|
| Authors: |
Yung Y. Chao and Hendrik L. Tolman
MMAB/EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
yung.chao@noaa.gov
|
| Title: | Performance of NCEP Regional Wave Models in Predicting Peak Sea States during the 2005 North Atlantic Hurricane Season |
| Additional Bibliographic Information: | |
| Year: | 2010 |
| MMAB Contribution Number: | 283 |
| Keywords: | Validation of hurricane peak see state prediction |
| Status: | in review |
| Abstract: | Abstract Unprecedented numbers of tropical cyclones occurred in the North Atlantic
Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico in 2005. This provides a unique opportunity to
evaluate the performance of two operational regional wave forecasting models at
the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). This study validates
model predictions of the tropical cyclone generated maximum significant wave
height, simultaneous spectral peak wave period and the time of occurrence against
available buoy measurements from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC). The
models used are third-generation operational wave models WNA and NAH.
These two models have identical model physics, spatial resolution and domain,
with the latter model using specialized hurricane wind forcing. Both models
provided consistent estimates of the maximum wave height and period, with error
typically less than 20% and 30%, respectively, and timing errors of typically less
than 5h. Compared to these random errors, systematic model biases are negligible,
with a typical negative model bias of 5%. It appears that higher wave model
resolutions are needed to fully utilize the specialized hurricane wind forcing, and
it is shown that present routine wave observations are inadequate to accurately
validate hurricane wave models.
|
| Link: | /mmab/papers/tn283/WAF2222309_revised.pdf |
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