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Statistics for all months of 1993 by forecast lead

Number of observations Forecast lead Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
2294 1 0.345 0.571 0.544 1.37 5.3 -5.2 70.6 3.9
2277 2 0.358 0.567 0.610 3.22 9.8 -5.3 66.9 7.2
2268 3 0.362 0.570 0.644 4.84 13.4 -6.5 67.0 10.1
2257 4 0.351 0.561 0.636 6.38 17.0 -7.4 67.4 12.6
2229 5 0.333 0.548 0.621 8.03 20.4 -11.3 67.0 15.2
2221 6 0.327 0.539 0.580 9.82 24.2 -11.4 67.8 17.7

Forecasts at all lead time, scored by month for year 1993

Number of observations Month Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
-1 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
-1 2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
-1 3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
762 4 0.730 0.824 0.658 0.28 12.9 -27.6 64.2 8.8
1206 5 0.502 0.513 0.437 7.89 22.9 1.5 64.7 12.4
1388 6 0.706 0.750 0.761 6.96 13.4 6.8 58.6 10.8
2097 7 0.576 0.688 0.631 6.08 16.6 -3.8 71.1 11.4
1692 8 0.760 0.839 1.076 3.29 10.8 -20.0 64.6 7.9
1800 9 0.584 0.700 0.739 7.09 14.8 -15.5 65.9 11.1
1860 10 0.503 0.668 0.450 4.50 14.7 -1.8 69.1 10.7
1379 11 0.429 0.646 0.363 4.04 17.2 -6.6 76.6 11.8
1359 12 0.405 0.615 0.408 8.13 20.6 -10.6 71.1 14.6

Forecast verification by forecast point

Point Forecast Lead Observations Scalar correlation Index of agreement Vector correlation Distance Bias Distance RMS Angle Bias Angle RMS Error Radius
27 1 27 0.609 0.553 0.204 10.09 13.0 -35.1 93.4 10.3
27 2 28 0.803 0.576 0.317 20.21 25.4 -16.6 92.3 21.4
27 3 28 0.679 0.576 0.302 25.32 33.1 -25.7 96.0 28.4
27 4 28 0.392 0.535 0.174 28.88 41.6 -15.5 97.4 34.1
27 5 28 0.254 0.523 0.099 31.84 48.2 -18.5 96.5 38.3
27 6 28 0.178 0.522 0.045 37.01 55.4 -42.5 83.6 40.1
42 1 27 -0.518 0.235 1.028 0.82 7.1 29.0 115.6 4.6
42 2 27 -0.567 0.260 0.989 2.26 13.0 0.1 120.6 7.6
42 3 27 -0.539 0.301 0.997 4.96 18.1 -12.2 124.8 10.9
42 4 27 -0.543 0.313 0.985 8.76 22.9 -10.8 133.7 17.4
42 5 27 -0.617 0.339 0.912 13.61 27.7 -47.0 139.2 23.3
42 6 27 -0.516 0.419 0.745 18.77 32.0 -35.4 144.1 25.9
53 1 13 0.568 0.818 0.391 1.60 3.3 -106.9 108.7 1.3
53 2 13 0.505 0.826 0.552 2.76 5.6 -108.1 108.7 2.0
53 3 13 0.625 0.843 0.780 3.80 8.2 -109.3 110.1 3.4
53 4 13 0.761 0.877 0.949 4.64 9.9 -111.5 112.3 5.2
