 68.9 4.9
104 2 126 0.492 0.627 1.028 5.79 11.5 0.7 61.3 9.5
104 3 124 0.496 0.624 1.077 8.91 17.0 8.6 63.4 14.0
104 4 122 0.509 0.624 1.095 12.58 22.2 -4.4 58.7 18.6
104 5 119 0.513 0.619 1.106 16.79 27.2 -3.9 59.3 22.5
104 6 119 0.563 0.630 1.095 20.21 31.1 1.8 66.7 24.7
116 1 106 0.269 0.555 0.660 1.87 5.4 2.7 65.6 4.4
116 2 106 0.262 0.548 0.767 3.10 9.3 3.6 63.6 8.4
116 3 105 0.171 0.515 0.789 4.02 12.9 -3.1 57.8 10.9
116 4 103 0.139 0.494 0.760 4.42 16.0 0.5 63.2 13.2
116 5 101 0.091 0.467 0.765 5.59 19.0 3.3 67.3 16.2
116 6 100 0.033 0.448 0.776 6.31 22.3 -1.0 65.3 17.4
117 1 9 0.073 0.558 0.769 5.06 6.2 -29.8 85.5 6.1
117 2 9 -0.064 0.580 0.601 10.21 12.1 -5.3 78.6 11.3
117 3 9 0.230 0.603 0.336 14.28 16.7 15.1 82.6 15.6
117 4 9 0.575 0.678 0.659 17.73 19.7 32.5 101.3 23.3
117 5 9 0.794 0.718 0.757 21.56 22.7 68.9 100.2 27.8
117 6 9 0.823 0.713 0.921 27.42 28.5 65.2 93.2 34.3
118 1 61 0.608 0.754 1.153 0.50 4.1 -18.8 63.1 2.9
118 2 62 0.632 0.736 1.222 1.48 7.4 -20.5 62.4 5.6
118 3 62 0.656 0.738 1.290 2.84 10.2 -8.1 54.0 8.2
118 4 62 0.620 0.712 1.298 3.54 13.0 -9.7 56.2 11.4
118 5 62 0.521 0.659 1.140 3.50 16.1 2.0 57.0 13.7
118 6 62 0.415 0.613 0.976 2.47 18.9 -3.5 63.6 16.8
119 1 71 0.448 0.689 0.718 0.06 4.0 -7.2 78.1 3.2
119 2 70 0.504 0.714 0.831 0.81 6.5 -5.7 71.8 4.9
119 3 71 0.572 0.758 0.904 1.40 8.3 0.1 69.3 6.2
119 4 71 0.613 0.778 0.904 2.28 10.1 -0.1 75.3 7.4
119 5 71 0.581 0.746 0.804 3.93 12.7 2.9 79.5 9.3
119 6 71 0.426 0.661 0.727 5.21 16.6 -1.8 78.6 11.4
120 1 121 0.550 0.753 0.947 0.02 3.6 -33.3 85.7 2.3
120 2 121 0.604 0.777 1.076 0.42 6.0 -54.1 84.7 3.8
120 3 119 0.635 0.794 1.107 1.31 7.8 -46.8 77.4 4.1
120 4 118 0.621 0.785 1.072 1.53 9.5 -48.5 76.8 5.3
120 5 117 0.581 0.761 0.991 1.84 11.5 -44.2 80.7 6.3
120 6 119 0.484 0.701 0.872 2.43 14.4 -40.7 83.3 7.7
121 1 29 0.441 0.680 0.625 1.46 4.1 -49.0 87.7 2.5
121 2 28 0.426 0.698 0.641 3.07 7.3 -35.8 79.1 4.1
121 3 29 0.224 0.608 0.668 4.60 11.5 -29.1 87.5 8.5
121 4 29 0.070 0.538 0.623 7.00 15.2 -51.0 99.1 10.5
121 5 29 -0.045 0.471 0.540 9.40 19.5 -45.9 109.1 13.3
121 6 29 -0.201 0.386 0.374 12.15 25.0 -50.0 111.0 17.7
135 1 42 0.349 0.561 1.104 1.13 4.9 -16.2 64.8 4.1
135 2 42 0.480 0.612 1.289 3.04 8.6 -14.9 65.3 7.5
135 3 41 0.539 0.636 1.172 5.04 12.3 -25.0 65.7 10.0
135 4 41 0.570 0.642 1.123 7.00 15.8 -21.4 73.7 13.7
135 5 40 0.651 0.670 1.086 7.97 17.6 -16.2 70.5 14.2
135 6 40 0.657 0.664 1.007 9.38 20.0 1.5 68.3 16.2
137 1 86 0.331 0.592 0.738 2.07 4.7 -13.3 62.9 3.4
137 2 86 0.404 0.608 0.858 3.93 8.0 -13.1 59.0 6.3
137 3 86 0.382 0.606 0.892 4.95 10.5 -12.6 55.6 9.2
137 4 86 0.354 0.612 0.846 5.36 12.8 -17.9 54.6 11.0
137 5 85 0.325 0.605 0.809 5.57 15.1 -10.8 49.6 12.6
137 6 85 0.322 0.620 0.770 5.07 17.1 -10.8 52.8 14.1
139 1 174 -0.070 0.323 0.127 -3.22 6.4 -7.0 95.6 4.9
139 2 147 -0.086 0.319 0.204 -5.25 11.3 -11.2 92.3 7.8
139 3 148 -0.101 0.314 0.212 -7.73 15.4 -13.9 89.2 11.0
139 4 146 -0.058 0.348 0.217 -9.64 17.9 -7.6 87.1 11.8
139 5 110 0.036 0.403 0.272 -7.37 18.0 -2.7 89.1 13.0
139 6 108 -0.034 0.380 0.227 -9.21 20.6 6.9 88.8 14.5
151 1 6 0.724 0.951 1.073 0.13 1.5 -7.5 24.5 1.4
151 2 6 0.819 0.960 1.424 0.85 2.5 -4.0 15.8 3.3
151 3 6 0.776 0.936 1.537 3.65 5.1 -5.0 8.9 6.3
151 4 6 0.844 0.949 1.818 4.37 6.3 -4.9 6.9 8.3
151 5 5 0.945 0.957 1.542 7.00 7.7 0.2 5.9 9.8
151 6 5 0.998 0.953 1.140 9.42 9.5 -0.1 13.3 12.9


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Last Modified 9 April 2001
Robert.Grumbine@noaa.gov

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