Nearshore Wave Prediction System (Text)

The Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) provides on-demand, high-resolution nearshore wave model guidance to U.S. coastal WFOs, triggered in real time by forecast wind grids prepared and submitted by the individual offices. NWPS is maintained and developed by NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) in collaboration with a number of Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), as well as partners at NOAA/NOS, USGS and USACE.

Access the NWPS Model Viewer

Access the development parallel here

NWPS is driven by forecaster-developed wind grids produced in AWIPS, and wave boundary conditions from the operational WAVEWATCH III model. The nearshore wave model used is SWAN. Wave-current interaction is included using surface currents from the Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS-Global). Tides and storm surge are accounted for using the Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS, extratropical conditions), or the probabilistic model P-SURGE (tropical conditions). The computational grids have a nearshore resolution of 1.8 km-500 m. NWPS produces fields of integral wave parameters, wave spectra, and individually tracked wave systems (Gerling-Hanson plots). Experimental rip current and total water level guidance is produced at 5 pilot WFOs.

Access the NWPS Model Status Page

Coastal Hazards: Total Water Level Viewer

This tool displays experimental total water level and coastal change model guidance for select regions of the U.S. coastline using NWPS output and local beach characteristics (Courtesy of U.S. Geological Survey)

Monthly Validation - Southern and Eastern Regions

Below are the combined monthly validation statistics at all coastal data buoys in the NWS Southern and Eastern Regions respectively, computed as a 30-day, moving-window retrospective. For real-time validation, as well as buoy-specific validation statistics, please see the model validation viewer above.

Southern Region Validation Statistics Click to enlarge

Eastern Region Validation Statistics Click to enlarge

Southern Region Statistics History Click to enlarge

Eastern Region Statistics History Click to enlarge

Monthly Validation - Western, Pacific and Alaska Regions

Below are the combined monthly validation statistics at all coastal data buoys in the NWS Western, Pacific and Alaska Regions, computed as a 30-day, moving-window retrospective. For real-time validation, please see the model validation viewer above.

Western Region Validation Statistics Click to enlarge

Pacific/Alaska Region Validation Statistics Click to enlarge

Western Region Statistics History Click to enlarge

Pacific/Alaska Region Statistics History Click to enlarge

Follow Us

Sign up for the NWPS mailing list for updates and information on this system.

Follow the system development on our Wiki Page (authorization required).

References

Gibbs A., G. Dusek, A. J. van der Westhuysen, P. Santos, S. Stripling, S. Huddleston, E. Rivera-Acevedo, J. Estupinan, and H. Seim. Numerical Validation of a Coupled Probabilistic Rip Current Model and Nearshore Wave Prediction System for South Florida. Proc. 95th AMS Annual Meeting, Am. Meteor. Soc., Phoenix, 2015. Available here

Dusek G., A. J. Van der Westhuysen, A. Gibbs, D. King, S. Kennedy, R. Padilla, H. Seim, and D. Elder. Coupling a Rip Current Forecast Model to the Nearshore Wave Prediction System. Proc. 94th AMS Annual Meeting, Am. Meteor. Soc., Atlanta, 2014. Available here

Van der Westhuysen, A. J., A. A. Taylor, R. Padilla-Hernandez, A. Gibbs, P. Santos, D. Gaer, H. D. Cobb III, J. R. Lewitsky, and J. R. Rhome. Enhancements to the Nearshore Wave Prediction System to provide Coastal and Overland Hurricane Wave Guidance. Proc. 94th AMS Annual Meeting, Am. Meteor. Soc., Atlanta, 2014. Available here

Van der Westhuysen, A. J., R. Padilla-Hernandez, P. Santos, A. Gibbs, D. Gaer, T. Nicolini, S. Tjaden, E. M. Devaliere and H. L. Tolman. Development and validation of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System. Proc. 93rd AMS Annual Meeting, Am. Meteor. Soc., Austin, 2013. Available here

Gibbs, A., P. Santos, A. J. van der Westhuysen and R. Padilla-Hernandez. NWS Southern Region Numerical Optimization and Sensitivity Evaluation in Non-Stationary SWAN Simulations. Proc. 92nd AMS Annual Meeting, Am. Meteor. Soc., New Orleans, 2012. Available here

Settelmaier, J. B., A. Gibbs, P. Santos, T. Freeman, D. Gaer. Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) Modeling Efforts at the National Weather Service (NWS) Southern Region (SR) Coastal Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). Proc. 91st AMS Annual Meeting, Am. Meteor. Soc., Seattle, 2011. Available here

Upcoming features: Unstructured meshes

SWAN and WW3's unstructured grid functionality is currently being incorporated into NWPS. With flexible unstructured grids, computational time can be optimized by concentrating computational grid points only in those nearshore regions where it is required to adequately resolve physical processes at small spatial scales, as shown in the examples below. This new functionality is scheduled for September 2017.

Unstructured mesh over WFO Key West domain. Click to enlarge	Forecast guidance produced using NWPS (with SWAN wave model). Click to animate
Zoom of unstructured mesh over Key West. Click to enlarge	Forecast guidance over zoomed-in domain. Click to animate.