53 5 13 0.771 0.832 0.799 8.95 16.2 -112.7 113.6 8.6
53 6 13 0.680 0.760 0.629 16.26 28.1 -113.2 114.0 12.3
66 1 60 0.318 0.590 0.230 1.29 5.5 32.3 95.0 4.3
66 2 58 0.447 0.658 0.349 3.56 9.4 30.8 78.2 6.7
66 3 57 0.498 0.697 0.411 4.24 12.0 25.8 82.4 8.8
66 4 57 0.595 0.763 0.486 4.15 13.5 24.2 77.1 10.0
66 5 56 0.673 0.815 0.584 3.99 15.0 22.6 73.5 10.9
66 6 55 0.717 0.844 0.595 4.16 16.7 30.2 69.1 12.3
67 1 17 0.543 0.752 1.304 2.47 4.3 -23.9 51.3 4.1
67 2 15 0.497 0.704 1.294 6.79 9.3 -10.6 42.8 9.0
67 3 14 0.552 0.691 1.242 12.47 15.0 2.0 48.7 17.3
67 4 13 0.516 0.695 1.035 17.39 20.4 -23.7 36.1 21.0
67 5 12 0.233 0.681 0.625 20.80 25.6 -20.6 32.2 26.1
67 6 12 0.148 0.692 0.321 22.97 28.2 -19.8 34.6 26.6
68 1 111 -0.027 0.414 0.698 0.17 5.2 -7.2 70.3 4.3
68 2 115 -0.154 0.349 0.744 0.95 10.2 -4.9 70.4 8.0
68 3 114 -0.079 0.375 0.707 2.29 13.9 -12.4 75.6 11.5
68 4 116 -0.076 0.353 0.717 2.41 16.9 -10.9 73.6 13.5
68 5 115 -0.018 0.376 0.781 3.07 18.7 -15.3 72.4 16.3
68 6 113 -0.003 0.381 0.780 4.21 21.5 -11.1 71.5 18.4
69 1 33 0.088 0.491 0.347 1.54 4.5 -2.2 80.1 3.6
69 2 32 0.120 0.537 0.264 2.54 7.7 -0.1 69.8 4.8
69 3 32 0.157 0.563 0.259 3.05 10.6 4.0 70.8 6.8
69 4 31 0.134 0.571 0.144 3.46 12.2 -4.0 65.5 8.2
69 5 30 0.061 0.583 0.116 4.69 13.8 -10.3 59.7 10.1
69 6 29 0.035 0.597 0.140 6.41 14.9 -7.0 56.2 10.8
82 1 4 0.975 0.920 1.092 1.65 2.4 -2.3 17.8 2.8
82 2 4 0.935 0.975 1.867 2.47 2.9 -1.9 21.8 3.3
82 3 4 0.627 0.977 1.574 3.53 4.4 -7.0 15.5 4.9
82 4 4 -0.063 0.963 1.995 4.85 8.1 -8.6 15.2 7.3
82 5 4 0.093 0.957 1.957 6.35 10.8 -8.0 13.7 11.2
82 6 4 0.692 0.960 1.866 8.57 12.8 -7.2 11.4 12.1
83 1 107 0.183 0.528 0.418 0.90 5.8 3.5 68.3 4.2
83 2 105 0.274 0.568 0.530 2.46 9.5 8.0 64.0 7.9
83 3 104 0.286 0.568 0.677 4.28 12.9 3.3 61.9 10.7
83 4 104 0.206 0.530 0.660 5.45 16.2 4.0 59.0 13.6
83 5 104 0.114 0.493 0.701 6.18 19.7 12.1 59.8 16.5
83 6 104 0.084 0.478 0.765 6.55 22.8 1.7 53.9 19.5
85 1 35 0.542 0.720 1.286 0.25 3.6 0.4 45.9 3.3
85 2 36 0.463 0.683 1.403 1.59 6.8 1.8 37.8 7.3
85 3 36 0.398 0.654 1.404 3.13 9.5 -5.3 35.0 10.0
85 4 36 0.308 0.614 1.422 4.82 12.7 -1.9 39.1 13.3
85 5 36 0.240 0.590 1.434 7.08 15.7 -4.2 37.8 15.3
85 6 36 0.086 0.539 1.288 9.55 19.4 -7.3 38.4 18.9
87 1 86 0.502 0.699 0.606 -1.15 3.6 29.7 66.3 2.5
