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Authors: Degui Cao, Hendrik Tolamn, H.S.Chen, Arun Chawla, Paul Wittmann NOAA/NCEP/EMC/MMAB, FNMOC
Title:Performance of the ocean wave ensmeble forecast at NCEP
Additional Bibliographic Information:.
MMAB Contribution Number:279
Keywords:wave, ensmeble forecast
Abstract: The operational global ensemble ocean wave forecast system (GEOWaFS) was updated at NOAA/NCEP running with the NOAA multi-grid WAVEWATCH III ocean wave model to replace the prior GEOWaFS running with NOAA WAVEWATCH III since June 1, 2008. The current GEOWaFS which has 20 ensemble members and makes up to ten days forecast is driven by the bias corrected wind forcing from the Global Forecasting System. The evaluations were made to compare the current and its prior GEOWaFS performances. The current system is shown to be a favor improvement over the old system by having slightly wider spread, catching more forecasting uncertainties and having more forecasting capacity. Verification for the current GEOWaFS will be presented at the conference. Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) is also running a 16 member WAVEWATCH III ensemble, forced by the Navy’s Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), running on the identical 1degree grid. FNMOC is planning to combine the FNMOC WW3 Ensemble Forecast System (EFS) with the NCEP GEOWaFS. Verification of the combine separate and joint WAVEWATCH III ensembles will also be presented.

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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Aug-2012 15:08:07 UTC