87 2 90 0.461 0.665 0.619 -2.95 7.2 32.9 62.3 5.2
87 3 91 0.493 0.687 0.636 -3.62 9.5 27.4 70.0 6.3
87 4 92 0.495 0.678 0.601 -4.48 11.5 29.7 70.7 7.8
87 5 94 0.488 0.681 0.564 -4.76 13.4 30.0 66.6 9.4
87 6 95 0.459 0.671 0.494 -4.63 15.4 34.1 66.8 10.8
89 1 38 -0.115 0.428 0.164 7.34 12.3 21.7 80.5 10.4
89 2 38 -0.062 0.442 0.396 13.89 21.3 30.9 79.4 16.7
89 3 38 -0.184 0.450 0.505 17.97 27.6 41.1 82.9 23.6
89 4 38 -0.297 0.447 0.597 22.15 33.5 24.2 82.8 30.7
89 5 38 -0.193 0.464 0.631 24.50 37.7 12.7 83.5 36.7
89 6 38 -0.169 0.460 0.572 26.15 41.8 23.3 85.5 39.8
98 1 37 -0.013 0.440 0.481 -0.50 6.6 -15.9 74.0 5.7
98 2 36 0.083 0.493 0.535 -0.35 10.7 -22.2 77.1 8.8
98 3 35 0.131 0.533 0.566 1.44 12.0 -14.4 72.6 11.2
98 4 34 0.235 0.600 0.649 3.74 12.4 -20.0 70.6 10.7
98 5 33 0.191 0.583 0.560 5.53 15.7 -9.5 75.0 12.8
98 6 32 0.291 0.612 0.479 7.09 18.2 -13.1 83.1 14.7
99 1 50 0.661 0.827 0.981 -0.23 2.8 11.5 56.9 2.4
99 2 50 0.740 0.864 1.081 0.21 4.2 17.4 53.9 4.1
99 3 50 0.734 0.862 1.131 0.34 6.0 18.5 49.6 5.3
99 4 49 0.698 0.845 1.119 1.14 8.1 12.6 46.5 6.9
99 5 50 0.722 0.849 1.079 1.78 9.8 17.0 44.5 8.3
99 6 50 0.710 0.831 0.980 3.11 11.6 18.7 49.5 10.2
100 1 60 0.681 0.704 1.238 3.12 5.0 -4.3 63.4 4.1
100 2 60 0.640 0.682 1.396 6.71 9.9 -3.5 48.2 9.6
100 3 60 0.668 0.677 1.399 9.61 13.9 -13.0 41.1 13.9
100 4 60 0.701 0.680 1.392 12.88 17.9 -13.3 42.5 18.2
100 5 60 0.745 0.684 1.398 16.26 21.7 -12.8 41.5 22.2
100 6 60 0.741 0.675 1.414 19.85 26.0 -16.9 45.2 27.8
101 1 239 0.567 0.744 1.070 0.56 4.1 0.5 63.1 3.5
101 2 240 0.549 0.733 1.159 1.41 7.4 3.4 60.4 6.7
101 3 242 0.526 0.717 1.184 1.91 10.5 1.0 58.0 9.5
101 4 242 0.471 0.688 1.170 2.29 13.4 0.9 59.9 11.8
101 5 242 0.401 0.647 1.094 2.53 16.4 -6.1 61.4 13.8
101 6 243 0.369 0.626 1.011 2.92 18.8 -7.9 62.8 15.4
102 1 144 0.490 0.687 0.208 1.17 3.9 10.0 90.1 3.2
102 2 142 0.497 0.691 0.258 2.51 7.0 15.9 88.8 5.9
102 3 139 0.536 0.715 0.262 3.76 9.2 6.2 91.2 8.0
102 4 136 0.609 0.749 0.242 5.33 11.2 -6.3 91.5 10.2
102 5 133 0.645 0.759 0.221 6.51 13.1 -16.0 89.9 11.9
102 6 134 0.664 0.761 0.200 7.25 15.0 -21.2 89.0 13.3
103 1 63 0.217 0.481 NaN 4.12 5.2 12.0 74.7 4.7
103 2 63 0.136 0.447 NaN 9.44 11.2 21.9 73.9 10.4
103 3 63 0.131 0.441 NaN 14.59 16.8 19.8 72.6 16.3
103 4 63 0.107 0.426 NaN 19.30 21.8 18.9 70.9 21.5
103 5 62 0.060 0.410 NaN 24.27 26.8 11.3 68.8 26.6
103 6 63 0.013 0.397 NaN 28.77 31.6 4.0 66.9 31.3
105 1 14 0.560 0.563 0.619 14.55 19.1 13.1 78.7 17.5
105 2 13 0.359 0.546 0.677 25.92 34.3 -0.5 85.2 31.5
105 3 13 0.415 0.561 0.840 38.85 47.6 -0.3 63.6 48.8
105 4 13 0.470 0.549 1.021 54.72 63.0 -21.3 65.4 71.8
105 5 13 0.502 0.538 1.276 70.44 78.9 -14.7 63.0 85.3
105 6 13 0.650 0.537 1.304 86.03 93.5 -5.0 62.6 96.9
117 1 33 0.495 0.728 0.949 0.40 2.3 1.1 29.2 2.5
117 2 33 0.626 0.811 1.056 0.40 3.8 4.4 27.3 3.8
117 3 33 0.627 0.822 1.004 0.02 5.3 4.0 26.8 5.7
117 4 33 0.625 0.826 0.929 -0.23 6.9 2.7 28.0 7.2
117 5 33 0.586 0.796 0.891 1.08 8.7 2.1 28.2 8.9
117 6 33 0.612 0.796 0.862 2.22 9.9 2.9 27.9 9.9
118 1 57 0.613 0.674 0.976 3.42 5.4 7.8 76.7 4.5
118 2 58 0.443 0.601 1.065 7.26 11.3 -6.5 62.7 9.2
118 3 58 0.364 0.560 1.088 11.63 17.2 4.1 64.7 16.2
118 4 58 0.300 0.543 0.969 15.65 23.0 5.2 65.2 21.8
118 5 58 0.299 0.548 0.855 19.81 28.1 3.8 68.0 26.1
118 6 58 0.308 0.555 0.722 23.72 32.8 5.1 64.4 28.8
119 1 24 0.714 0.767 0.713 2.38 4.3 -6.0 60.8 3.1
119 2 23 0.727 0.748 0.914 5.77 8.1 -7.9 63.5 6.1
119 3 22 0.625 0.709 1.034 8.05 11.2 -34.6 63.2 9.8
119 4 21 0.519 0.699 0.843 9.36 13.0 -12.5 66.2 10.4
119 5 20 0.179 0.657 0.660 11.44 16.2 -21.4 68.6 12.9
119 6 19 -0.312 0.585 0.767 12.86 19.8 -19.7 64.6 15.7
120 1 223 0.462 0.666 0.927 1.60 4.2 -28.0 67.2 3.0
120 2 224 0.515 0.679 0.989 3.18 7.0 -28.2 63.5 5.0
120 3 224 0.550 0.697 1.042 4.35 9.1 -24.9 64.0 6.5
120 4 224 0.545 0.699 1.019 5.67 11.6 -22.6 64.2 8.0
120 5 223 0.499 0.681 0.977 6.58 14.0 -23.0 66.0 9.9
120 6 224 0.463 0.664 0.913 7.63 16.5 -24.7 67.7 11.7
121 1 198 0.325 0.571 0.827 1.31 5.1 -23.0 66.2 3.6
121 2 197 0.365 0.589 0.955 3.32 9.0 -33.6 69.4 6.0
121 3 197 0.329 0.569 0.980 5.12 12.6 -32.3 70.7 8.1
121 4 195 0.281 0.547 0.987 7.02 16.0 -32.2 71.7 10.4
121 5 195 0.228 0.528 0.958 8.58 19.0 -41.0 74.3 12.7
121 6 195 0.239 0.541 0.911 9.91 21.3 -39.9 76.8 13.9
122 1 324 0.451 0.627 1.007 1.41 4.5 -16.7 59.3 3.7
122 2 318 0.438 0.608 1.137 3.27 8.3 -18.9 52.3 6.8
122 3 317 0.467 0.623 1.179 5.19 11.4 -18.0 52.0 9.4
122 4 315 0.499 0.635 1.201 6.54 13.6 -14.4 55.5 11.1
122 5 311 0.415 0.585 1.144 8.19 16.7 -23.1 55.3 13.4
122 6 307 0.349 0.555 1.074 9.85 19.6 -23.6 58.4 16.3
124 1 38 0.180 0.537 0.294 0.66 4.3 12.5 88.4 2.7
124 2 37 0.118 0.494 0.484 1.97 7.4 19.4 88.3 5.8
124 3 37 0.203 0.503 0.565 3.02 9.3 34.8 81.0 7.1
124 4 37 0.353 0.592 0.628 3.81 10.4 21.4 81.5 7.7
124 5 34 0.506 0.681 0.781 5.90 11.5 9.7 76.1 9.0
124 6 35 0.620 0.721 0.892 6.62 12.1 25.5 70.7 9.8
134 1 13 0.364 0.698 0.558 0.03 3.3 -7.7 66.7 2.8
134 2 13 0.745 0.861 0.733 0.64 4.6 -7.1 53.1 3.5
134 3 13 0.867 0.862 1.215 2.81 7.4 -18.1 47.1 5.9
134 4 13 0.876 0.828 1.495 5.43 10.5 -14.2 35.7 9.8
134 5 13 0.744 0.777 1.289 6.91 14.0 -5.4 37.6 13.4
134 6 13 0.639 0.739 1.116 8.78 18.0 0.6 38.2 17.8
136 1 40 0.274 0.620 1.111 0.82 4.4 -12.1 52.9 4.3
136 2 39 0.520 0.741 1.370 2.42 6.7 -5.4 42.9 6.8
136 3 40 0.528 0.730 1.408 4.44 10.0 -10.1 45.8 9.8
136 4 40 0.530 0.737 1.414 5.70 12.3 -10.7 39.1 11.4
136 5 39 0.485 0.726 1.419 6.49 14.2 -6.8 39.0 13.1
136 6 38 0.465 0.725 1.465 7.77 16.2 -3.1 39.0 14.9
137 1 23 0.103 0.537 0.810 1.38 4.2 -36.9 50.9 3.3
137 2 23 0.198 0.561 1.009 1.88 7.2 -41.7 49.1 5.7
137 3 23 0.181 0.592 1.100 2.56 9.2 -37.8 45.1 7.7
137 4 23 0.212 0.645 1.159 3.62 10.6 -37.0 45.6 9.7
137 5 23 0.258 0.686 1.272 4.61 11.6 -37.8 47.7 10.6
137 6 23 0.157 0.654 1.406 5.59 13.5 -39.6 49.9 11.4
138 1 30 0.323 0.622 0.671 0.75 4.9 -5.9 65.7 4.1
138 2 30 0.443 0.673 0.705 2.27 7.5 -14.3 63.8 6.0
138 3 30 0.496 0.711 0.730 4.02 9.7 -21.9 65.6 7.8
138 4 30 0.551 0.714 0.915 6.63 12.4 -15.8 64.7 11.5
138 5 30 0.571 0.712 0.941 9.04 15.2 -2.0 54.6 13.3
138 6 30 0.633 0.744 0.948 10.11 16.1 4.2 61.8 14.5
139 1 79 0.214 0.520 0.322 -2.47 6.2 1.0 78.7 4.1
139 2 69 0.396 0.643 0.498 -2.96 9.4 -9.0 68.7 6.6
139 3 68 0.267 0.584 0.406 -4.21 14.3 -0.9 69.8 8.7
139 4 67 0.297 0.596 0.362 -4.60 18.3 -13.8 69.9 10.8
139 5 56 0.353 0.606 0.351 -1.75 20.1 -6.7 61.0 14.1
139 6 54 0.488 0.654 0.388 2.14 20.5 -10.4 60.8 15.2
151 1 9 0.419 0.822 0.964 0.27 2.1 3.7 91.6 1.6
151 2 10 0.621 0.867 0.891 -0.78 2.6 4.0 91.1 2.4
151 3 10 0.407 0.800 0.905 -1.93 4.3 51.0 60.2 2.6
151 4 10 0.503 0.810 0.988 -2.48 6.8 31.2 43.2 6.5
151 5 10 0.603 0.814 0.742 -4.22 8.8 7.3 47.9 6.5
151 6 9 0.871 0.930 1.084 -3.87 7.1 21.4 44.3 5.6


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Robert.Grumbine@noaa.gov

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